Ferrari NV (RACE): Bernstein expects Ferrari's pricing and mix to offset lower 3Q26 volumes

Overview

This briefing-call note previews Ferrari's 3Q26 results, due 3 November. Bernstein argues that the temporary volume pressure from model transitions should be more than offset by pricing and mix, supporting revenue and margin growth and underpinning its Outperform rating.

Core views

Ferrari told investors that it remains on track for its year-end plan, despite perceptions that its trading update was uneventful. The company is in a model changeover that began in 4Q25, so it expects 3Q26 volumes to be slightly lower, as they were in 2Q26. New models being phased in include the Amalfi and 849 Testarossa Coupe; deliveries of the 849 Testarossa Spider began in 3Q26, while the 296 Speciale family continues to ramp. At the same time, the 296 GTB/GTS and SF90XX families have reached end of life and the Roma Spider is being phased out. Ferrari also plans the Amalfi Spider, 12Cilindri Manuale and two additional vehicle launches before the end of 2026. Bernstein's central argument is that Ferrari's price and mix can protect earnings through this lower-volume phase. Management described price/mix as positive, supported by gradual F80 deliveries, the balance of model transitions, favorable country mix and personalization progressing in line with expectations. The planned opening of a new paint shop next year is intended to support personalization further. Management reiterated that 2H average selling price should exceed the EUR 468k achieved in 1H26; Bernstein calculates this would imply at least about a 4% contribution from price/mix to year-on-year 2H revenue growth, compared with 9% in 1H26. The report points to 2Q26 as evidence that the model transition need not derail financial performance: shipments fell 3.7% year on year, yet revenue increased 8% and adjusted operating profit rose 10%. Bernstein therefore expects another strong 3Q26, demonstrating Ferrari's pricing and mix capability even as volumes decline. Visible Alpha consensus forecasts broadly flat shipments of 3,407 versus 3,401 in 3Q25, while cars and spare-parts revenue rises 9% to EUR 1.608bn and revenue per shipment rises 9% to EUR 471,887. Total revenue is forecast to increase 9% to EUR 1.919bn, adjusted EBITDA 11% to EUR 745m, and adjusted EBIT 13% to EUR 566m, with adjusted EBITDA and EBIT margins expanding by 0.9 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively. Cost trends are expected to remain consistent with prior communication. SG&A should be higher year on year because of marketing activity, while depreciation and amortization should rise due to previously capitalized R&D. Ferrari clarified that it has not released any Formula 1-related provision because it still expects to finish first; no release is contemplated until that outcome is mathematically impossible. Bernstein maintains Outperform and a USD 460 price target. It values Ferrari by applying a 38x multiple to 12-month blended forward EPS and translating the result using a EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.15. The firm sees Ferrari's capacity to grow faster as increasingly evident after the market's sharp reaction to the lower-than-expected 2030 growth targets at the 9 October 2025 capital-markets day.

Analysis framework

Bernstein combines management's briefing-call comments on model launches, volumes, pricing, mix and costs with historical 2Q26 performance and Visible Alpha consensus estimates for 3Q26. It then supports its target price with a forward earnings multiple translated from euro into US dollars.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  Forward P/E multiple valuation

  Bernstein applies a 38x multiple to 12-month blended forward EPS, then uses a EUR/USD rate of 1.15 to derive its USD 460 target price.

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Volume versus price/mix analysis

  The report separates temporarily lower shipments during model changeovers from the price, product mix and personalization effects expected to drive revenue and margins.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Ferrari NV (RACE)

  Primary covered company; pricing, mix and personalization are expected to offset lower shipment volumes during model changeovers.

  Strengths

  Pricing and mix discipline, gradual F80 deliveries, favorable country mix and personalization support.

  Weaknesses

  Shipments are expected to be slightly lower in 3Q26 during the model transition.

  Comparison

  Bernstein cites Hermès as Ferrari's closest comparator and notes that both have experienced harsh de-ratings.

  Risks

  Brand dilution from aggressive volume growth, weak reception for the Luce BEV, or failure to sustain margins.

• Hermès

  Closest comparator referenced in the discussion of valuation de-rating.

  Weaknesses

  The report notes a similarly harsh de-rating.

  Comparison

  Referenced as Ferrari's closest comparator.

Key data

• 3Q26E shipments3,407Visible Alpha consensus; flat versus 3,401 in 3Q25.
• 3Q26E revenueEUR 1.919bnVisible Alpha consensus; 9% year-on-year growth.
• 3Q26E adjusted EBITDAEUR 745m11% year-on-year growth; 38.8% margin, up 0.9 percentage points.
• 3Q26E adjusted EBITEUR 566m13% year-on-year growth; 29.5% margin, up 1.0 percentage points.
• 1H26 average selling priceEUR 468kManagement expects 2H ASP to be sequentially higher.
• 2H26 price/mix contributionAt least approximately 4%Bernstein's implied contribution to year-on-year revenue growth, versus 9% in 1H26.
• Price targetUSD 460.00Based on 38x 12-month blended forward EPS and EUR/USD of 1.15.

Impact & implications

The report argues that Ferrari's ability to manage price, model mix and personalization can sustain revenue and margin growth despite lower unit volumes during the transition period. This operating resilience is the basis for Bernstein's Outperform rating and USD 460 target price.

Risks

• Aggressive volume expansion could dilute Ferrari's brand exclusivity and impair its ability to sell highly priced vehicles.
• A poor reception for the upcoming Luce battery-electric vehicle could weaken confidence in management and Ferrari's prospects in an electrified market.
• Failure to maintain margins could trigger earnings downgrades and a valuation de-rating.

What to watch

• Ferrari's 3Q26 results on 3 November, particularly whether price and mix offset lower volumes.
• The ramp of F80, 849 Testarossa Spider and 296 Speciale deliveries, alongside ongoing model phase-ins and phase-outs.
• Whether 2H26 average selling price exceeds the EUR 468k reported in 1H26.
• The opening of the new paint shop next year and its contribution to personalization.