3Q26 memory pricing outlook broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ expectations, with stronger PC DRAM and slowing mobile DRAM growth

Overview

The report tracks August 2026 pricing for PC, server, and mobile DRAM as well as mobile NAND, comparing TrendForce forecasts with Goldman Sachs’ average selling price estimates for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. It concludes that 3Q26 DRAM/NAND pricing is broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ expectations, with stronger PC DRAM and a near-term slowdown in mobile DRAM due to elevated customer inventories, while prioritized capacity allocation to server DRAM and HBM continues to support medium-term pricing.

Core views

Overall, TrendForce raised its 3Q26 PC DRAM price forecast while maintaining its server and mobile DRAM forecasts. Goldman Sachs believes its own DRAM and NAND estimates are broadly consistent with TrendForce’s and reiterates Buy ratings on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The report’s core thesis is that although mobile purchasing momentum has temporarily weakened due to elevated customer inventories, suppliers continue to prioritize capacity allocation to server DRAM and HBM, constraining the supply of other memory products and thereby supporting overall pricing. PC DRAM is the relatively stronger segment in this update. In August 2026, prices for DDR4 8GB and DDR5 8GB modules both rose 2% month over month, from $139 and $130 to $142 and $133, respectively; DDR5 remained at a 6% discount to DDR4, unchanged from July. Based on this trend, TrendForce raised its forecast for the 3Q26 sequential increase in PC DRAM prices from 15%-20% to 18%-23%. This range is slightly above Goldman Sachs’ forecast of a 17% sequential increase in average 3Q26 PC DRAM prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Server DRAM trends are broadly consistent with Goldman Sachs’ view. In August, the DDR4 64GB module price remained at $1,295, while the DDR5 64GB module price rose 1% month over month to $1,500, widening DDR5’s premium over DDR4 from 15% in July to 16%. TrendForce continues to expect server DRAM prices to rise 13%-18% sequentially in 3Q26, broadly consistent with Goldman Sachs’ forecast of an 18% increase in average server DRAM prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Mobile DRAM continues to experience price increases, but at a markedly slower rate. TrendForce expects mobile DRAM prices to rise 8%-13% sequentially in 3Q26, below Goldman Sachs’ forecast of a 14% average increase for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix and significantly below the 70%-83% increase in 2Q26. The slowdown is attributable to elevated customer inventories, which have temporarily weakened purchasing momentum. TrendForce further expects the increase to slow to 0%-5% in 4Q26 but believes pricing can remain resilient in 2027 because suppliers are expected to continue prioritizing capacity for server DRAM and HBM. For NAND, 3Q26 eMMC/UFS 256GB contract prices rose approximately 20% sequentially, in line with Goldman Sachs’ forecast of a 15%-20% increase in overall NAND prices. The gap between spot and contract prices also indicates strong pricing for certain products: the DDR5 16Gb spot price is at a 16% premium to the latest contract price, while the DDR4 8Gb spot price is at a 43% premium to the latest contract price. These data corroborate the report’s conclusion that overall memory average selling prices in 3Q26 are broadly in line with expectations. On valuation and ratings, Goldman Sachs maintains Buy ratings on Samsung Electronics common and preferred shares. The common shares have a 12-month target price of W490,000, based on a 2026-2027E EV/EBITDA sum-of-the-parts valuation; the preferred shares have a 12-month target price of W360,000, based on a 27% target discount to the common shares, calculated as the average of the two-factor model discount and the average discount over the past month. SK Hynix has a 12-month target price of W3,500,000, based on average 2026E and 2027E earnings and a target P/E multiple of 9.0x. The key downside risks listed in the report include a significant deterioration in memory supply and demand. Samsung Electronics also faces risks from a sharp contraction in smartphone margins and loss of mobile OLED market share; SK Hynix additionally faces risks from delays in technology migration, weaker smartphone, PC, or server demand, progress in Samsung’s HBM business undermining its HBM revenue and profits, and a decline in AI-related capital expenditure reducing overall HBM demand.

Analysis framework

The report first examines monthly contract prices for various DRAM modules in August and the premium or discount of DDR5 relative to DDR4, then cites TrendForce’s price forecasts for 3Q26 and 4Q26 and compares them item by item with Goldman Sachs’ average selling price forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. It then uses customer inventories, purchasing momentum, and suppliers’ capacity allocation to server DRAM and HBM to explain the pricing trajectory of each product, before linking the analysis to target prices and ratings for the covered companies through sum-of-the-parts and P/E valuations.

Methodology notes

• (Method outside the vocabulary)

  Monthly memory price tracking and benchmarking against external forecasts

  The report tracks monthly contract prices for PC, server, and mobile memory, spot prices relative to contract prices, and DDR5 price differentials relative to DDR4, and compares TrendForce forecasts with Goldman Sachs’ estimates to determine whether price changes deviate from expectations.

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Analysis of inventories, purchasing demand, and supplier capacity allocation

  The report attributes the temporary weakness in mobile DRAM purchasing to elevated customer inventories, while using suppliers’ prioritized capacity allocation to server DRAM and HBM to explain constrained supply and supported pricing for other memory products.

• Valuation MethodSOTP Valuation

  2026-2027E EV/EBITDA sum-of-the-parts valuation

  Goldman Sachs uses forward segment EV/EBITDA valuations to determine the W490,000 12-month target price for Samsung Electronics common shares and applies a 27% preferred-share discount to derive the W360,000 target price for the preferred shares.

