The 2026 edition of the National Essential Medicines List was released, and inclusion of innovative drugs is expected to drive volume growth

Overview

This report focuses on the 2026 edition of the National Essential Medicines List jointly released by China’s National Health Commission, National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine, and National Health Commission on July 9, 2026. The revised list will take effect from September 1, 2026 and is the first update since 2018. The report’s core view is that expanding the list and adding more innovative drugs will increase accessibility and utilization of listed medicines, particularly by widening treatment options in primary healthcare institutions.

Core views

The new essential medicines list increased the total number of medicines by 109 to 794 from the prior list, with 68 new chemical medicines and biologics to 476, and 48 new traditional Chinese patent medicines to 318. The report believes treatment areas such as diabetes, hypertension, COPD, and pediatric diseases received priority consideration, while innovative drugs including GLP-1RAs, oncology and autoimmune monoclonal antibodies, and targeted therapies were included, which it views as a constructive signal. Inclusion in the list is expected to raise usage of related medicines in lower-tier healthcare institutions and primary-care settings.

Analysis framework

The report uses a policy catalog-change interpretation and beneficiary-product-mapping approach: it first compares the medicine count changes in the 2026 essential medicines list versus the 2018 edition, then identifies prioritized therapeutic areas and categories of innovative drugs in newly listed medicines, and finally maps them to listed companies and specific products to judge potential volume upside.

Methodology notes

• Policy catalyst analysisImpact analysis of inclusion in the National Essential Medicines List

  List inclusion and volume growth

  Inclusion in the National Essential Medicines List usually improves accessibility and prescribing convenience at primary healthcare institutions. The report therefore concludes that key medicines included may benefit from broader clinical use and volume expansion.

• Company product mappingMapping benefiting products to listed companies

  Policy change to asset mapping

  The report maps newly listed medicines to company drug pipelines or already marketed molecules to identify potential beneficiaries, but does not provide target price adjustments or earnings estimate revisions in the main text.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• CSPC (1093 HK) - NBP (butylphthalide)

  Beneficiary product included in the list; the report assigns a Buy rating.

  Strengths

  The report lists NBP as one of the medicines expected to see higher utilization after being included in the new essential medicines list.

  Weaknesses

  The main text does not disclose this product’s sales base, pricing changes, or earnings-contribution estimates.

  Comparison

  Compared with medicines not in the list, inclusion in the essential medicines list may strengthen primary-care use scenarios.

  Risks

  Actual volume expansion depends on terminal access, physician prescribing habits, reimbursement policy, and competitive dynamics.

• Hengrui (600076 CH / 1276 HK) - loversol

  Beneficiary product included in the list; the report assigns a Buy rating.

  Strengths

  The report identifies loversol as a medicine whose volume may rise after inclusion in the list.

  Weaknesses

  No target price, earnings forecast, or single-product scale estimate is provided.

  Comparison

  List inclusion provides policy-driven accessibility support, but commercial leverage must be assessed with current penetration rates.

  Risks

  Price pressure, in-category competition, and hospital procurement pacing could affect actual benefits.

• Innovent (1801 HK) - bevacizumab and adalimumab biosimilars

  Beneficiary products included in the list; the report assigns a Buy rating.

  Strengths

  Biosimilars entering the list are expected to improve accessibility in primary and broader healthcare institutions.

  Weaknesses

  Biosimilars generally face price competition and product commoditization.

  Comparison

  Compared with original innovative originator drugs, biosimilars may be more driven by reimbursement and affordability considerations.

  Risks

  Centralized procurement, price declines, competitor expansion, and channel execution may weaken the revenue leverage from volume expansion.

• Remegen (688331 CH / 9995 HK) - Tai'ai (telitacicept)

  Beneficiary product included in the list; the report assigns a Neutral rating.

  Strengths

  Tai'ai is identified as a beneficiary target as an autoimmune-related innovative drug included in the list.

  Weaknesses

  The company is rated Neutral, and the report does not show an upgraded rating due to list inclusion.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional treatment medicines, entry of an innovative mechanism drug into the essential medicines list signals higher policy recognition.

