Institutional Research

Day-two conference takeaways focus on Pharvaris’s hereditary angioedema opportunity, Monopar’s ALXN1840 NDA path, Atea’s HCV program, and Adagene’s ADG126 development strategy. The report also outlines the catalysts and risks underlying its covered-company valuation frameworks.

• Pharvaris emphasized oral deucrictibant’s potential across on-demand and prophylactic HAE treatment.
• Monopar expects to complete its rolling ALXN1840 NDA submission within the next few months.
• Atea expects C-FORWARD HCV data in early 1Q27 and targets an NDA filing by mid-2027.
• Adagene expects randomized Phase 2 ADG126 data in 1H27.
• Ascendis valuation is driven by Skytrofa, Yorvipath, and TransCon CNP.

Nexchip is expected to expand 28nm/22nm capacity, increase power-semiconductor and data-center exposure, and develop OLED DDIC and silicon-photonics products. Goldman Sachs nonetheless lowers 2026-28E net-income estimates and its 12-month target price to Rmb60 from Rmb70 after a 2Q26 miss.

• Revenue is forecast to grow 24% in 2026E and 29% in 2027E.
• 2Q26 revenue was Rmb3,045mn, 9% below Goldman Sachs' estimate; gross profit and net income were 17% and 18% below estimates.
• 2026E-28E net-income forecasts are reduced by 17%, 6%, and 14%, respectively.
• The 12-month target price falls to Rmb60 from Rmb70, while the Neutral rating is maintained.
• Power-semiconductor contribution is expected to begin in 2H26 and ramp through 2027.

Morgan Stanley summarizes management updates from four biotechnology companies, highlighting BioAge's BGE-102 trials, Ionis's commercial launches and late-stage pipeline, Mirum's rare-disease catalysts, and Silence's divesiran program. The common theme is a catalyst-rich 2026-27 period, tempered by clinical-readout, regulatory, commercial, safety, and competitive uncertainty.

• BioAge expects BGE-102 QUELL-CV topline data by year-end 2026 and QUELL-DME data by year-end 2027.
• Ionis reiterated confidence in more than $3 billion of US peak sales for Tryngolza, while noting that market development will take time.
• Mirum reiterated $680-700 million of 2026 revenue across three approved medicines and retains a targeted first-half 2027 PSC filing for volixibat.
• Silence reported an 88% divesiran Phase 2 response rate versus 19% for placebo in polycythemia vera and plans to advance quarterly dosing into Phase 3.

Following a management NDR, JPMorgan retains Overweight on China CSSC Holdings and sees upside risk from additional Middle East LNG-carrier projects, higher-margin backlog conversion and productivity-led faster deliveries.

• Management is discussing further LNG-carrier projects with Middle Eastern customers beyond existing ADNOC orders.
• JPMorgan's 2H26E gross-margin forecast rises to 18.1% from 17.0% in 1H26, with further upside possible from mix and operating leverage.
• Larger cranes, dock extensions and tandem construction could accelerate vessel completion and revenue recognition.
• The report expects higher-priced 2023-2024 orders and a richer mix to support earnings through 2028E.
• JPMorgan values CSSC at 11.1x 2028E P/E for a Rmb50.00 December 2027 price target.

Morgan Stanley argues that AI, industrial automation and a broader Asian capex cycle can reinforce China’s manufacturing leadership. However, weak consumption, excess capacity and calibrated rather than decisive policy support may keep inflation and domestic demand subdued.

• Asia may enter its strongest industrial cycle since the mid-2000s, extending beyond AI and technology.
• Morgan Stanley expects China’s global export market share to reach 16.5% by 2030.
• Industry 5.0 could unlock US$12 trillion of additional industrial capex over the next decade.
• The report expects industrial margins to rise toward about 8% by 2035 from about 5% in 2025.
• Weak consumption, property-related pressure and excess capacity may limit the broader economic spillover from export strength.
• Premature fiscal consolidation, undisciplined AI and robotics investment, and wider trade frictions are key downside risks.

