Top 100 developers' sales fell 12% YoY in June, but tier-1 secondary housing and land markets remained resilient
AI summary card
Top 100 developers' sales fell 12% YoY in June, but tier-1 secondary housing and land markets remained resilient
UBS believes that China's real estate sales momentum weakened in June 2026, with top 100 developers' contracted sales down 12% year-on-year and up only 5% month-on-month, but strong secondary home transactions, slower listing growth, and high-premium land acquisitions in tier-1 cities indicate improving sentiment in core cities.
- In June 2026, top 100 developers' contracted sales were Rmb324bn, down 12% year-on-year, further weakening from the 2% year-on-year decline in May; month-on-month growth was only 5%, well below the 2021-2025 average of 26% for the same period.
- In 1H26, top 100 developers' contracted sales declined 16% year-on-year, a slight improvement from the cumulative 17% decline over the first five months, but overall sales remained in contraction territory.
- As of June 28, secondary home transaction volume in 12 cities rose 11% year-on-year during the month; as of June 24, year-on-year growth in secondary home listings in 50 cities slowed to 2.3%, while listings in tier-1 cities fell 9.7% year-on-year.
- SOE developers continued to gain market share from private developers. In 1H26, sales at COLI, CMSK, Jinmao, and CRL rose 12%, 8%, 8%, and 6% year-on-year, respectively, while Vanke and Longfor fell 49% and 53%, respectively.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report focuses on Chinese real estate developers' sales, secondary home transactions, listings, rents, and the land market in June 2026. UBS notes that the year-on-year decline in new home contracted sales among the top 100 developers widened, and month-on-month improvement was weaker than historical seasonality, but secondary home transactions remained strong, listings in tier-1 cities declined, and core land parcels were sold at high premiums, indicating relatively stronger sentiment for high-end housing and core locations in tier-1 cities.
Core views
The core view is that overall industry sales remain weak, but structural divergence is clear: SOE developers are outperforming private developers in sales, and sell-through and land competition for core assets in tier-1 cities are stronger. UBS continues to prefer developers with better sales quality, financing capabilities, and project reserves in tier-1 cities, with COLI as its top pick, while maintaining Buy ratings on CMSK, Jinmao, and CRL.
Analysis framework
The report combines CRIC top 100 developers' contracted sales data, high-frequency secondary home transactions in 12 cities, secondary home listings in 50 cities, housing price and rent indices in tier-1 cities, and land transaction cases in Shenzhen and Shanghai to cross-validate new home sales momentum, secondary housing supply and demand, market share shifts between SOE and private developers, and sentiment in tier-1 cities.
Methodology notes
Use monthly contracted sales amount, year-on-year, month-on-month, and first-half cumulative growth to measure new home market momentum.
The report compares top 100 developers' sales in June 2026 with the average month-on-month performance for the same period in 2021-2025, noting that the 5% month-on-month increase in June was well below the historical average of 26%, indicating insufficient seasonal improvement.
Use secondary home transaction volume, listing growth, and listing changes in tier-1 cities to observe real demand and supply pressure.
Year-on-year growth in secondary home transactions across 12 cities was maintained, while listing growth in 50 cities slowed and listings in tier-1 cities declined, which are seen as positive signals of reduced secondary housing supply and improving homebuyer sentiment.
Use PE or P/BV multiples to value Chinese real estate developers.
The report states that UBS mainly values Chinese real estate developers based on PE or P/BV multiples, with the appropriate method chosen for each company according to its business and asset characteristics.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- COLI / China Overseas Land & Investment (0688.HK)UBS's top pick, rated Buy.
- Strengths
- June 2026 contracted sales were Rmb31.4bn, YoY +5%, ranking first in monthly sales; 1H26 sales were up 12% YoY, significantly better than the top 100 overall at -16%. Shenzhen Antiyayuan achieved a 100% sell-through rate, and Yunsongjiuzhang achieved 83%.
- Weaknesses
- It is still affected by slower overall industry sales, policy changes, and the financing environment.
- Comparison
- It is outperforming the top 100 developers and most private developers, and is leading sales growth among covered developers.
- Risks
- Demand-restricting policies, tighter mortgage policies, tighter developer financing, and weaker-than-expected economic growth in China.
- CMSK / China Merchants Shekou (001979.SZ)UBS rates it Buy.
- Strengths
- 1H26 contracted sales were up 8% year-on-year, better than the overall performance of the top 100.
- Weaknesses
- June sales were down 7% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month, with short-term momentum weaker than some peers.
