China property market and top 100 developers Report Interpretation

Overview

This China property update assesses July 2026 sales trends among the top 100 developers and conditions in the secondary housing market. UBS finds broad primary-market sales weakening but identifies relative support from premium-project demand, lower secondary listing growth and stronger performance by selected SOE developers.

Core views

Top-100 developers’ contract sales declined 14% year on year in July 2026, a larger fall than the 12% decline in June. Sales also dropped 39% month on month, worse than the average 34% July decline during 2021-25. For the first seven months of 2026, contract sales were down 16% YoY. The July total was RMB196bn, compared with RMB228bn in July 2025 and RMB1,004bn in July 2021, illustrating the sustained contraction in sector-wide activity. UBS notes that gross-floor-area sales declined more sharply than sales value, falling 29% YoY for the top 100 developers. It interprets this gap as evidence of a transaction-mix shift toward prime locations and projects. This is consistent, in UBS’s view, with good sell-through for luxury residential projects in the primary market and its earlier sector-upgrade view that housing demand is supported by industrial profits and a positive wealth effect. The secondary market provided a more constructive counterpoint. As of the week of 26 July, transaction volume in 12 cities was up 8% YoY month to date. Secondary-listing growth in 50 cities slowed to 2.2% YoY as of 29 July, while listings in tier-1 cities fell 11.1% YoY, which UBS views as a positive signal of reduced secondary supply. Offsetting this, tier-1 rental prices declined 3.1% YoY in June, widening from a 2.0% decline in May; Shenzhen was the exception, with rental prices up 0.5% YoY, supported by spillover demand from Hong Kong’s rental market in UBS’s view. SOE developers continued to take market share from private developers. SOE developers’ July contract sales were flat YoY, outperforming the top-100 aggregate decline. Among UBS-covered developers in 7M26, COLI, Jinmao, CR Land and CMSK recorded contract-sales growth of 13%, 8%, 6% and 5% YoY, respectively. Vanke and Longfor underperformed, with sales down 49% and 55% YoY. UBS retains CR Land, COLI and BEKE as its top picks.

Analysis framework

UBS compares monthly and year-to-date contract sales across China’s top 100 developers with prior-year and historical seasonal benchmarks, then contrasts sales-value trends with GFA to assess transaction mix. It supplements primary-market data with secondary transactions, listings and rental-price indicators, and compares SOE and private-developer performance to identify relative winners.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Comparison of contract-sales value and gross-floor-area sales

  UBS uses the larger decline in GFA than in sales value to infer that transactions have shifted toward higher-value projects in prime locations.

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  Price-to-earnings multiples

  UBS states that it values the covered China property developers and managers, including COLI, CR Land, Jinmao, CR Mixc and COPH, using PE multiples.

• Valuation methodsPB valuation

  Price-to-book-value multiples

  UBS also uses P/BV multiples in valuing the covered China property developers and managers.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China Resources Land

  UBS top pick and an SOE developer that outperformed sector sales trends.

  Strengths

  7M26 contract sales rose 6% YoY.

  Comparison

  Outperformed the top-100 developers’ 16% YoY decline in 7M26 sales.

  Risks

  Exposure to China property-policy, financing and residential-demand risks identified by UBS.

• China Overseas Land & Investment

  UBS top pick and an SOE developer that outperformed sector sales trends.

  Strengths

  7M26 contract sales rose 13% YoY.

  Comparison

  Outperformed the top-100 developers’ 16% YoY decline in 7M26 sales.

  Risks

  Exposure to China property-policy, financing and residential-demand risks identified by UBS.

• KE Holdings

  UBS top pick linked to secondary-property market activity.

  Strengths

  Secondary transactions remained strong and listing growth slowed across monitored cities.

  Risks

  Exposure to the broader housing-market risks identified by UBS.

• China Jinmao Holdings

  Covered SOE developer with relative sales outperformance.

  Strengths

  7M26 contract sales rose 8% YoY.

  Comparison

  Outperformed the top-100 developers’ 16% YoY decline in 7M26 sales.

  Risks

  Exposure to China property-policy, financing and residential-demand risks identified by UBS.

• China Merchants Shekou

  Covered SOE developer with relative sales outperformance.

  Strengths

  7M26 contract sales rose 5% YoY.

  Comparison

  Outperformed the top-100 developers’ 16% YoY decline in 7M26 sales.

  Risks

  Exposure to China property-policy, financing and residential-demand risks identified by UBS.

Key data

• Top-100 contract sales, July 2026RMB196bnDown 14% YoY and 39% MoM.
• Top-100 contract sales, 7M26RMB1,691bnDown 16% YoY.
• Top-100 sales GFA-29% YoYUBS sees the larger GFA decline versus sales value as a premium-mix signal.
• Secondary transactions in 12 cities+8% YoY MTDAs of the week of 26 July 2026.
• Secondary listings in 50 cities+2.2% YoYGrowth slowed as of 29 July 2026; tier-1 listings fell 11.1% YoY.
• Tier-1 rental prices-3.1% YoYJune 2026 decline widened from -2.0% in May.

Impact & implications

UBS’s findings indicate that broad developer demand remained weak in July, but premium projects and secondary-market activity showed relative resilience. The report identifies SOE developers as gaining share and highlights CR Land, COLI and BEKE as preferred exposures.

Risks

• Government administrative policies that restrict housing demand and mortgage lending could pressure the China property market.
• Tight financing conditions for China’s developers could worsen sector stress.
• Residential growth in China’s economy could be lower than UBS expects.