Asia's widening current account divide: AI-driven chip exports and higher oil prices are widening Asia's current-account divide

Overview

This Asia macro note examines a growing current-account divergence between Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia. Nomura attributes it to the uneven benefits of the AI boom across the technology supply chain, compounded by higher oil prices, and expects the divide to persist.

Core views

Nomura identifies an increasingly stark split between Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia in external balances. Northeast Asia's current-account surplus has risen to a record USD538bn on a 12-month rolling basis through July 2026, while deficits have widened in parts of Southeast Asia. The report treats this as a structural divergence rather than a uniform regional improvement in trade conditions. The main driver is the uneven transmission of the AI boom through Asia's technology supply chain. Taiwan and Korea occupy higher-value upstream positions and therefore capture substantial export gains from demand for AI servers and memory chips. By contrast, parts of Southeast Asia are more concentrated in lower-value assembly and downstream manufacturing, where the direct benefit from AI demand is smaller. Nomura also highlights that data-centre investment is import-intensive; in Thailand, this has contributed to persistent electronics trade deficits rather than an offsetting export surge. The report argues that the oil shock reinforces this technology-led divide. Higher oil prices create a negative terms-of-trade shock for Southeast Asian economies, most visibly Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia. These countries lack the sharply improving chip-export price offset available to parts of Northeast Asia, leaving their external positions more exposed to elevated energy costs. Nomura expects the current-account divergence to persist. In its view, Northeast Asia's surplus should support stronger external buffers, whereas Southeast Asia will remain more dependent on external financing conditions and more vulnerable to currency depreciation. The vulnerability would be particularly acute if El Niño worsens while oil prices remain elevated.

Analysis framework

The report compares 12-month rolling current-account balances across selected Asian economies and links the divergence to each economy's position in the technology supply chain and its exposure to higher oil prices. It uses monthly data where available and evenly distributes quarterly data across months for Taiwan and Indonesia; where July data were unavailable for Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines, it uses June data.

Methodology notes

• Other

  12-month rolling current-account comparison

  Nomura uses rolling 12-month current-account balances to compare external-balance trends across economies while reducing month-to-month volatility.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Technology supply-chain positioning

  The report explains differing external-balance outcomes by distinguishing higher-value upstream chip and server-related production from lower-value assembly and downstream manufacturing.

Key data

• Northeast Asia current-account surplusUSD538bnRecord 12-month rolling sum to July 2026
• Data availability adjustmentJune dataUsed for Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines where July current-account data had not been released

Impact & implications

Nomura sees the AI export cycle strengthening external buffers in Taiwan and Korea, while import-intensive investment and higher oil costs leave parts of Southeast Asia more exposed to tighter external financing conditions and currency weakness.

Risks

• Southeast Asian economies could face greater currency-depreciation pressure if El Niño worsens and oil prices remain elevated.