China biosimilar centralized procurement: Deutsche Bank expects China’s biosimilar procurement tender to avoid extreme price cuts

Overview

Deutsche Bank reviews circulated draft rules for an Anhui-led inter-provincial biosimilar procurement round in China. It argues that tender design and policy priorities should limit price cuts, with implementation expected to begin in 2027.

Core views

Chinese media reported on 21 September that draft rules for an Anhui-led inter-provincial biosimilar centralized-procurement program had circulated within the industry. The round was initially proposed in 2025 but had been dormant until 2026. It covers adalimumab, bevacizumab, denosumab, rituximab, trastuzumab, tocilizumab and infliximab; pertuzumab has been removed. Eligibility is intended to exclude novel drugs: the reference drug and biosimilars must have at least five manufacturers in aggregate, at least three years must have elapsed since the first biosimilar approval, annual procurement value must exceed RMB300 million, and the drug cannot be in an NRDL negotiation-agreement period. The report identifies bevacizumab as the most consequential product in the prospective tender because it recorded more than RMB14 billion of hospital sales in 2025 and has 14 competing manufacturers, including the originator. It reviews market sales, participant counts and market shares across the seven products to frame where competition and procurement effects may be concentrated. Deutsche Bank does not expect extreme price reductions. It argues that a unified anchor price constrains unusually wide bid dispersion, confidential winning-bid registries reduce the incentive for nationwide price-cutting wars, and multiple rebidding routes help companies preserve hospital access. The report also sees a policy shift away from simply compressing medicine margins toward supporting high-quality biologics development and supply-chain security. In its view, this approach responds to earlier chemical-drug procurement episodes in which very low bids contributed to supply disruptions and quality deterioration. Accordingly, the institution expects reductions broadly in line with historical centralized-procurement averages rather than at rock-bottom levels. It expects an official policy document in October or November 2026, tender completion in the fourth quarter of 2026, and full implementation from 2027. Within its coverage universe, four Sino Biopharm products and three Innovent products are included: their affected products generated RMB1,537 million and RMB2,327 million of 1H26 sales, respectively, equal to 8% of Sino Biopharm’s and 28% of Innovent’s total product sales.

Analysis framework

The report starts with the circulated eligibility and product rules, identifies the largest and most competitive products, then assesses bidding mechanics and policy objectives against past centralized-procurement outcomes. It uses product sales, numbers of competing manufacturers, market-share data and affected-company sales exposure to assess likely implications.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Sino Biopharm

  Four products are included in the prospective procurement list.

  Weaknesses

  Affected products generated RMB1,537 million in 1H26, representing 8% of total product sales.

  Comparison

  Its affected-sales exposure is lower than Innovent’s 28%.

  Risks

  Centralized procurement could affect pricing and sales for included products.

• Innovent

  Three products are included in the prospective procurement list.

  Weaknesses

  Affected products generated RMB2,327 million in 1H26, representing 28% of total product sales.

  Comparison

  Its affected-sales exposure is higher than Sino Biopharm’s 8%.

  Risks

  Centralized procurement could affect pricing and sales for included products.

Key data

• Biosimilars in proposed procurement scope7Adalimumab, bevacizumab, denosumab, rituximab, trastuzumab, tocilizumab and infliximab; pertuzumab was removed.
• Bevacizumab hospital salesOver RMB14 billion2025 sales; the report identifies it as the tender’s likely primary focus.
• Bevacizumab competing manufacturers14Includes the originator.
• Sino Biopharm affected-product salesRMB1,537 million1H26; equal to 8% of total product sales.
• Innovent affected-product salesRMB2,327 million1H26; equal to 28% of total product sales.

Impact & implications

The report expects the tender framework to moderate pricing pressure relative to an extreme-cut scenario. It highlights comparatively greater affected-sales exposure at Innovent than at Sino Biopharm, while the final impact depends on the tender’s eventual rules and outcomes.

What to watch

• Release of the official policy document, expected in October or November 2026.
• Tender completion expected in the fourth quarter of 2026 and full implementation expected from 2027.