Moutai wholesale prices remain resilient, but premium-baijiu demand is downtrading and Mid-Autumn expectations are weak

Overview

This report tracks recent wholesale prices, channel inventory, product mix, company performance, and the outlook for the Mid-Autumn Festival peak season in China's baijiu industry. The key observation is that Feitian Moutai and non-standard products are supported by controlled supply releases and low channel inventory, keeping wholesale prices resilient; however, premium-baijiu demand is weak, with consumption shifting toward more cost-effective mid-range and banquet products.

Core views

Within the high-end segment, Feitian Moutai wholesale prices edged up, while prices for non-standard products also strengthened, reflecting effective supply-pace control. Wholesale prices for Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 remain weak. The premium segment shows clear product-mix downtrading: King's Luck's mid-range and banquet products have relatively resilient demand; Gujinggong's Gu 16 performs well while Gu 20 demand declines; and Shede's declines in mid- to high-end products have widened. Expectations for terminal sell-through across regions remain low ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival.

Analysis framework

Weekly tracking based on channel checks, wholesale-market prices, companies' 2Q disclosures, National Bureau of Statistics retail data, i-Moutai user data, and comparable-company valuation tables.

Methodology notes

• Channel trackingWeekly wholesale-price indicators

  Using wholesale prices and channel policies to assess near-term industry conditions

  The report uses red, yellow, and green to indicate negative, neutral, and positive signals, respectively; simultaneous price increases for original-case and loose-bottle Feitian Moutai are viewed as positive.

• Valuation methodsGoldman Sachs Factor Profile

  Relative ranking of growth, financial returns, and valuation multiples

  Standardized rankings and percentiles for forward sales, EBITDA, EPS, ROE, ROCE, and multiple valuation metrics are used to compare stocks' relative attributes.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS)

  Core tracking name for high-end baijiu prices and channel inventory

  Strengths

  Supply of Feitian and non-standard products is controlled, channel inventory is low, and wholesale-price performance is resilient.

  Weaknesses

  Demand visibility before the Mid-Autumn Festival is limited, and the pace of subsequent volume releases through i-Moutai remains to be seen.

  Comparison

  Recent wholesale-price performance is stronger than that of Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573.

  Risks

  Increased festival supply releases, weaker-than-expected end demand, or a rebound in channel inventory.

• Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ)

  Comparable high-end baijiu name

  Strengths

  The company is advancing share repurchases.

  Weaknesses

  Wholesale prices remain weak.

  Comparison

  Recent performance is weaker than Feitian Moutai's price resilience.

  Risks

  Pressure on the pricing system and weak demand.

• Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ)

  Comparable high-end baijiu name

  Strengths

  Guojiao 1573 has introduced scan-code promotions to support terminal sell-through.

  Weaknesses

  Guojiao 1573 wholesale prices remain flat at Rmb825/bottle, with no material improvement.

  Comparison

  Wholesale-price performance is weaker than Moutai.

  Risks

  Stepped-up promotions may reflect terminal-demand pressure.

• Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery (603369.SS)

  Premium-baijiu tracking name

  Strengths

  2Q 2026 revenue and net profit grew 14% and 19% YoY, respectively, exceeding expectations; demand for mid-range and banquet products is relatively resilient.

  Weaknesses

  Premium products including 2Kai, 4Kai, and the V series weakened.

  Comparison

  Recent share-price performance has been relatively strong versus other baijiu stocks.

  Risks

  Further product-mix downtrading and weak growth in customer advances.

• Anhui Gujing Distillery Co. (000596.SZ)

  Regional baijiu and product-mix tracking name

  Strengths

  Sell-through in the Hefei market has improved, and Gu 16 is growing rapidly.

  Weaknesses

  Retail demand for Gu 20 declined by more than 20%, as consumption shifted toward lower-priced products.

  Comparison

  Gu 16 and Gu 8 are more resilient than higher-priced products.

  Risks

  Insufficient demand for high-end products and regional recovery remaining below 2024 levels.

• Jiangsu Yanghe (002304.SZ)

  Comparable premium-baijiu name

  Strengths

  No sufficient positive operating evidence.

  Weaknesses

  Demand for Haizhilan has declined more significantly.

  Comparison

  Weaker than King's Luck's demand performance for mid-range and banquet products.

  Risks

  Weak regional demand and product-mix pressure.

• Jiugui Liquor (000799.SZ)

  Comparable premium-baijiu name

  Strengths

  No sufficient positive operating evidence.

  Weaknesses

  The report's valuation table shows a target price below the then-current share price.

  Comparison

  Premium brands as a whole are under pressure amid industry demand downtrading.

  Risks

  Weak demand and valuation de-rating risk.

• Sichuan Swellfun Co. (600779.SS)

  Comparable premium-baijiu name

  Strengths

  No sufficient positive operating evidence.

  Weaknesses

  The report's valuation table shows a target price below the then-current share price.

  Comparison

  Faces consumption downtrading alongside other premium brands.

  Risks

  Peak-season sell-through below expectations.

Key data

• Feitian Moutai original-case wholesale priceRmb1,710/bottleAs of August 16, 2026, up Rmb5 over the past two weeks.
• Feitian Moutai loose-bottle wholesale priceRmb1,695/bottleAs of August 16, 2026, up Rmb10 over the past two weeks.
• Feitian Moutai channel inventoryBelow approximately one monthChannel checks indicate inventory remains low, with shipment pace controlled.
• i-Moutai monthly active users7.39 millionJuly 2026 MAU, up 1% YoY; June was 7.97 million.
• Tobacco and alcohol retail salesRmb3,966bnUp 12.4% YoY in January-July 2026; July alone was Rmb430bn, up 6% YoY.
• Shede 2Q 2026 revenueRmb806mnDown 28.4% YoY, with net profit turning to a Rmb86mn loss.

Impact & implications

Supply discipline and low inventory temporarily reduce downside risk to Moutai wholesale prices and help high-end brands maintain their pricing systems; however, downtrading in premium-baijiu demand means companies reliant on higher-priced products may still face pressure on revenue, margins, and channel destocking. If Mid-Autumn Festival group-purchase demand does not improve, near-term industry recovery may be constrained.

Risks

• Mid-Autumn Festival group-purchase and gifting demand falls below expectations.
• Increased pre-festival supply releases put pressure on Moutai wholesale prices.
• Rising channel inventory or weaker distributor prepayments.
• Continued decline in demand for premium products and a further product-mix shift toward mid- and lower-priced offerings.
• Greater promotional intensity could erode pricing systems and profitability.

What to watch

• Supply volumes and wholesale-price changes for Feitian Moutai and non-standard products before the Mid-Autumn Festival.
• Distributor prepayments, quota shipments, and inventory levels in key regions such as Henan and Shandong.
• Incremental i-Moutai supply releases from late August through September, as well as the proportion of annual Feitian quota released.
• Visibility on group-purchase demand and feedback on Mid-Autumn Festival terminal sell-through.
• Product mix and channel-destocking progress at King's Luck, Gujinggong, Yanghe, and Shede.
• Whether Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 wholesale prices can stabilize.