China spirits demand expectations weaken ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival, with overall muted wholesale prices

Overview

This report tracks channel demand ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival in China’s baijiu market, wholesale prices, i-Moutai user activity, and industry news. The core conclusion is that although policy effects created a low base in 2025, the outlook for baijiu sell-through during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival remains weak. Dealers have lowered their expectations for premium liquor retail growth, and brand-side pre-holiday channel actions have also been relatively restrained. On pricing, Feitian Moutai remains relatively stable, but Wuliangye, Guojiao 1573, and some non-standard Moutai products still appear weak.

Core views

The report’s core views include: first, demand expectations weakened ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival, with dealer feedback showing that expected retail growth for Moutai and Wuliangye was cut from 20%~30% to 10%~20%; second, Feitian Moutai wholesale prices and inventory remain relatively resilient, but non-standard Moutai is still under pressure due to factors such as increased i-Moutai supply; third, Puwu and Guojiao 1573 wholesale prices lack upward momentum, and Puwu has also been disturbed by 618 subsidy pressure in some wholesale markets; fourth, the Dragon Boat Festival itself has limited seasonal impact on baijiu consumption, while the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday are the more critical windows for judging whether industry demand has reached an inflection point.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses channel tracking and high-frequency price monitoring, combined with dealer feedback, pre-Dragon Boat Festival stocking pace, brand channel actions, wholesale prices of core products such as Feitian Moutai and Puwu, i-Moutai APP user activity, and industry regulatory and company events, to assess short-term demand and channel confidence in China’s baijiu market.

Methodology notes

• Channel and high-frequency data trackingDealer feedback and wholesale price tracking

  Observe the strength of baijiu sell-through through pre-holiday dealer expectations, stocking pace, channel inventory, and wholesale price changes of core products.

  The report combines signals such as weak brand actions ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival, lowered dealer growth expectations, low Feitian Moutai inventory, and soft wholesale prices for Puwu and Guojiao 1573 to conclude that short-term channel sentiment remains cautious.

• User activity trackingi-Moutai APP tracker

  Use i-Moutai APP MAU, DAU/MAU penetration, and transaction data to observe online channel heat and changes in supply of non-standard Moutai products.

  The report cites Quest Mobile data showing that i-Moutai MAU was 10.2 million in May and 10.1 million in April, down from the 1Q26 average of 18 million, but still above the 4Q25 level.

• Equity attribute frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Compare stocks versus the market and industry peers across four dimensions: growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentile ranking.

  This framework is part of Goldman Sachs' stock analysis tools disclosed in the appendix. It is not the primary evidence for this Dragon Boat Festival demand assessment, but is included to illustrate Goldman Sachs' general comparison methodology for covered stocks.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS)

  Core premium baijiu name; the report focuses on tracking wholesale prices for Feitian Moutai and non-standard SKUs as well as i-Moutai channel data.

  Strengths

  Feitian Moutai wholesale prices are broadly stable, channel inventory in East China is below one month, and i-Moutai activity remains above 4Q25 levels.

  Weaknesses

  Prices of non-standard SKUs are soft, with Zodiac Moutai and 1L Moutai declining, possibly affected by increased i-Moutai supply.

  Comparison

  Compared with Puwu and Guojiao 1573, Feitian Moutai shows stronger price stability; the report also notes that Moutai’s share price rose 1.5% last week, a relatively good performance.

  Risks

  If i-Moutai supply continues to increase or holiday demand falls short of expectations, non-standard SKUs and channel price spreads may remain under pressure.

• Wuliangye Yibin

  An important name to watch for Dragon Boat Festival demand expectations and Puwu wholesale prices.

  Strengths

  The report still treats it alongside Moutai as a core observation target for premium liquor retail growth expectations.

  Weaknesses

  Dealers lowered retail growth expectations for Moutai/Wuliangye; Puwu wholesale prices declined under some benchmarks and were affected by 618 subsidy pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared with Feitian Moutai, Puwu wholesale prices performed more weakly, with the Bai Rong wholesale market benchmark falling to Rmb760/bottle.

  Risks

  If subsidy pressure and channel inventory pressure persist, wholesale prices and channel profitability may remain under pressure.

• Luzhou Laojiao / Guojiao 1573

  One of the tracked names for premium baijiu pricing.

  Strengths

  Guojiao 1573 wholesale prices held at Rmb840/bottle over the past two weeks.

  Weaknesses

  Prices lack upward momentum and broadly reflect the weak baijiu channel demand environment.

  Comparison

  Guojiao 1573 is also at Rmb840/bottle, the same as Puwu under the Daily Spirits Prices benchmark, but lacks stronger price catalysts.

  Risks

  Weak Dragon Boat Festival sell-through or continued softness in premium liquor demand could affect subsequent wholesale price stability.

