Top 100 property developers' June sales YoY at -4%; amid weak stabilization, COLI continues to lead year-to-date

Overview

This report tracks the June contracted sales performance of property developers in Mainland China and Hong Kong. Sales among the top 100 property developers fell 4% YoY, continuing the roughly 4% to 5% declines seen from April to May, indicating that the new home market is in a state of weak stabilization. Although there has been no significant policy support over the past one to two months, sales have not deteriorated further; however, they are still down about 74% versus the 2018 to 2021 average, suggesting industry recovery remains limited.

Core views

The core view is that the new home market has not yet clearly recovered, but the year-over-year decline has stabilized in the low single digits; the low base in the second half should help maintain a similar mild year-over-year decline. The report continues to be selectively positive on leading state-owned developers, especially those focused on tier-1 cities with positive year-to-date sales growth. Top picks include COLI, CR Land, and China Jinmao, with COLI benefiting from 12% sales growth in 1H26, the potential launch of the Shanghai Anlan project, and solid progress toward its full-year target.

Analysis framework

The report is based on CREIS, CRIC, and company data, comparing aggregate sales of the top 100 property developers, the YoY performance of key developers in June and 1H26, the degree of recovery relative to the 2018 to 2021 average, divergence between state-owned and private developers, and the completion rate of annual sales targets for key companies.

Methodology notes

• Industry high-frequency trackingCREIS top 100 property developers contracted sales

  Use monthly contracted sales YoY and MoM changes to judge new home market conditions.

  The report compares June's -4% YoY and +16% MoM with previous months and historical seasonality, concluding that the MoM improvement mainly came from the mid-year sales push rather than a trend recovery.

• Historical benchmark comparisonRelative to the 2018 to 2021 average

  Measure the extent of industry recovery using the discount of current sales relative to the average of a normalized cycle.

  June sales of the top 100 property developers were still about 74% below the 2018 to 2021 average, indicating that even though the YoY decline has narrowed, absolute sales levels remain low.

• Company selectionLeading state-owned developers and tier-1 city exposure

  When the industry is broadly weak, prioritize state-owned developers with positive sales growth, better project exposure, and stronger financing and execution capabilities.

  The report explicitly states that it maintains a selective allocation approach, preferring leading state-owned developers such as COLI, CR Land, and China Jinmao.

• Target completion assessmentFull-year sales target completion rate

  Use the proportion of 1H26 completed sales relative to the full-year target to assess the feasibility of achieving full-year guidance.

  COLI has completed 52% under the assumption of 2% full-year sales growth YoY; China Jinmao has completed 48%, and may still achieve its full-year target even if 2H26 sales decline 8% YoY.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI, 0688.HK)

  Report top pick and year-to-date outperformer

  Strengths

  1H26 sales grew 12% YoY, and June grew 6% YoY; it has become the largest developer by attributable sales; full-year target completion rate is about 52%.

  Weaknesses

  June faced a high base close to Rmb30bn, and the launch of the Shanghai Anlan project has been delayed.

  Comparison

  Clearly outperformed the top 100 property developers' June -4% and the overall June -2% performance of state-owned developers.

  Risks

  If the Shanghai Anlan project is not launched as planned, or if demand in the July-August off-season is weaker than expected, short-term sales growth may come under pressure.

• China Resources Land (1109.HK)

  One of the report's top picks

  Strengths

  1H26 sales grew 6% YoY, and it remains a state-owned developer with positive year-to-date sales growth.

  Weaknesses

  June sales fell 2% YoY, with single-month performance weaker than its first-half trend.

  Comparison

  First-half performance was better than most developers, but June single-month performance lagged COLI and China Jinmao.

  Risks

  If industry off-season sales weaken or policy support remains insufficient, single-month sales volatility may continue to weigh on market expectations.

• China Jinmao (0817.HK)

  One of the report's top picks

  Strengths

  1H26 sales grew 8% YoY, and June grew 1% YoY; full-year target completion rate is 48%, and the report believes it can still achieve its full-year target under the assumption of an 8% YoY decline in 2H26.

  Weaknesses

  Its full-year sales target implies 7% YoY growth, which is relatively aggressive among state-owned developers.

  Comparison

  It is one of the four state-owned developers that still achieved positive growth in 1H26.

  Risks

  If the decline in sales in the second half exceeds the report's assumptions, certainty of achieving the full-year target will decrease.

• Top 100 China property developers

  Industry benchmark

  Strengths

  The June YoY decline remained at -4%, without further deterioration after the first quarter, reflecting weak stabilization.

  Weaknesses

  Sales are still in negative YoY growth and about 74% below the 2018 to 2021 average.

  Comparison

  The second-hand housing market's roughly 5% to 10% year-to-date positive growth is stronger than the new home market.

  Risks

  Lack of substantial policy support, the seasonal off-season in July and August, and widening divergence among developers may limit industry recovery.

Key data

• Top 100 property developers' June sales YoY-4%Similar to -4% in May, continuing a low single-digit decline.
• Top 100 property developers' June sales MoM+16%The report believes this was mainly driven by the seasonal effect of a mid-year push toward sales targets.
• Top 100 property developers' June sales relative to 2018 to 2021 average-74%Absolute sales levels remain significantly below the historical normal range.
• Second-hand housing market year-to-date YoY+5%至+10%The report says the green shoots observed year-to-date have come more from the second-hand housing market.
• COLI 1H26 and June sales growth+12% / +6%1H26 grew 12% YoY, and June grew 6% YoY, still showing strong performance despite a high base.
• CR Land 1H26 and June sales growth+6% / -2%Still listed as one of the top picks, but June single-month YoY performance weakened.
• China Jinmao 1H26 and June sales growth+8% / +1%The report believes that even if 2H26 sales decline 8% YoY, it may still achieve its full-year target.
• COLI full-year target completion rate52%Based on management's 'steady progress' stance and the assumption of 2% full-year sales growth YoY.
• China Jinmao full-year target completion rate48%Its full-year sales target is relatively aggressive among state-owned developers, at about 7% YoY growth.

Impact & implications

At the industry level, stabilization at low sales levels helps ease market concerns about further deterioration, but is still insufficient to prove that the new home market has entered a strong recovery. At the investment level, the report recommends avoiding broad-based allocation to property developers and instead focusing on leading state-owned developers with sales performance better than the industry, higher target completion, and project concentration in higher-tier cities.

Risks

• There has been a lack of significant policy support over the past one to two months, and the foundation for stabilization in new home sales remains fragile.
• July and August are usually the sales off-season, and the report expects MoM sales to decline by more than 10%.
• Sales among the top 100 property developers are still about 74% below the 2018 to 2021 average, indicating limited recovery in the industry's absolute scale.
• Performance within state-owned developers is diverging, with companies such as Greentown and C&D seeing notable sales declines in June.
• If the launch pace of key projects is delayed, it may affect the short-term sales performance of leading companies such as COLI.

What to watch

• Whether top 100 property developers' sales YoY in July and August can continue to maintain a mild decline of less than 5%.
• Whether COLI's Shanghai Anlan project is launched as planned and its boosting effect on July sales.
• Whether the second-hand housing market's 5% to 10% year-to-date growth can be transmitted to the new home market.
• Whether sales divergence among state-owned developers widens further, especially the monthly performance of COLI, CR Land, China Jinmao, Greentown, and C&D.
• Whether clearer property policy support emerges, and the marginal impact of such policy on sales in tier-1 cities.