Ferrari's 2Q26 results demonstrated earnings resilience through pricing and product mix, while Bernstein raised its target price to USD 460

Overview

Bernstein published an earnings review of Ferrari NV, with the core conclusion that 2Q26 results themselves demonstrated that the company's earnings power is stronger than market concerns suggest. Although shipments declined due to model transitions, Ferrari still delivered better-than-expected revenue and margins through higher ASP, personalization, a stronger special-model mix, and F80 deliveries, while modestly raising its FY26 absolute-value guidance.

Core views

The report maintains a positive view on Ferrari. Key points include: the order book covers all of 2027, providing extremely high sales visibility; Mainland China exposure is limited; concerns regarding the Luce BEV are gradually being de-risked; high-priced, highly personalized models such as the F80, 296 Speciale, and 12Cilindri Manuale will continue to improve mix; and 2H26 ASP may exceed 1H26 ASP, leaving room for another guidance increase in 3Q26.

Analysis framework

The report uses 2Q26 actual results, Visible Alpha consensus, changes in company FY26 guidance, model delivery timing, regional shipment mix, personalization revenue, and valuation multiples as its main analytical framework. It combines near-term earnings outperformance with the medium-term product cycle and order visibility to assess Ferrari's earnings power and target price.

Methodology notes

• Earnings comparisonActual results versus Visible Alpha consensus

  Assess earnings quality by measuring deviations in revenue, ASP, adjusted EBIT, and margin relative to consensus.

  2Q26 adjusted EBIT margin was 31.2%, above Visible Alpha consensus of 30.6%; revenue per car was €484,000, 7% above consensus.

• Valuation methodsTarget P/E multiple method

  Apply the target P/E multiple to 12-month blended forward EPS to derive the target price.

  Bernstein raised its target P/E multiple from 35x to 38x and derived a USD 460 target price using a EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.15.

• Product mix analysisModel cycle and ASP driver framework

  Assess ASP and margins through the delivery timing and personalization levels of models including the F80, 296 Speciale, 12Cilindri Manuale, and Luce.

  The report believes that high-priced special models and Tailor Made personalization will support continued ASP increases in 2H26 and 2027.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Ferrari NV / RACE.US

  Core covered asset

  Strengths

  Strong brand scarcity, orders covered through the end of 2027, ASP driven by personalization and special models, and better-than-expected 2Q26 margins.

  Weaknesses

  Volumes are declining due to model transitions, while rising D&A and F1-related provision pressure are risks in 2H26.

  Comparison

  The report links Ferrari's valuation framework to top-tier luxury benchmarks such as Hermès, arguing that its long-term order book and pricing power continue to support a premium multiple.

  Risks

  If mix improvement in 2H26 is insufficient, Luce demand disappoints, or high-end consumer spending weakens, the valuation-upgrade thesis may come under pressure.

Key data

• 2Q26 total revenue€1.94bnUp 8.4% year over year, or 10.6% at constant exchange rates, approximately 4% above consensus.
• 2Q26 shipments3,366 unitsDown 3.7% year over year, mainly due to planned model transitions.
• 2Q26 revenue per car€484kUp 12% year over year and 7% above Visible Alpha consensus of €453,000.
• 2Q26 adjusted EBIT€605mAdjusted EBIT margin was 31.2%, above consensus of 30.6%.
• FY26 revenue guidance~€7.60bnPreviously approximately €7.50 billion.
• FY26 adjusted EBIT guidance≥€2.26bnPreviously at least €2.22 billion; adjusted EBIT margin guidance maintained at at least 29.5%.
• FY26 industrial free cash flow guidance≥€1.55bnPreviously at least €1.50 billion.
• Order coveragethrough entire 2027The report states that the order book covers all of 2027.
• Target priceUSD 460.00Previously USD 402.00, based on a 38x target P/E and a EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.15.

Impact & implications

If the report's assessment is correct, Ferrari's investment thesis will shift from simply relying on resilient luxury-car demand toward earnings upgrades driven by a scarce order book, controlled volumes, high personalization, and high-priced special models. 2Q26 demonstrated that the company can increase revenue and margins even when volumes decline, strengthening market confidence that the 2026–2030 plan is conservative and may still be revised upward.

Risks

• Depreciation and amortization will rise in 2H26, mainly as previously capitalized R&D begins to be amortized after new-model deliveries commence.
• Provisions related to the performance of the F1 team may increase.
• Model transitions may continue to weigh on volumes in certain regions, particularly the pace of US deliveries.
• Although Luce BEV is being de-risked, demand for the first electric vehicle and its customer profile still require validation.
• The premium valuation depends on continued ASP growth, order visibility, and margin outperformance; a failure to raise guidance further could affect market confidence.

What to watch

• Whether FY26 guidance is raised again in 3Q26.
• Whether 2H26 ASP exceeds 1H26 ASP and whether personalization revenue continues to outperform expectations.
• Delivery timing for the F80, 296 Speciale, 849 Testarossa, and 12Cilindri Manuale.
• Luce BEV order progress and customer acceptance.
• Changes in shipment mix across the United States, Greater China, and the Middle East.
• The EUR/USD trend and its actual impact on FY26 earnings.