  Risks

  Indication expansion, physician education, reimbursement constraints, and commercialization execution carry uncertainty.

• Novo Nordisk - semaglutide

  Beneficiary product included in the list; the report assigns Not rated.

  Strengths

  Semaglutide, as a representative GLP-1RA, aligns with the prioritized chronic-care areas mentioned in the report, such as diabetes.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide a formal coverage rating for Novo Nordisk.

  Comparison

  Inclusion of GLP-1RAs in the list reflects increasing importance of chronic-disease innovation within the essential medicines system.

  Risks

  Reimbursement scope for indications, supply capability, pricing, and domestic substitutes may affect volume expansion in the China market.

• AstraZeneca - osimertinib, Olaparib, roxadustat

  Beneficiary products included in the list; the report assigns Not rated.

  Strengths

  The medicines cover oncology targeted therapies and other key treatment areas, and list inclusion is expected to broaden accessibility.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide a formal rating or financial impact estimate for AstraZeneca.

  Comparison

  Innovative drugs from multinational firms entering the essential medicines list indicate broader penetration of innovation drugs across care levels.

  Risks

  Reimbursement policy, price negotiations, indication restrictions, and domestic substitute competition may affect incremental gains.

• Keymed (2162 HK) - stapokibart

  Beneficiary product included in the list; the report assigns Not rated.

  Strengths

  The report lists stapokibart as a medicine whose utilization could increase after inclusion in the new list.

  Weaknesses

  No formal rating or quantified earnings contribution is provided.

  Comparison

  As an innovative product, list inclusion may improve reach into lower-tier healthcare institutions.

  Risks

  Commercialization pace, indication coverage, pricing, and competitive dynamics may affect actual volume expansion.

Key data

• New list effective date2026-09-01The 2026 National Essential Medicines List will be implemented starting September 1, 2026.
• Catalogue update interval8 yearsThe previous edition was updated in 2018.
• Total number of medicines in 2026 edition794An increase of 109 from the previous edition.
• Number of chemical medicines and biologics476An increase of 68 from the previous edition.
• Number of traditional Chinese patent medicines318An increase of 48 from the previous edition.
• Priority therapeutic areasDiabetes, hypertension, COPD, pediatric diseasesThe report states these treatment areas received priority consideration and led to several newly added medicines.
• Nomura Group global equity research rating distributionBuy 58%, Neutral 39%, Reduce 3%Disclosure of the Nomura Group global equity research rating distribution as presented.

Impact & implications

For the pharmaceutical industry, the expansion of the new essential medicines list and inclusion of innovative drugs can improve accessibility of relevant medicines in primary healthcare institutions and may support growth in prescriptions and utilization. The main benefit channels are innovative medicines explicitly included, chronic disease medications, oncology and autoimmune therapies, and related biosimilars. From an investment perspective, list inclusion is a positive catalyst on the volume side, but actual contribution to earnings still needs to be assessed alongside price, medical reimbursement, distribution coverage, primary-care access, and clinician prescribing behavior.

Risks

• Inclusion in the list does not guarantee certain revenue growth; actual volume expansion depends on hospital access, physician prescribing, patient affordability, and implementation of reimbursement policy.
• New innovative medicines may face price negotiations, centralized procurement, or reimbursement limits, so volume growth and revenue growth may not move in lockstep.
• An increasing number of competitors in the same therapeutic areas could compress single-product market share and pricing space.
• The report does not provide target prices, earnings forecasts, or quantitative sensitivity analysis; investment conclusions require validation with subsequent company financial updates.
• Changes in regulatory policy, reimbursement catalogs, essential-medicines implementation rules, and local procurement schedules can affect final commercialization outcomes.

What to watch

• The rollout pace of local implementation after the 2026 essential medicines list officially takes effect on September 1, 2026.
• The access speed of named medicines into primary healthcare institutions and changes in prescribing volumes.
• Whether relevant companies disclose sales ramp-up, distribution coverage, or updates to earnings forecasts.
• The impact of reimbursement policy, centralized procurement, price negotiations, and local procurement rules on prices of listed medicines.
• Changes in competitive dynamics in diabetes, oncology, autoimmune, COPD, and pediatric disease treatment areas.