Amalfi volume ramp and margin resilience drive Ferrari earnings estimate and target price increases

Overview

The report updates Ferrari's model-level shipment, average selling price, margin and earnings forecasts. Goldman Sachs believes Amalfi's rapid ramp-up in 2H 2026 will make a significant contribution to volume, but its price is below that of the F80, 296VS, 849 Spider and Luce, which are ramping up over the same period, thereby diluting ASP before FX impact. At the same time, a higher share of special-series models, rising personalization rates and a weaker US dollar are expected to offset higher industrial costs and support growth in revenue, margins and EPS.

Core views

First, Amalfi is expected to deliver about 1,900 units in 2H 2026, driving 2H shipments above consensus, but leaving ASP before FX impact broadly flat sequentially. Second, special-series and supercar models remain the main near-term drivers of ASP and margin growth, with special-series models expected to account for 23% of 2H volume. Third, the forecast for initial Luce deliveries in 4Q has been raised from fewer than 100 units to about 300 units, but the view of 800 units per year in 2027 and 2028 is unchanged; Goldman Sachs remains cautious on the degree of its success in China. Fourth, management's guidance upgrade and an order book covered through 2027 enhance earnings visibility, making a 35x target P/E more defensible. Fifth, higher earnings forecasts drive an increase in the 12-month target price, while the Buy rating is maintained.

Analysis framework

The report uses a model-level bottom-up shipment forecast, assessing the delivery cadence of Amalfi, F80, 296VS, 849 Spider and Luce, and maps model mix, personalization, FX and industrial costs to ASP and margins; it then compares Goldman Sachs forecasts with Visible Alpha consensus and derives the 12-month target price by applying a target P/E multiple to blended 2027 and 2028 EPS.

Methodology notes

• Operating forecastModel-level bottom-up forecast

  Estimate deliveries, product mix and average selling price by model

  By forecasting the ramp-up cadence of new models and special-series models one by one, the report aggregates these forecasts into shipment, revenue, ASP, margin and EPS estimates.

• Relative valuationP/E valuation method

  Target P/E multiplied by forward blended EPS

  Goldman Sachs applies a 35x P/E multiple to blended 2027 and 2028 EPS of €11.64 to derive a 12-month target price of €407/$472.

• Expectation gap analysisConsensus comparison

  Comparison of Goldman Sachs forecasts with Visible Alpha consensus

  The report compares quarterly and annual shipment, revenue, margin, EPS and free cash flow forecasts to identify potential upside versus expectations.

• Multi-factor analysisGoldman Sachs Factor Profile (GS Factor Profile)

  Percentile comparison of growth, financial returns, valuation multiples and composite indicators

  This framework standardizes the company's forward-looking growth, financial return and valuation metrics and compares them with the market and industry peers; the composite metric considers high growth, high returns and lower valuation multiples simultaneously.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Ferrari NV (RACE.MI)

  Core research subject listed in Italy

  Strengths

  Strong brand scarcity, order book covered through 2027, special-series and supercar models have higher pricing and margins, personalization rates are rising, and cash conversion capability is strong.

  Weaknesses

  Valuation is significantly above the European luxury goods sector, Amalfi's rapid volume ramp will temporarily dilute ASP, and product innovation requires relatively high capital expenditure.

  Comparison

  About 32x 24-month forward P/E, above about 20x for the European luxury goods sector; Goldman Sachs believes medium-term revenue growth guidance, order visibility and earnings resilience can support a 35x target P/E.

  Risks

  Deterioration in brand and used-car residual values, insufficient acceptance of new energy models, saturation in key markets, higher-than-expected capital expenditure, supply chain or global trade disruptions, weaker F1 performance, adverse FX and a decline in high-net-worth customer wealth.

• Ferrari NV (RACE)

  Same company security traded in the US market

  Strengths

  Shares the same brand, order book, model mix and earnings improvement logic as RACE.MI.

  Weaknesses

  In addition to company fundamentals risk, it may also be affected by US dollar denomination and FX translation.

  Comparison

  Target price of $472 and current price of $406.77, implying about 16.0% upside.

