Aier Eye Hospital: ASP expansion and high-end demand support growth, Goldman Sachs maintains Buy

Overview

This report summarizes Goldman Sachs' highlights and investment views after Aier Eye Hospital's group conference. The guest was company IR Jiang Yiqi, and the core discussion centered on cataract and anterior/posterior segment insurance-related businesses, refractive surgery growth, penetration of functional intraocular lenses, ASP changes, and opportunities in high-end ophthalmology services and global markets.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes that although macro uncertainty and weaker consumer spending suppress demand for ophthalmology services, refractive surgery growth has shown signs of bottoming out and is supported by new technology. In the future, the population aged 50 and above with net assets above Rmb3mn may generate more high-end, more self-paid ophthalmology treatment demand, especially for premium functional lenses. Aier Eye Hospital, with its scale, brand, and service network, is expected to replicate its success in refractive surgery and drive revenue growth through ASP expansion.

Analysis framework

The report combines company conference feedback, company data, Goldman Sachs research forecasts, and FactSet data for analysis. Valuation uses a 12-month target price framework, with the target price based on a 5-year exit P/E method, referencing the 2026E P/E of 21.6x for global healthcare service providers, while factoring in a stock adjustment factor. The report also discloses Goldman Sachs internal research frameworks including GS Factor Profile, M&A Rank, and Quantum database.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodology5-year exit P/E target price method

  Using global healthcare service providers' 2026E P/E of 21.6x as a benchmark, together with an industry adjustment factor of 0% and a stock adjustment factor of 25%, the 12-month target price of Rmb 15 is derived.

  This method links the company's future profitability and comparable healthcare service provider valuations to evaluate the stock's total return potential over a 12-month horizon.

• Factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Uses growth, financial return, valuation multiple, and composite percentile to compare the stock with the market and industry peers.

  The growth dimension references forward sales, EBITDA, and EPS growth; financial returns use ROE, ROCE, and CROCI; valuation multiples use P/E, P/B, dividend yield, EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF, among others.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  Goldman Sachs classifies covered companies into three levels based on potential takeover probability, with level 3 indicating low probability at around 0%-15%.

  Aier Eye Hospital discloses an M&A Rank of 3 in the table, meaning M&A factors are not a major driver of the target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Aier Eye Hospital (300015.SZ)

  Target covered by the report, with a Buy rating and a Rmb 15 target price.

  Strengths

  A leading Chinese ophthalmology hospital group; core operations include refractive surgery, optometry services, and cataract surgery; has scale and brand advantages to capture high-end self-paid ophthalmology demand; ASP improvement supported by rising penetration of premium functional lenses.

  Weaknesses

  Medical insurance-related businesses such as cataract, anterior segment, and posterior segment are weakened by slower medical insurance fund spending, so overall growth rate remains relatively weak; macro uncertainty and weaker spending power still suppress some demand.

  Comparison

  Target valuation references global healthcare service providers' 2026E P/E of 21.6x; the rating is set relative to other companies in Goldman Sachs' China healthcare coverage set.

  Risks

  Premiumization in cataract surgery could be slower than expected; price competition in refractive surgery could intensify; OK lens-related policies could bring greater pricing pressure.

Key data

• RatingBuyGoldman Sachs maintains a Buy view on Aier Eye Hospital.
• 12-month target priceRmb 15Based on the 5-year exit P/E method.
• Current priceRmb 10.55Price at the close on 2026-05-08.
• Implied upside42.2%Calculated from target price and current price.
• Market capRmb98.4bn / $14.5bnDisclosed in the report tables.
• 2026E revenueRmb24,697.4mnGoldman Sachs forecast.
• 2026E EPSRmb0.46Goldman Sachs forecast.
• 2026E P/E23.2xGoldman Sachs forecast.
• Share of premium functional lens revenue45%-50%Company conference feedback, referring to the share of premium functional lens-related revenue in surgery revenue.
• 2026Q1 ASP changeUp 4-5 percentage pointsRelated to higher penetration of functional lenses.

Impact & implications

If penetration of premium functional intraocular lenses and other self-paid treatments continues to rise, Aier Eye Hospital is expected to improve revenue quality through product mix upgrades despite medical insurance budget restraint and weaker consumption. The Buy rating and 42.2% implied upside indicate that Goldman Sachs believes the current share price does not yet fully reflect operating recovery and opportunities from high-end demand growth, but realization of valuation upside depends on the trajectory of premiumization, the competitive dynamics in refractive surgery, and changes in policy-driven pricing pressure.

Risks

• Premiumization in cataract surgery could be slower than expected.
• Price competition in refractive surgery could intensify.
• OK lens-related policies could bring greater pricing pressure.
• Slower medical insurance fund spending may continue to suppress growth in insurance-related businesses.
• Macro uncertainty and weaker consumer strength may impact demand for self-paid ophthalmology services.

What to watch

• Actual degree of price cuts in the next round of 2026 intraocular lens centralized procurement.
• Penetration rate and ASP changes of functional intraocular lenses in surgery revenue.
• Whether refractive surgery demand continues to bottom and then resumes growth.
• Whether high-net-worth people aged 50+ begin to unlock demand for high-end self-paid ophthalmology treatment.
• Policy and price-competition changes in the OK lens and refractive surgery segments.
• The company's global market positioning and overseas expansion progress.