China spirits sector: China spirits demand stayed soft during Mid-Autumn despite rising travel, while Moutai prices remained comparatively resilient

Overview

This weekly China spirits tracker assesses Mid-Autumn trading, channel collections and wholesale prices. Goldman Sachs concludes that stronger holiday travel did not overcome weak festive consumption, retail destocking and cautious channel behavior, although Moutai remained relatively resilient and value-oriented products held up better.

Core views

Goldman Sachs reports that Mid-Autumn travel activity improved but did not translate into broad spirits demand recovery. Cross-regional passenger mobility rose 12.2% year on year to 242 million on the first holiday day and 3.4% to 199 million on the second, taking the two-day total to roughly 442 million. Nevertheless, overall spirits sell-out declined year on year despite a low prior-year base. The report attributes this to soft retail demand, ongoing terminal destocking and cautious cash-collection cycles. A pronounced decline in mooncake and gift-card demand also pointed to subdued festive sentiment. Retailers experienced double-digit declines and many remained in clearance or liquidation mode, while distributor-level sales were flat to modestly lower, typically down 5%-10%. Channel strategy has shifted away from forced inventory loading toward bottle-opening and actual consumption, slowing prepayment collection. Moutai’s collection progress was above 80%; King’s Luck was more actively pursuing prepayments at 75%, although retail sales lagged; Gujing was above 70% while seeking to avoid restocking; and Yanghe, amid deep channel adjustments, remained below 60%. Fen Wine sell-through was almost flat, while demand for high-degree Guojiao 1573 remained weak. Retail inventory had normalized to one to two months, but distributor inventory for Guojiao and King’s Luck remained elevated at three to six months, versus about three months for Gujing. The report therefore expects destocking to remain the key focus through the rest of the year. Wholesale prices softened slightly overall but were largely stable. Feitian Moutai was supported by direct-channel adjustments and expanded direct-to-consumer supply through i-Moutai: original-case Feitian fell Rmb25 over the past week to Rmb1,730 per bottle and unpacked Feitian fell Rmb30 to Rmb1,710. Despite those weekly moves, both prices remained Rmb225 and Rmb220, respectively, above their beginning-2026 levels. Non-standard Moutai SKUs also declined modestly over two weeks: Zodiac and Jingpin each by Rmb5, Moutai 15 Years by Rmb10, and one-litre Feitian by Rmb15 per bottle. Common Wuliangye was flat at Rmb830 in Daily Spirits Prices but down Rmb7 to Rmb773 in Bairong Wholesale Market, while Guojiao 1573 was flat at Rmb825. Mid- and lower-tier brands saw marginal price slippage amid promotional discounting for banquet occasions. The report identifies relative resilience in mass-market products, especially those priced at Rmb100 or below, including Danya, Fenjiu Bofen and Gujing 5/8, as consumers favored value for money. It also notes that i-Moutai’s monthly active users reached 7.57 million in August, down 13% year on year and below the 9.4 million average in 2Q26, though still above the 5-7 million range before Feitian’s launch on the platform; the DAU/MAU ratio was 9%. Separately, JD.com reported liquor GMV up 15% year on year during August 20-September 25, with Moutai, Wuliangye, Jiannanchun and Jinsha up 22%, 8%, 15% and 46%, respectively. These online data points contrast with weaker offline and broader retail conditions rather than establishing a sector-wide recovery. For covered names, Goldman Sachs’ valuation table uses forward 2027E P/E multiples discounted back to mid-2027 at company-specific costs of equity. The stated frameworks include 23.4x and 8.5% for Kweichow Moutai, 16x and 7.8% for Wuliangye, 19.3x and 8.2% for ZJLD, 15x and 10.6% for Fen Wine, 15x and 8.3% for Luzhou Laojiao, 15x and 10.1% for King’s Luck, 15x and 8.2% for Gujing, 19.3x and 8.3% for Yanghe, 35x and 9.7% for Jiugui, and 19.3x and 10.9% for Swellfun. The report’s stated company-specific risks center on policy effects on banquet consumption, macro recovery, competition, channel inventory, wholesale-price movements, product execution and regional demand conditions.

Analysis framework

The tracker combines holiday mobility, channel checks on sell-through, collections and inventory, weekly wholesale-price observations, app usage and e-commerce data. It then places these observations alongside covered-company valuation frameworks and stated risks.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Channel checks of sell-through, inventory, collections and wholesale prices

  The report uses retail and distributor conditions to assess whether consumer demand is absorbing channel supply and whether destocking is progressing.

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  Forward 2027E P/E multiples discounted back to mid-2027 using company-specific costs of equity

  Target prices for covered companies are based on a selected forward earnings multiple, then discounted to the valuation date using a cost-of-equity assumption.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH)

  Covered premium-spirts name with comparatively resilient wholesale pricing despite expanded direct-to-consumer supply.

  Strengths

  Feitian prices remained resilient; collections were above 80%.

  Weaknesses

  Non-standard SKU prices trended lower and i-Moutai MAU declined year on year.

  Comparison

  More resilient pricing than broader sector wholesale trends.

  Risks

  Potential consumption-tax changes, environmental pollution, slower macro recovery, capacity constraints and US-rate volatility.

• Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ)

  Covered premium-spirts name affected by shipment-pacing volatility and softening wholesale prices.