- Comparison
- Its first-half growth outperformed the top 100 overall, but monthly performance was weaker than COLI.
- Risks
- Sales of Qianhai projects coming in below expectations, and weaker-than-expected real estate sales in tier-1 and tier-2 cities.
- Jinmao / China Jinmao Holdings (0817.HK)UBS rates it Buy.
- Strengths
- June 2026 contracted sales were Rmb15.8bn, YoY +1%, MoM +50%; 1H26 sales were up 8% YoY.
- Weaknesses
- The company still faces tighter policy, presale restrictions, and margin pressure.
- Comparison
- Its first-half sales growth was better than the top 100 overall and better than developers such as Vanke and Longfor, whose sales declined significantly.
- Risks
- Tighter real estate policies, slower-than-expected progress in city operations business, and weaker-than-expected economic growth in China.
- CRL / China Resources Land (1109.HK)UBS rates it Buy.
- Strengths
- 1H26 contracted sales were up 6% year-on-year, better than the top 100 overall; the company has the attributes of an SOE developer and strong city resources.
- Weaknesses
- June contracted sales were down 2% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month, so short-term sales remain volatile.
- Comparison
- Its first-half performance was better than the industry overall, but weaker than COLI's +12%.
- Risks
- A slowdown in China's real estate market, intensified land market competition leading to higher land prices and lower margins, and weaker-than-expected retail sales growth.
- SOE Developer SectorThe report believes SOE developers continue to gain market share from private developers.
- Strengths
- In June 2026, SOE developers' contracted sales were down 8% year-on-year, better than the top 100 overall at -12%, and better than private developers.
- Weaknesses
- The sector as a whole remains in year-on-year decline, and industry demand has not yet fully recovered.
- Comparison
- Compared with POE developers, SOE developers show stronger sales resilience.
- Risks
- If policy easing proves insufficient or homebuyer confidence weakens again, SOE developers will also find it difficult to fully escape industry downward pressure.
Key data
- Top 100 Developers' June Contracted SalesRmb324bn, YoY -12%, MoM +5%The year-on-year decline widened from -2% in May, and the month-on-month improvement was below the 2021-2025 average of +26%.
- Top 100 Developers' 1H26 Contracted SalesRmb1,495bn, YoY -16%A slight improvement from the cumulative YoY decline of -17% over the first five months.
- Secondary Home Transactions in 12 CitiesAs of 2026-06-28, month-to-date YoY +11%The report believes secondary home transactions remained strong in June.
- Secondary Home Listings in 50 CitiesAs of 2026-06-24, YoY +2.3%Listing growth slowed; secondary home listings in tier-1 cities were -9.7% YoY.
- Tier-1 City RentsYoY -2.0% in May 2026The decline narrowed from -2.7% in April.
- Shenzhen Land TransactionsThree land parcels totaling Rmb20bn, premium rate 99%-151%This shows developers still have strong confidence in core locations in tier-1 cities.
- COLI June Contracted SalesRmb31.4bn, YoY +5%Monthly contracted sales rose to first place, driven by high sell-through rates at two new Shenzhen projects.
Impact & implications
The investment implication is that the overall recovery in the real estate sector remains uneven, and top 100 sales alone still look weak; however, secondary home transactions, declining listings, and high-premium land transactions suggest that core assets in tier-1 cities may recover ahead of overall industry volumes. In portfolio allocation, the report favors SOE developers and developers with stronger tier-1 city resources, especially COLI, CMSK, Jinmao, and CRL.
Risks
- Government administrative policies again restrict homebuying demand and mortgage lending.
- China developers' financing environment remains tight.
- China's economic and housing demand growth comes in below expectations.
- Real estate sales in tier-1 and tier-2 cities are weaker than expected.
- Intensified land competition raises land acquisition costs and compresses margins.
- Policy easing is insufficient to restore positive year-on-year growth in sales, investment, and prices.
What to watch
- Whether the year-on-year decline in subsequent monthly sales of the top 100 developers continues to widen or narrows.
- Whether secondary home transactions in tier-1 cities can maintain year-on-year growth.
- Whether secondary home listings in 50 cities and tier-1 cities continue to decline or slow further.
- Whether land premium rates in core cities such as Shenzhen and Shanghai remain elevated.
- Whether policy easing can drive new home sales, investment, and housing prices back to positive year-on-year growth.
- Whether project sell-through rates and strong first-half sales at COLI, CMSK, Jinmao, and CRL can be sustained.