The 2026 National Essential Medicines List has been released, and the inclusion of innovative drugs is expected to drive volume expansion
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The 2026 National Essential Medicines List has been released, and the inclusion of innovative drugs is expected to drive volume expansion
Nomura notes that the first update in eight years added 109 medicines in the 2026 National Essential Medicines List, including GLP-1 RAs, oncology and autoimmune monoclonal antibodies, and targeted drugs, which is expected to improve access and usage of relevant medicines in lower-tier and primary healthcare institutions.
- The 2026 National Essential Medicines List was issued on 2026-07-09 by the National Health Commission, the National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine, and the National Health and Family Planning Commission, and will take effect from 2026-09-01.
- The total number of medicines in the list increased by 109 to 794, with 476 chemical and biological products (an increase of 68), and 318 traditional Chinese medicines (an increase of 48).
- Therapeutic areas such as diabetes, hypertension, COPD, and pediatric diseases received priority focus, with multiple innovative medicines and key therapeutic drugs included.
- The report believes that utilization of relevant listed medicines is expected to rise after inclusion in the list, with beneficiaries including CSPC, Hengrui, Innovent, Remegen, Novo Nordisk, AstraZeneca, and Keymed.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report reviews the release of China’s National Essential Medicines List (2026 Edition). The list was last updated in 2018 and this 2026 version is scheduled to take effect on 2026-09-01. Nomura believes that the expanded list, which includes more innovative medicines, will improve coverage of usage of related drugs in lower-tier cities and primary healthcare institutions, thereby supporting volume growth for related products.
Core views
The core view is that the 2026 National Essential Medicines List added over 100 medicines, with the total reaching 794, showing policy support for key therapeutic areas including chronic diseases, pediatrics, oncology, and autoimmune diseases. The report particularly emphasizes that innovative drugs such as GLP-1 RAs, monoclonal antibodies for oncology and autoimmune diseases, and targeted therapies were included, which will provide more treatment options in primary healthcare institutions and may increase usage of included medicines.
Analysis framework
The report uses policy-event interpretation and beneficiary-medicine mapping: it first reviews the update timing, implementation date, and number of newly added medicines, then identifies priority therapeutic areas and representative innovative medicines included in the list, and finally maps included medicines to corresponding listed companies and their ratings.
Methodology notes
Inclusion in the list typically improves access and prescribing priority of medicines in primary healthcare institutions.
Nomura views entry into the National Essential Medicines List as a potential volume-expansion catalyst, focusing on newly added varieties, priority treatment areas, and corresponding listed companies.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- CSPC (1093 HK)NBP (butylphthalide) is a potential volume-expansion beneficiary after listing inclusion, with a Buy rating.
- Strengths
- Inclusion in the list helps expand usage scenarios and coverage at the primary-care level.
- Weaknesses
- The report does not provide specific incremental sales, pricing, or profit leverage estimates.
- Comparison
- Like other included medicines, the main benefit logic comes from the expansion of coverage under the essential medicines list.
- Risks
- Volume ramp-up may be slower than expected, price pressure, and slower execution in primary institutions.
- Hengrui (600076 CH / 1276 HK)loversol is listed as a potential beneficiary; rating is Buy.
- Strengths
- Inclusion in the list may increase usage and endpoint coverage.
- Weaknesses
- The report does not disclose the quantified contribution of this product to company revenue or profit.
- Comparison
- Along with CSPC and Innovent, it is a beneficiary of policy effects from list inclusion.
- Risks
- Market competition, procurement and pricing policy changes, and uneven list implementation.
- Innovent (1801 HK)Biosimilars of bevacizumab and adalimumab are listed as potential beneficiaries; rating is Buy.
- Strengths
- Biosimilars entering the National Essential Medicines List may improve accessibility in primary and lower-tier markets.
- Weaknesses
- Competition among biosimilars is strong, and price and share shifts may affect profit leverage.