• China Spirits coverage universe

  The report covers China spirits-related companies, including Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanghe, Gujing Gongjiu, Jiuguijiu, Shuijingfang, and Jinhuiyuan, among others.

  Strengths

  Some leading names have brand strength, low inventory, or channel control capabilities, giving them relative defensiveness.

  Weaknesses

  Overall pre-holiday demand and dealer confidence across the industry are weak, and price trends lack clear improvement.

  Comparison

  The report notes that Moutai and Laobaigan performed relatively well in share price terms last week, but the overall sector still needs to wait for a demand inflection point.

  Risks

  Policy impacts, weak consumer demand, channel subsidies, counterfeit alcohol regulatory events, and holiday sell-through below expectations could all weigh on sector performance.

Key data

• Dragon Boat Festival retail growth expectationsExpected retail growth for Moutai/Wuliangye of 10%~20%Early dealer feedback indicates expectations were lowered from the previous 20%~30%.
• 2025 low-base backdropPremium liquor declined by double digits, upper-mid-end liquor declined by high double digitsThe report says policy impacts created a low base in 2025, but the outlook for the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival remains weak.
• Feitian Moutai wholesale price rangeAbout Rmb1,635~Rmb1,670/bottleWholesale prices are broadly stable, with channel inventory in East China below one month.
• Two-week change in case-pack Feitian MoutaiFrom Rmb1,675 down to Rmb1,670/bottleDown Rmb5/bottle over the past two weeks.
• Two-week change in loose-bottle Feitian MoutaiRmb1,635/bottleBasically flat over the past two weeks.
• Two-week change in non-standard Moutai SKUsZodiac Moutai down Rmb60/bottle, 1L Moutai down Rmb30/bottleBoutique Moutai and 15-year Moutai were basically flat.
• Puwu wholesale priceRmb840/bottle or Rmb760/bottleThe Daily Spirits Prices benchmark is Rmb840/bottle; the Bai Rong wholesale market benchmark fell to Rmb760/bottle, affected by 618 subsidy pressure.
• Guojiao 1573 wholesale priceRmb840/bottleBasically flat over the past two weeks.
• i-Moutai monthly active users10.2 million in May, 10.1 million in AprilUp 4.4% and 0.4% year over year, respectively, below the 1Q26 average of 18 million but above the 5 million~7 million in 4Q25.
• i-Moutai DAU/MAU11% in both May and AprilShowing stable user activity penetration.
• Industry regulatory event75.2 thousand counterfeit alcohol products investigated and handledAccording to an announcement by the State Council Food Safety Office, 52 cases were formally investigated, and 5 companies and 36 sales platforms were shut down.
• Weekly share price performanceMoutai +1.5%, Laobaigan +0.9%The report says these were among the relatively better-performing names in China’s baijiu sector last week.

Impact & implications

The report’s short-term implications for China’s baijiu sector are cautious: the low base has not brought sufficiently strong improvement in pre-holiday sell-through, and both channel restocking and brand promotional actions remain unenthusiastic, indicating dealers still lack confidence in end demand. The relative stability and low inventory of Feitian Moutai provide some support for premium liquor, but weak wholesale prices for Puwu, Guojiao 1573, and non-standard Moutai SKUs suggest that the pricing system and channel profitability remain under pressure. If wholesale prices, inventory, and dealer expectations fail to improve ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, sector valuation recovery may remain constrained.

Risks

• Actual Dragon Boat Festival sell-through falls below dealers’ already lowered expectations.
• The Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday fail to confirm a demand inflection point.
• Wholesale prices for Puwu, Guojiao 1573, and non-standard Moutai SKUs continue to weaken.
• 618 subsidies, shipment suspensions, or channel price inversion disrupt the wholesale pricing system.
• Increased i-Moutai supply exerts continued pressure on wholesale prices of non-standard Moutai SKUs.
• Regulatory events involving counterfeit alcohol products affect consumer confidence or channel order.
• The policy environment again affects consumption occasions for premium baijiu.

What to watch

• Actual end-market sell-through of Moutai, Wuliangye, and Guojiao 1573 during the Dragon Boat Festival.
• Dealer stocking pace, brand channel policies, and wholesale price changes ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday.
• Whether case-pack and loose-bottle Feitian Moutai wholesale prices continue to hold within the Rmb1,635~Rmb1,670/bottle range.
• Whether channel inventory in core regions such as East China remains low.
• Whether the wholesale price gap for Puwu between the Daily Spirits Prices benchmark and the Bai Rong wholesale market benchmark narrows.
• Whether i-Moutai MAU, DAU/MAU, and transaction volume continue to decline or rebound.
• Channel policy signals following Wuliangye’s June 26 shareholders’ meeting and management changes.
• The intensity of follow-up regulatory crackdowns on counterfeit alcohol and so-called special-supply liquor.