Baijiu and restaurant demand is repairing sequentially, Moutai leads the rebound, and differentiation among other liquor names is widening

Overview

This report summarizes the key points from Goldman Sachs' March 30 expert call with major baijiu and restaurant distributors in Central China. Experts believe that although baijiu demand after the 2026 Spring Festival is still affected by the lingering anti-corruption policy impact, the decline narrowed month-on-month in March; restaurant demand has continued to improve since October 2025, and restaurant closures and transfers have clearly decreased versus earlier levels. The industry's recovery is not unfolding evenly: Moutai is in a leading position thanks to market-oriented reforms, the i-Moutai direct-sales platform, and volume-control and price-stabilization measures; Wuliangye is repairing its channels by suspending shipments and digesting historical burdens; while Luzhou Laojiao and Fen Wine face a longer recovery path because some products still carry inventory pressure.

Core views

The core views are: first, baijiu and restaurant demand are recovering in an orderly manner, but they are still in a recovery phase after policy disruption; second, Moutai's Feitian wholesale price, channel inventory, and prepayment progress indicate stronger resilience than peers; third, Wuliangye is sacrificing shipment cadence in the short term to secure price and inventory health, which may pressure reported results but improve medium-term quality; fourth, the inventory pressure and softer sell-through at some liquor companies such as Luzhou Laojiao and Fen Wine imply that industry differentiation will widen; fifth, in beverages, Nongfu's new-product strategy is clearly tiered, with electrolyte water acting as a channel defense item and iced tea requiring further peak-season sell-through validation.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses an expert call and channel research framework, judging short-term operating trends in China's baijiu, restaurant, and beverage industries through distributor observations on Spring Festival sell-through, prepayments, shipment cadence, channel inventory, wholesale prices, restaurant closures, and new-product rollouts.

Methodology notes

• channel researchExpert conference call

  Assess demand, inventory, and price changes through front-line feedback from major baijiu and restaurant distributors.

  This method can capture channel sell-through and inventory pressure before reported results are released, but the conclusion depends on a single regional expert sample and needs to be combined with broader channel data when extrapolated nationwide.

• factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs compares stock characteristics using growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentile ranks.

  The disclosure appendix states that this framework calculates percentiles based on forecast sales, EBITDA, EPS, ROE, ROCE, CROCI, and valuation metrics, but this report body does not show specific company factor scores.

• m&a assessmentM&A Rank

  Goldman Sachs rates the likelihood of a covered company becoming an acquisition target on a scale from 1 to 3.

  The appendix explains that Level 1 indicates a relatively high acquisition probability, Level 2 indicates a medium probability, and Level 3 indicates a lower probability; this report does not use the framework to make specific judgments on baijiu or beverage companies.

• database toolQuantum

  Goldman Sachs' proprietary database used to query historical financial statements, forecasts, and ratios.

  The appendix mentions that Quantum can be used for deep dives on individual companies and cross-company comparisons, but the excerpt here does not provide specific Quantum data tables.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Moutai

  Recovery leader in baijiu and the report's core positive case

  Strengths

  Strong Feitian sell-through during the Spring Festival, low channel inventory, high prepayment progress, significant i-Moutai sales contribution, and destocking of non-standard SKUs all help stabilize the price system.

  Weaknesses

  After April shipments resume, wholesale prices may still fluctuate, and non-standard products still need continued consignment and destocking to test channel quality.

  Comparison

  Compared with other baijiu companies, Moutai is seen as benefiting earlier from market-oriented reforms and the growth of its direct-sales platform.

  Risks

  Ongoing anti-corruption policy impact, wholesale price volatility, and non-standard product destocking falling short of expectations.

• Wuliangye

  An inventory-clearing and price-repair name

  Strengths

  Suspending shipments to support Puwu wholesale prices, with strong sell-through in some regions such as Chengdu and Sichuan and some share gains during the Spring Festival.

  Weaknesses

  Historical prepayment burdens and inventory at large distributors still need time to digest, and short-term reported results may remain under pressure.

  Comparison

  Recovery quality may be better than liquor names still pushing inventory, but current certainty is weaker than Moutai.

  Risks

  Inventory destocking cycle longer than expected, insufficient price support, and shipment suspension pressure on revenue recognition.

• Luzhou Laojiao

  A baijiu company that needs cautious monitoring

  Strengths

  The nationwide rollout plan for low-proof Guojiao 1573 and shipment control for high-proof Guojiao show that the company is also adjusting its channel pace.

  Weaknesses

  Some SKUs may still face inventory push pressure, and high-proof Guojiao sell-in fell by about 30% during the Spring Festival.