  Risks

  Risks related to company operations, valuation compression, FX volatility and changes in global luxury demand.

Key data

• Amalfi delivery forecast1,900 units in 2H 2026; 2,700 units for full-year 2026The first sales-year forecast is considered conservative, as annual deliveries of its predecessor Roma during its lifecycle are estimated not to have exceeded 2,800 units.
• Total shipments in 2H 20266,900 unitsAbove the actual 6,800 units in 1H 2026 and consensus of 6,700 units.
• ASP before FX impact€454k in 1H 2026; €455k in 2HExpected to be broadly flat sequentially, as Amalfi mix dilution offsets the accretion from higher-priced models.
• Special-series model share in 2H 202623%The higher share is expected to lift personalization rates and support margins.
• Adjusted EBIT margin in 2H 202630.0%A weaker US dollar and product mix improvement are expected to offset higher industrial costs.
• Luce delivery forecastAbout 300 units in 4Q 2026; 800 units per year in 2027 and 2028The 4Q forecast has been raised from fewer than 100 units previously, while the medium-term annual delivery rate remains unchanged.
• Adjusted EPS forecast revisions2026 +2.4%; 2027 +6.9%; 2028 +4.7%Mainly driven by the updated model-level shipment model and management's latest comments.
• 2027 adjusted EPS€11.645.8% above Visible Alpha consensus and also an important component of the blended 2027–2028 EPS used for valuation.
• 2026 adjusted EBIT€2,366 millionRaised 2.1% from the previous forecast and 3.6% above consensus.
• Valuation parameters35x P/E; blended EPS of €11.64Corresponds to a 12-month target price of €407/$472, compared with the previous target price of €381/$442.
• Current price and upside€352.85 implies 15.3%; $406.77 implies 16.0%Prices as of the close on August 10, 2026.
• Relative valuationRACE at about 32x 24-month forward P/E; European luxury goods sector at about 20xThe significant valuation premium is at the center of current investor debate.

Impact & implications

The upward revisions to earnings forecasts and target price reinforce the view of near-term earnings upside for Ferrari. If Amalfi ramps quickly as expected, while special-series models and personalization maintain high shares, volume growth can drive revenue and profit expansion even with ASP broadly flat. The order book covered through 2027 improves earnings visibility and supports the valuation premium versus the European luxury goods sector; however, the current valuation is already high, and subsequent share-price performance will depend more on order execution, product mix improvement and margins meeting expectations.

Risks

• A significant deterioration in automobile residual values, weakening Ferrari's brand equity and order book.
• Market acceptance of hybrid and pure electric models is lower than that of internal combustion engine models, leading to fewer orders.
• Key markets become saturated, limiting the ability to raise prices on future models.
• Capital expenditure required for product innovation is underestimated, pressuring free cash flow.
• Supply chain disruptions or global trade frictions impede deliveries of new models.
• F1 performance is weaker than expected, weighing on sponsorship revenue.
• Adverse FX movements offset improvements in pricing and product mix.
• A significant decline in wealth levels in key markets shrinks the luxury automobile customer base.
• Luce's market buzz and actual demand in China are below media reports.
• A high valuation makes the share price more sensitive to earnings misses or industry valuation derating.

What to watch

• Amalfi's actual ramp-up speed in 2H 2026 and whether it can achieve about 1,900 deliveries.
• Whether total 2H shipments can reach about 6,900 units and exceed consensus.
• Whether the share of special-series models and personalization rates are sufficient to offset Amalfi's dilution of ASP.
• The combined impact of US dollar movements, industrial costs and their effect on the approximately 30.0% adjusted EBIT margin in 2H.
• Whether the allocation of about 300 Luce units in 4Q can be delivered, and the sustainability of an annual delivery rate of 800 units in 2027–2028.
• Media attention, orders and customer acceptance for Luce in the Chinese market.
• Whether management can continue to exceed the 5% medium-term revenue growth target.
• Whether the order book covered through 2027 can be smoothly converted into deliveries and cash flow.
• Whether Ferrari's valuation premium versus the European luxury goods sector can be sustained.