Institutional Research

Morgan Stanley views broadly flat year-on-year iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max lead times outside China as constructive because premium production is 18% higher than last year. The firm remains focused on channel inventory, third-party sell-through and possible production-plan changes.

• At four days after pre-orders began, iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max lead times were generally flat to slightly longer year on year outside China.
• Premium iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max/Duo builds are estimated at 71 million in C2H26, versus 60 million iPhone 17 Pro/Pro Max builds in C2H25.
• The report argues that stable lead times despite better availability suggest underlying premium demand is healthier than feared.
• Early lead times have historically shown zero correlation with cycle strength, iPhone revenue or Apple share performance more than three months after launch.
• Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating and a $360 price target.

Barclays reassesses seven Asian semiconductor companies across water, power, climate adaptation and cybersecurity. TSMC leads the group, followed by Samsung, SK hynix and Kioxia; Chinese memory and foundry peers remain materially behind.

• The seven companies used more than 550mn m³ of freshwater in 2025, up 9% year-on-year.
• Under Barclays' costly water scenario, TSMC's estimated EBITDA downside is about 1%, versus much greater exposure for SMIC and CXMT.
• Renewable power reached 18% of sector consumption in 2025; Samsung and SK hynix led at 32% and 31%.
• TSMC, Samsung and SK hynix remain Overweight in Barclays equity research, while SK hynix credit was recently downgraded to Underweight on valuation.

Internet stocks rose 1% over the week versus 1% declines for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, led by Meta. Morgan Stanley retains an Attractive industry view, supported by below-average forward EV/EBITDA multiples for major platforms, while noting divergent segment performance.

• Internet names gained 1% last week, versus declines of 1% for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
• Meta rose 5%, while Alphabet was flat and Amazon fell 1%; travel and shared-economy stocks underperformed.
• Amazon, Alphabet and Meta traded at 11.0x, 14.6x and 10.1x next-12-month EV/EBITDA as of September 11.
• Internet next-12-month EV/EBITDA was 9% and 17% below its five- and 10-year averages, while EV/sales was 17% and 18% above those averages.
• Treating stock-based compensation as cash raises reported EV/EBITDA multiples materially across Internet subsectors.

The handbook sees a maturing but still expanding global eCommerce market, supported by modest penetration gains, high-margin ecosystem revenue and emerging agentic shopping. It favors regional leaders including Amazon, JD.com, Zalando, MercadoLibre, Coupang and Eternal.

• Global eCommerce sales are forecast to rise from $4.9tn in 2026 to $6.4tn in 2031.
• China and the US are expected to generate more than half of global growth despite slower 4% and 5% CAGRs.
• India and Latin America are expected to be the fastest-growing, least-penetrated regions.
• The report expects scaled platforms to continue taking share.
• Agentic shopping remains early and small, but consumer traffic is described as high intent.

August retail-sales growth slowed to 0.4% year-on-year, below consensus and July’s pace. HSBC nevertheless prefers snack retail, electric two-wheelers and dairy after 1H26 results, highlighting Yili, Ninebot and YUTO as Buy-rated stocks of the month.

• August retail sales grew 0.4% year-on-year, versus Bloomberg consensus of 0.8% and 0.6% growth in July.
• Service retail sales rose 4.9% year-on-year in 8M26, ahead of overall retail-sales growth of 1.1%.
• HSBC expects snack retail leaders to sustain rapid store openings in August and September.
• The e2W sector is seen as past its 2Q26 operating-pressure peak, with demand expected to improve in 3Q26.
• Rising raw-milk prices and dividends or buybacks are viewed as supportive for dairy leaders.

Bernstein's WCLC 2026 review finds that targeted therapies are materially improving SCLC outcomes and that first-line NSCLC competition is intensifying between bispecific antibodies and ADCs. The institution favors TROP2 ADCs on efficacy-safety balance and remains most positive on Kelun-Biotech's sac-TMT among covered names.

• First-line ES-SCLC standard PD-L1 plus chemotherapy delivers roughly 13 months of median OS, while targeted approaches are raising survival expectations.
• In relapsed ES-SCLC, Hansoh/GSK's HS-20093 achieved 18.5 months median OS and an OS hazard ratio of 0.46 versus topotecan.
• Bispecific antibodies lead first-line PD-L1 all-comer NSCLC response rates, but Bernstein sees TROP2 ADCs as better balanced on survival and safety.
• AK112 has the most mature first-line NSCLC OS evidence, while Datroway has the most advanced ADC OS signal.
• OptiTROP-Lung06 and AVANZAR are identified as key upcoming readouts for the first-line NSCLC competitive landscape.

The report argues that China’s demand backdrop is materially weaker than headline GDP suggests, yet fiscal and monetary policy are likely to remain restrained. Support is being redirected toward strategic supply-side sectors rather than broad consumer or infrastructure stimulus.

• Aggregate real demand contracted 0.8% year on year in Q2 and 0.5% in July-August, versus 2.9% growth in Q1.
• Retail-sales growth slowed to 1.1% year to date in August and fixed-asset investment contracted 7.2%.
• Barclays characterizes fiscal policy as de facto austerity: government expenditure fell 3% year to date while tax enforcement increased.
• Debt constraints, infrastructure saturation and forthcoming leadership reshuffles reduce incentives for another infrastructure-led stimulus.
• The PBoC is expected to favor targeted tools over aggressive policy-rate or reserve-requirement cuts.
• Policy financing and bank credit are shifting toward high-tech, green and strategic sectors.

Eternal Precision’s backlog, customer willingness to pay premiums and planned high-end capacity additions point to ABF equipment demand stronger than the prior upcycle. Goldman Sachs maintains Buy ratings on NYPCB and Kinsus, while remaining Neutral on Unimicron.

• Eternal Precision’s ABF vacuum-laminator order lead time has extended from 2028/29 to 2031.
• Goldman Sachs forecasts ABF substrate shortage ratios of 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028.
• The report estimates roughly 1,500 mid-to-high-end equipment orders for 2027-31, versus about 600 total units shipped in 2022-25.
• Buy ratings and unchanged 12-month targets are maintained for NYPCB at NT$2,500 and Kinsus at NT$1,125; Unimicron remains Neutral with a NT$1,220 target.

JPMorgan finds July production broadly resilient despite mixed category-level results and below-seasonal aggregate electronic-components value. It highlights sustained rigid-module-substrate growth, strong Si-MOSFET momentum and exceptional memory growth.

• Electronic substrates rose 19% YoY and 6% MoM in US-dollar production value; rigid module substrates remained particularly strong.
• Memory production value increased 408% YoY and 16% MoM in US dollars, while average unit price rose 404% YoY.
• MLCC volume continued to recover, but production value was broadly flat; JPMorgan gives greater weight to improving Ministry of Finance export data.
• JPMorgan retains Ibiden, TDK, Rohm and one of Murata Manufacturing or Taiyo Yuden as sector top picks.

The report forecasts RMB8.5 trillion of 2026-30E AI-related capex and 81GW of IT capacity by 2030E. It favors AI infrastructure, AI labs and GPU localization, while highlighting financing, utilization and supply-chain constraints.

• RMB8.5 trillion of total capex is forecast for 2026-30E.
• IT capacity is projected to reach 81GW by 2030E, including roughly 55GW of compute.
• Domestic hyperscalers are forecast to add 34GW of capacity in 2026-30E, or 47GW globally.
• Morgan Stanley is Overweight BABA, KC and VNET within AI infrastructure.
• Offshore capex financing and returns on compute investment are key considerations.