- Comparison
- Compared with single-product beneficiaries, Innovent involves multiple biosimilar categories.
- Risks
- Intensified competition, price declines, and slower hospital access and prescription conversion than expected.
- Remegen (688331 CH / 9995 HK)Tai'ai (telitacicept) is listed as a potential beneficiary; rating is Neutral.
- Strengths
- Inclusion of an autoimmune innovative drug in the list helps improve patient accessibility.
- Weaknesses
- A Neutral rating indicates Nomura has not given a positive stock performance view.
- Comparison
- Compared with Buy-rated names, the benefit logic exists but the investment rating is more cautious.
- Risks
- Uncertainty around commercialization ramp-up, penetration speed by indication, reimbursement and pricing pressure.
- Novo Nordisk (NOVO DK)Semaglutide is listed as a potential beneficiary; not rated.
- Strengths
- GLP-1 RA-related drugs are included in the list, consistent with priority areas for managing chronic diseases such as diabetes.
- Weaknesses
- The report does not provide an official coverage rating or target price for this company.
- Comparison
- Compared with domestic Chinese peers, the benefit is more at the product-level list inclusion impact.
- Risks
- Pricing, supply, reimbursement constraints, and domestic competition.
- AstraZeneca (AZN LN)Osimertinib, olaparib, and roxadustat are listed as potential beneficiaries; not rated.
- Strengths
- Multiple oncology and related therapeutic medicines were included, potentially expanding access at the primary-care level.
- Weaknesses
- The report does not provide company-level investment ratings, target price, or financial leverage estimates.
- Comparison
- Although product coverage is broader, the report mentions the company mainly in the context of list-benefit mapping.
- Risks
- Price negotiations, substitute competition, indication and channel restrictions.
- Keymed (2162 HK)stapokibart is listed as a potential beneficiary; not rated.
- Strengths
- Inclusion of innovative drugs in the list may improve prescription opportunities and market education.
- Weaknesses
- Not rated and lacks quantified impact on financial performance.
- Comparison
- Like Remegen, Keymed benefits from autoimmune or related innovative therapies entering the list.
- Risks
- Uncertainty around commercialization execution, competitive landscape, and pricing and reimbursement policies.
Key data
- Effective date of 2026 list2026-09-01The report states that the 2026 National Essential Medicines List will take effect from 2026-09-01.
- Total number of medicines in the list794An increase of 109 versus the previous version.
- Chemical and biological products476An increase of 68 versus the previous version.
- Traditional Chinese medicines318An increase of 48 versus the previous version.
- Priority therapeutic areasDiabetes, hypertension, COPD, pediatric diseasesThe report notes that these therapeutic areas received priority focus.
Impact & implications
This list update is generally positive for the Chinese pharmaceutical industry, especially for innovative drugs and key therapeutic medicines included in the list. For investors, list inclusion may improve coverage and prescription accessibility in primary healthcare institutions, thereby supporting sales growth; however, the ultimate financial impact still depends on implementation pace, pricing policies, medical insurance reimbursement, channel penetration, and each company’s commercialization capability.
Risks
- Actual volume expansion after list inclusion may be slower than expected.
- Changes in drug pricing, medical insurance reimbursement, or procurement policies may offset gains from higher sales volume.
- Execution pace in primary healthcare institutions and prescription conversion remain uncertain.
- Increased competition among related medicines may affect market share and margin.
- The report does not provide quantified estimates of sales uplift or profit elasticity for each medicine.
What to watch
- Execution pace of hospitals and primary healthcare institutions after the list officially takes effect on 2026-09-01.
- Procurement, access, and prescription rollout of newly added medicines across provinces and cities.
- Changes in usage volumes of GLP-1 RAs, oncology monoclonal antibodies, autoimmune drugs, and targeted therapies.
- Subsequent company guidance, sales data, and disclosures by management on the impact of list inclusion.
- Changes in pricing policies, medical insurance reimbursement rules, and competition from peer products.