• Valuation MethodPE/PEG valuation

  Valuation based on average 2026E/2027E P/E

  Goldman Sachs uses average 2026E and 2027E earnings for SK Hynix and applies a target P/E multiple of 9.0x to derive a 12-month target price of W3,500,000.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Samsung Electronics（005930.KS）

  The report explicitly covers the company and reiterates a Buy rating; its memory business is linked to DRAM/NAND pricing and capacity allocation to server DRAM and HBM.

  Strengths

  3Q26 pricing for PC and server DRAM and NAND is broadly supported, with a 12-month target price of W490,000 for the common shares.

  Weaknesses

  Mobile DRAM purchasing is affected in the near term by elevated customer inventories.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs primarily compares TrendForce’s forecasts with its average DRAM price forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, without providing ASP differences between the two companies.

  Risks

  A significant deterioration in memory supply and demand, a sharp contraction in smartphone margins, and loss of mobile OLED market share.

• Samsung Electronics (Pref)（005935.KS）

  The report maintains a Buy rating, with the valuation linked to the Samsung Electronics common-share target price and the preferred-share discount.

  Strengths

  The 12-month target price is W360,000 and applies a 27% target preferred-share discount.

  Weaknesses

  Its fundamental risks are linked to Samsung Electronics’ business performance.

  Comparison

  The target discount is derived by averaging the discount calculated using a two-factor model and the average preferred-share discount over the past month.

  Risks

  Deterioration in memory supply and demand, contraction in smartphone margins, and loss of mobile OLED market share.

• SK Hynix Inc.（000660.KS）

  The report explicitly covers the company and reiterates a Buy rating; its performance is linked to conventional memory pricing, HBM demand, and the progress of technology migration.

  Strengths

  Server DRAM and HBM receive priority capacity allocation, and the report assigns a 12-month target price of W3,500,000.

  Weaknesses

  It is relatively sensitive to changes in smartphone, PC, server, and AI-related HBM demand.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs uses a 9.0x multiple on average 2026E/2027E earnings to determine the target price; ASP forecasts are mainly presented as averages for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

  Risks

  Deterioration in memory supply and demand, delays in technology migration, weaker end demand, progress in Samsung’s HBM business, and declining AI capital expenditure.

Key data

• 3Q26 PC DRAM price forecast+18%-23% qoqTrendForce raised its forecast from the previous +15%-20%; slightly above Goldman Sachs’ forecast of a +17% average increase for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
• August DDR4 8GB PC module price$142Up 2% month over month from $139.
• August DDR5 8GB PC module price$133Up 2% month over month from $130; at a 6% discount to DDR4, unchanged from July.
• 3Q26 server DRAM price forecast+13%-18% qoqTrendForce maintained its forecast; Goldman Sachs forecasts a +18% average increase for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
• August DDR4 64GB server module price$1,295Flat month over month.
• August DDR5 64GB server module price$1,500Up 1% month over month; at a 16% premium to DDR4, versus 15% in July.
• 3Q26 mobile DRAM price forecast+8%-13% qoqBelow +70%-83% in 2Q26 and also slightly below Goldman Sachs’ +14% forecast.
• 4Q26 mobile DRAM price forecast+0%-5% qoqTrendForce expects price growth to slow further.
• 3Q26 eMMC/UFS 256GB contract priceapproximately +20% qoqIn line with Goldman Sachs’ forecast of a +15%-20% increase in overall NAND prices.
• DDR5 16Gb spot price relative to contract price16% premiumRelative to the latest contract price.
• DDR4 8Gb spot price relative to contract price43% premiumRelative to the latest contract price.
• Samsung Electronics common and preferred share target pricesW490,000 / W360,000Both are 12-month target prices; the preferred-share target price applies a 27% discount relative to the common shares.
• SK Hynix target priceW3,500,00012-month target price based on average 2026E/2027E earnings and a target P/E multiple of 9.0x.

Impact & implications

The report believes overall memory pricing in 3Q26 remains on track with Goldman Sachs’ expectations, with PC DRAM performing slightly better while mobile DRAM enters a period of slowing price increases due to inventory effects. Suppliers’ prioritization of capacity for server DRAM and HBM should help maintain supply discipline for other products and support pricing in 2027, so Goldman Sachs continues to maintain positive ratings on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Risks

• A significant deterioration in memory supply and demand could affect both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
• Samsung Electronics faces the risk of a sharp contraction in smartphone margins.
• Samsung Electronics faces the risk of losing mobile OLED market share.
• SK Hynix faces risks from delays in technology migration and weaker smartphone, PC, or server demand.
• Positive progress in Samsung’s HBM business could affect SK Hynix’s HBM revenue and profits.
• A decline in AI-related capital expenditure could reduce overall HBM demand and affect SK Hynix’s HBM revenue and profits.

What to watch

• Monitor whether actual 3Q26 pricing for PC, server, and mobile DRAM and NAND reaches the forecast ranges presented in the report.
• Monitor whether mobile DRAM customer inventories and purchasing momentum improve.
• Monitor whether mobile DRAM price growth slows to 0%-5% in 4Q26 as TrendForce expects.
• Monitor whether suppliers continue to prioritize capacity allocation to server DRAM and HBM and how this arrangement supports pricing in 2027.
• Monitor AI-related capital expenditure, HBM demand, progress in Samsung’s HBM business, and SK Hynix’s technology migration.