  Comparison

  Compared with Moutai and Wuliangye, its recovery path depends more on subsequent channel inventory digestion and sell-through improvement.

  Risks

  Insufficient conversion from new-product rollout, continued channel inventory pressure, and pressure on the price system.

• Fen Wine

  A baijiu company facing relatively greater recovery challenges

  Strengths

  The 2026 sales target is still around 5% growth.

  Weaknesses

  Experts believe Q1 deliveries are challenging and channel sell-through momentum is weak.

  Comparison

  Compared with Moutai's strong channel resilience and Wuliangye's active destocking, Fen Wine needs more evidence of sell-through improvement.

  Risks

  Difficulty achieving sales targets, channel inventory buildup, and a longer recovery period.

• Nongfu

  A beverage company to watch for new products and peak-season sell-through

  Strengths

  First-quarter growth was about 15%, with large-package water, juice, and functional beverages all achieving double-digit growth; iced tea carries higher strategic importance.

  Weaknesses

  Electrolyte water is more of a defensive SKU and may have limited impact on growth.

  Comparison

  Relative to baijiu companies, Nongfu's key variables are more about new-product rollout, channel selection, and peak-season retail momentum.

  Risks

  New-product sell-through below expectations, insufficient channel coverage efficiency, and competitive promotion pressure.

Key data

• Change in baijiu demand after the Spring Festivaldown by more than about 15%Experts observed a decline in baijiu demand after the Spring Festival, but the drop narrowed month-on-month in March.
• Estimated Q1 i-Moutai salesabout RMB20 billionExperts estimate that i-Moutai contributed about RMB20 billion in sales in Q1 2026.
• i-Moutai transacting users3.98 millionIf calculated at three bottles of Feitian 500ml per user, that corresponds to about RMB19 billion in sales.
• Expected Feitian Moutai wholesale price rangearound RMB1,500 to RMB1,600Experts expect the wholesale price to remain resilient even if it fluctuates after April shipment execution.
• Moutai Q1 prepayment progressabout 40%Strong prepayments and delayed shipments jointly reduced channel inventory.
• Moutai's Feitian quota utilization progress in the wholesale channelabout 40%This is 8 to 10 percentage points faster than in Q1 2025.
• Wuliangye ordinary distributor channel inventoryabout 1 monthAt the same time, about 40% of prepayments and about 30% of shipments had been completed, with roughly another 10% still to be shipped.
• Spring Festival sell-through growth in Wuliangye's strong regions20% to 30%Chengdu, Sichuan, and other strong regions performed well, while Hunan saw only single-digit growth.
• Wuliangye national Q1 sell-through growthroughly low-single-digit year-on-year growthExperts judge that overall national sell-through could grow from low-single-digit to mid-single-digit levels.
• Nongfu Q1 growthabout 15%Mainly driven by double-digit growth in large-package water, juice, and functional beverages.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that baijiu should not be traded as a simple sector-wide recovery; instead, investors should focus on company differentiation created by channel inventory, price discipline, and direct-sales capabilities. Moutai's stable pricing and i-Moutai ramp-up strengthen its defensive and recovery-leader characteristics; if Wuliangye successfully clears inventory, short-term financial pressure could translate into improved medium-term quality; Luzhou Laojiao and Fen Wine still need further evidence of sell-through and inventory improvement. In beverages, Nongfu's actual contribution from new products to channels and peak-season sales remains the key item to verify.

Risks

• The lingering anti-corruption policy impact continues to weigh on high-end baijiu banquet and corporate demand.
• Channel inventory destocking is slower than expected, keeping wholesale prices and shipment pace under pressure.
• Some liquor companies continue to push inventory to hit short-term sales targets, extending the industry's recovery cycle.
• Feitian Moutai wholesale prices may see temporary fluctuations after shipments resume in April.
• Wuliangye's shipment pause and digestion of historical prepayments may cause short-term financial results to come in below market expectations.
• New beverage products fail to deliver on peak-season retail sell-through and channel coverage.

What to watch

• Whether Feitian Moutai wholesale prices stay near RMB1,500 to RMB1,600 after the April shipment resumption.
• Whether the subsequent ramp-up in i-Moutai continues and how well it offsets the suspension of non-standard SKUs in traditional channels.
• Puwu wholesale prices, channel inventory, and the pace of digesting historical prepayments at Wuliangye.
• End-market sell-through for the nationwide rollout of low-proof Guojiao 1573 at Luzhou Laojiao.
• The Q1 delivery pace at Fen Wine and the achievability of the full-year target of around 5% growth.
• Channel coverage, shelf performance, and repeat purchases for Nongfu's iced tea and electrolyte water during the peak season.
• Whether restaurant closures, transfers, and banquet demand continue to improve.