Top-100 developers' July sales decline widened, while SOE leaders still delivered alpha

Overview

This report tracks the July 2026 contracted sales performance of Chinese property developers. CREIS data show that the YoY decline in sales of top-100 developers widened from 4% in June to 9% in July, while sales declined 44% MoM, mainly due to seasonality. Although primary home sales across the sector remained weak, the report highlights significant alpha among leading SOE developers, particularly COLI, CR Land, and Jinmao.

Core views

The core view is that aggregate sector volume remains under pressure, but structural divergence is significant. J.P. Morgan expects the YoY sales decline of top-100 developers in 2H26 to remain broadly below 10%; meanwhile, developers with SOE backgrounds, first-tier city resources, and positive sales growth are more likely to receive a valuation premium from the market. COLI, CR Land, and Jinmao are listed as the top three picks because their July or year-to-date sales growth was positive and their share prices significantly outperformed the Hang Seng Index.

Analysis framework

The report primarily analyzes CREIS contracted-sales data for top-100 developers, sales growth by developer type for key developers, comparisons with 2018-2021 averages, monthly sales seasonality, and valuation summaries, combining sales momentum with share-price performance to assess developer alpha.

Methodology notes

• Sector trackingMonitoring YoY and MoM contracted sales

  Measure primary-market housing momentum using monthly YoY and MoM changes in contracted sales of top-100 and key developers.

  Top-100 developers' sales declined 9% YoY and 44% MoM in July; the report compares these figures with the declines in June and 2Q to assess marginal changes in sector conditions.

• Relative performance analysisComparison with the 2018-2021 average

  Compare current sales volumes with the multi-year average during the pre-pandemic and high point of the sector.

  The report notes that the gap between July sales and the 2018-2021 average widened from -74% to -80%, indicating that absolute sector sales remain at a low level.

• Stock-selection frameworkIdentifying SOE alpha

  Against a backdrop of weak aggregate volume, screen for SOE developers with positive sales growth, resources focused on high-tier cities, and strong share-price performance.

  COLI, CR Land, and Jinmao are highlighted as preferred names because of their sales growth and share-price outperformance.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China Overseas Land & Investment (0688.HK)

  Preferred SOE developer, referred to as COLI in the report

  Strengths

  July sales grew 27% YoY and 7M26 sales grew 13% YoY; strong sell-through of first-tier city projects, with the first batch at the Shanghai Anlan project achieving 100% sell-through; progress toward the full-year sales growth target is on track.

  Weaknesses

  The company remains in an environment of generally weak primary-market housing sales, and part of its sales growth is attributable to a low base.

  Comparison

  The share price rose 13% year to date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by approximately 1%; sales momentum leads among key SOE developers.

  Risks

  If primary-market housing demand is weaker than expected in 2H26 or sell-through declines for subsequent projects, expectations for positive growth may come under pressure.

• China Resources Land (1109.HK)

  Preferred SOE developer

  Strengths

  Both July and year-to-date sales grew 6% YoY, while the share price rose 26% year to date, indicating market recognition of its alpha.

  Weaknesses

  Sales growth is lower than COLI's and remains affected by weak overall sector demand.

  Comparison

  Share-price performance was better than that of COLI and Jinmao and significantly outperformed the Hang Seng Index.

  Risks

  Valuation already reflects part of its relative advantages; weaker-than-expected sales sustainability could affect excess returns.

• China Jinmao (0817.HK)

  Preferred SOE developer

  Strengths

  July sales grew 9% YoY and 7M26 sales grew 8% YoY, maintaining positive growth.

  Weaknesses

  The valuation table shows one-year share-price performance still at -2%, with a relatively large decline from its long-term high.

  Comparison

  The share price rose 14% year to date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index and, together with the other preferred SOEs, demonstrating alpha.

  Risks

  If weak sector demand persists or financing conditions deteriorate, sales and valuation recovery may be constrained.

• China's top-100 developers

  Sector sales sample

  Strengths

  Against a low base, the YoY decline in 2H26 is expected to remain below 10%, and some SOEs have returned to positive growth.

  Weaknesses

  July sales declined 9% YoY and 44% MoM, remaining 80% below the 2018-2021 average; the sector remains generally weak.

  Comparison

  Second-hand home sales are expected to continue growing YoY and outperform primary-market home sales.

  Risks

  A prolonged traditional low season, insufficient household confidence in home purchases, and sector balance-sheet pressure could weigh on the sales recovery.

Key data

• Top-100 developers' July contracted sales YoY-9%June was -4%; the YoY decline in 2Q was approximately 4%-5%.
• Top-100 developers' July contracted sales MoM-44%The report attributes this mainly to seasonality: June is typically a peak sales month, while July is a low season.
• Top-100 developers' sales relative to the 2018-2021 average-80%The gap widened further from the previous -74%.
• SOE developers' July sales YoY+3%June was -1%, turning to positive growth.
• COLI July sales YoY+27%Growth was 13% year to date; the report expects FY26 sales growth to remain positive YoY.
• CR Land July and year-to-date sales YoY+6%Also one of the report's top three picks.
• Jinmao July sales YoY / year-to-date YoY+9% / +8%Also one of the report's top three picks.
• Sell-through rate of the first batch at the Shanghai Anlan project100%100 units were launched on July 31, with total contracted sales of Rmb3.4bn.
• Year-to-date share-price performance of the three top picksCOLI +13%；CR Land +26%；Jinmao +14%The Hang Seng Index was approximately +1% over the same period.

Impact & implications

For investors, the report suggests that property stocks should not be broadly avoided simply because aggregate sector sales remain weak; instead, investors should focus on SOE leaders that can demonstrate sales resilience and resource advantages. Companies with positive sales growth and strong project sell-through may continue to receive valuation and share-price premiums, while weaker private developers and distressed developers remain under pressure from sales, financing, and balance-sheet conditions.

Risks

• Primary-market housing sales could decline more than expected in the report, putting developers' cash collections and earnings expectations under pressure.
• Improvement in July sales at individual companies may have been driven by a low base or the launch of a single project, creating uncertainty regarding sustainability.
• Sector sales remain significantly below the 2018-2021 average, indicating a weak foundation for demand recovery.
• Weaker private developers and distressed developers may continue to face refinancing, debt restructuring, and project delivery risks.
• If policy support, home-price expectations, or household confidence in home purchases are weaker than expected, valuation recovery in the sector could be undermined.

What to watch

• Whether the YoY decline in contracted sales of top-100 developers remains below 10% in August and 2H26.
• Subsequent-batch sales at COLI's Shanghai Anlan project and delivery of the full-year "steady improvement" target.
• Whether positive sales growth at SOE developers such as CR Land and Jinmao can continue.
• Whether second-hand home sales continue to grow YoY and outperform the primary market.
• Whether key developers' excess returns relative to the Hang Seng Index continue.