  Strengths

  JD.com sales were reported up 8% year on year during the festival period.

  Weaknesses

  Wholesale pricing declined to Rmb773 in Bairong Wholesale Market.

  Comparison

  Less price-resilient than Moutai in the weekly tracker.

  Risks

  New-product rollout, super-premium competition, policy-driven demand recovery and shareholder-return execution.

• Jiangsu Yanghe (002304.SZ)

  Covered name undergoing deep channel adjustments.

  Strengths

  Its Mid-Autumn scan-to-win campaign exceeded 4 million cumulative participants as of September 23.

  Weaknesses

  Collection progress was below 60%.

  Comparison

  Collection progress lagged Moutai, King’s Luck and Gujing.

  Risks

  Policy-stimulus execution, Jiangsu competitive conditions and performance outside Jiangsu.

• Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery (603369.SH)

  Covered name with active prepayment collection but elevated distributor inventory.

  Strengths

  Prepayment progress was 75%.

  Weaknesses

  Actual retail sales lagged and distributor inventory remained high.

  Comparison

  Inventory remained higher than Gujing’s approximately three months.

  Risks

  More intense competition or weaker demand in Jiangsu, weaker distributor confidence and channel inventory.

• Anhui Gujing Distillery Co. (000596.SZ)

  Covered name pursuing collection progress while avoiding renewed inventory loading.

  Strengths

  Collection progress exceeded 70%; inventory was reduced to about three months.

  Weaknesses

  Must avoid restocking inventory amid soft demand.

  Comparison

  Distributor inventory was lower than for Guojiao and King’s Luck.

  Risks

  Prolonged banquet-consumption policy effects, weaker nationwide expansion and stronger Anhui competition.

• Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ)

  Covered premium-spirts name exposed to weak high-degree Guojiao 1573 demand.

  Strengths

  Guojiao 1573 wholesale price was flat at Rmb825 in the past week.

  Weaknesses

  High-degree Guojiao 1573 demand remained weak; distributor inventory was high.

  Comparison

  Price was steadier than Wuliangye in the weekly observations.

  Risks

  Policy impact on banquet consumption, product cultivation and wholesale-price effects on average selling price.

• Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine (600809.SH)

  Covered value-oriented spirits name with relatively stable sell-through.

  Strengths

  Sell-through was almost flat and value products such as Bofen were relatively resilient.

  Weaknesses

  Broader festive demand remained muted.

  Comparison

  Value-for-money products outperformed higher-end demand trends.

  Risks

  Policy impact on banquet consumption, macro recovery and Qinghua 26/30 performance.

• Jiugui Liquor Co. (000799.SZ)

  Covered spirits name within the weaker channel-demand environment.

  Risks

  Channel-inventory improvement, wholesale-price stabilization—especially Neican—and commercial-banquet demand recovery.

• Sichuan Swellfun Co. (600779.SH)

  Covered spirits name; one of the relatively better weekly stock-price performers.

  Strengths

  The report identified Swellfun as up 3% in the September 17-24 week.

  Comparison

  Along with ZJLD, it outperformed other China spirits names in the week.

  Risks

  Diancang expansion, Tianhaochen mass-market penetration and inventory digestion.

• ZJLD (06979.HK)

  Covered Hong Kong-listed spirits name; relatively better weekly stock-price performer.

  Strengths

  The report identified ZJLD as up 2.5% in the September 17-24 week.

  Comparison

  Along with Swellfun, it was among the relatively better China spirits performers that week.

  Risks

  Competition in upper mid-end spirits, duration of policy effects on banquet consumption and product-launch cultivation.

Key data

• Two-day cross-regional passenger mobilityApproximately 442 million242 million on Day 1, up 12.2% year on year; 199 million on Day 2, up 3.4% year on year.
• Retail and distributor salesRetail double-digit declines; distributors flat to down 5%-10%Mid-Autumn channel checks indicated weak demand and continued destocking.
• Feitian Moutai wholesale pricesRmb1,730 original case; Rmb1,710 unpackedDown Rmb25 and Rmb30 week on week, but Rmb225 and Rmb220 above beginning-2026 levels.
• i-Moutai August MAU7.57 millionDown 13% year on year versus 9.4 million average MAU in 2Q26; DAU/MAU was 9%.
• JD.com liquor GMV+15% year on yearDuring August 20-September 25.

Impact & implications

Goldman Sachs sees a sector still governed by weak consumption and inventory digestion rather than holiday mobility. Moutai’s comparatively resilient pricing and mass-market demand offer relative bright spots, but the report indicates that collection discipline, distributor inventory and wholesale-price stability remain important for the rest of the year.

Risks

• A slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery and policy effects on banquet consumption could prolong weak spirits demand.
• Persistent distributor inventory, weaker distributor confidence and wholesale-price pressure could delay channel normalization.
• More intense regional or premium-segment competition and weaker-than-expected product execution are stated risks for covered companies.

What to watch

• Retail sell-through, distributor collections and the pace of destocking through the remainder of 2026.
• Feitian Moutai, Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 wholesale-price trends.
• The durability of value-product demand and the divergence between online sales growth and offline channel conditions.
• i-Moutai user activity and the effects of expanded direct-to-consumer supply.