Morgan Stanley reiterates Overweight on Z.ai after management raised year-end ARR guidance from US$2.4bn to US$3.0bn. The report sees easing compute constraints, cloud revenue sharing from 4Q26 and enterprise adoption of Cowork as the key growth drivers.

• ARR reached approximately US$1.8bn by mid-September, versus US$3.0bn year-end guidance.
• A US$5bn funding round could support approximately 94,000 GPUs, including about 56,000 for inference.
• Cloud-vendor revenue-sharing arrangements are expected to begin contributing from October.
• More than 100 cybersecurity companies have integrated GLM models, with orders exceeding Rmb1bn within one month of GLM-5.3's launch.
• Morgan Stanley reiterates Overweight with a HK$1,800 target price and 150% indicated upside.

J.P. Morgan expects global investment-bank markets revenue to rise 10% year-on-year in 3Q26, led by Equities, and argues that the final weeks of September could create upside when banks report results. It retains a positive sector view despite an expected seasonal slowdown in the second half.

• Global IB markets revenue is forecast to rise 10% year-on-year in 3Q26, with US banks up 18% on average versus Europe up 2%.
• Equities revenue is forecast to rise 21% year-on-year in 3Q26, although down 27% sequentially from a record 2Q.
• FICC revenue is forecast flat year-on-year in 3Q26 and down 13% quarter-on-quarter.
• FY26 Equities Sales & Trading revenue is expected to reach a record, up 29% year-on-year, with prime brokerage the key driver.
• UBS and Deutsche Bank are included in J.P. Morgan's European Banks top-picks portfolio, reflecting an expected narrowing of their valuation discount to US investment banks.

Goldman Sachs argues that declining core-consumer populations and growth in retirees will increasingly shape product demand, corporate strategy and long-term growth. Its Demographic-Driven Demand framework highlights beneficiaries of older-age spending and sectors exposed to shrinking younger cohorts.

• Developed-market consumers aged 35-55 are projected to decline by about 3 million annually from 2030, while the 65+ population rises by about 4 million annually over the coming decade.
• The report sees tailwinds for healthcare, home improvement and repair, utilities, reading, senior care, cruises and discount retail.
• Education, food away from home, apparel and footwear, general electronics and vehicles face demographic headwinds.
• The DDD model combines age-based spending patterns, country demographics and company product and geographic revenue exposure through 2030, 2040 and 2050.

Morgan Stanley sees continued support for Pharmaron from rising outsourcing, constrained global small-molecule API capacity and a transition toward larger late-stage and commercial contracts. The report retains an Overweight rating and HK$36.50 target price for the Hong Kong-listed shares.

• Small-molecule API capacity remains tight globally, directing outsourcing toward leading Chinese CDMOs.
• Pharmaron’s reactor capacity is expected to double from 1,200 cubic meters to 2,400 cubic meters by 2028.
• Management indicated current utilization is very high and raised guidance incorporates improving early-stage biopharma funding and commercial backlog.
• Approximately 80% of capacity is expected to remain in China, alongside commercial-scale API capacity in Rhode Island and the UK.
• AI drug discovery contributes about 5% of overall revenue, primarily through lab services.
• The HK$36.50 target implies 25% upside from HK$29.10.

Nomura maintains Neutral on Trip.com, reducing its target price to USD44 from USD51. It expects weaker China hotel and air-ticketing operations in 2H26F, while Trip.com’s international business remains a growing but still insufficient offset.

• China-business revenue is forecast to decline 6% year-on-year in 3Q26F and 9% in 4Q26F.
• Domestic hotel policy changes and reduced airline commissions are expected to pressure near-term revenue.
• Trip.com international-brand revenue grew more than 50% year-on-year in 2Q26 and is expected to sustain over 50% growth in 3Q26F.
• Nomura cut FY27F revenue and operating-profit estimates by 5% and 2%, respectively.
• The USD44 target price is based on 11x FY27F P/E, versus 12x previously.