Global Macro Divergence Intensifies: AI Dividends Concentrated in US, Japan, Korea, Energy Shock Hits Emerging Markets Hard

Overview

This report is a summary of Nomura Securities' 2026 Asia Investment Forum (Singapore, June 2-5) macro views, covering chief economists' outlooks for the global and major economies, and incorporating nine on-site investor voting results. The core conclusion is: The current global economy is undergoing deep structural divergence, the driving factors have expanded from single oil price shocks to 'energy + chips + food' triple supply shocks, coupled with uneven distribution of AI technology dividends and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, leading to multiple cracks expanding synchronously within developed markets (strong US vs weak Europe), among emerging markets (North Asia受益 vs South Asia under pressure), and internally in each country (K-type growth).

Core views

At the global level, the economy is 'going its own way': The US, leveraging AI infrastructure investment, has become the only growth engine in developed markets, with expected GDP growth above trend levels; the eurozone is陷入 'stagflation correction', the Iran war boosts inflation and suppresses growth, but policy responses tend to be cautious; Japan, under the premise of easing Middle East situation, continues its recovery path, with wage growth sustainability enhanced and BOJ interest rate hike rhythm明确; Although China has AI investment pull (contributing about 0.3 percentage points to GDP), the aftereffects of the real estate collapse are profound -- sales of new homes by the top 100 real estate companies plummeted 72.7% during 2021–2025, dragging down fiscal revenue, household wealth, and the credit system, and exacerbating dual K-type分化 in income and regions along with AI dividends; Overall, Asia presents a 'north strong south weak' pattern, with Singapore, Taiwan, and Malaysia benefiting from the tech cycle and local infrastructure, while Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand face structural constraints such as worsening international收支, rising political risks, and declining competitiveness.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a 'multi-regional horizontal comparison + theme-driven attribution' framework: First, it breaks down the growth, inflation, and policy paths of each geographical unit (global, US, eurozone, Japan, China, Asia excluding Japan, ASEAN); then it extracts the common driving主线 -- attributing economic divergence to triple supply shocks (energy, chips, food) and the spatial unevenness of AI technology dividend distribution; finally, it verifies market consensus and分歧 points through investor voting data, forming a dual-track analysis logic of 'expert judgment + market verification'. All judgments are anchored to specific time points (such as Japan's economic contraction in Q2 2026, peak of Japan's core CPI in Q1 2027, China's AI capex contribution value in 2026), emphasizing the practical constraints of policy transmission lags (such as Middle East inflation transmitted to Japan's CPI six months later) and structural constraints (such as China's real estate debt, Southeast Asia's BOP pressure).

Methodology notes

• Cycle and Prosperity FrameworkProsperity Turning Point Analysis

  Identify the prosperity phase mismatches of different economies in terms of inflation, growth, and policy dimensions

  The report characterizes the global economy as not being in a synchronized cycle but rather coexisting with multiple local prosperity cycles by comparing the inflation peak timing of various countries (e.g., US CPI lags GSCPI by six months), policy turning signals (e.g., Japan's BOJ interest rate hike rhythm), and growth momentum switching (e.g., China's real estate拖累 vs AI pull)

• Industry/ Sector Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Trace the differences in macro performance back to supply-side shocks and changes in demand structure

  The report explicitly states that the main reason for the current divergence is the 'energy, chips, food' triple supply shocks, rather than单纯的 demand changes; it also attributes the limitations of AI dividends to China's dependence on chip imports and the geographic concentration of computing resources, demonstrating the decisive impact of supply-side bottlenecks on macro outcomes

• Macroeconomic frameworkMonetary-Credit Quadrant

  Combine inflation, growth, policy independence, and debt sustainability to evaluate the macro environment

  When analyzing the vulnerability of the bond market, the report attributes the rise in sovereign bond yields to four factors: rising inflation and weakening central bank independence, expanding fiscal deficits and rising public debt, large-scale issuance of global government bonds, and liquidity diversion from tech giants' bond issuance -- this is a typical application of the monetary-credit quadrant framework

Key data

• US AI capital expenditure contribution to GDPAbout 1 percentage pointExpected to directly boost US GDP growth in 2026 through AI infrastructure investment
• Japan BOJ policy interest rate target1.5%Expected to reach after three interest rate hikes in June 2026, December 2026, and June 2027
• Peak of Japan's core CPI3.6% y-o-yExpected to peak in the first quarter of 2027
• Decline in sales of new homes by top 100 real estate companies in China (2021–2025)72.7%Reflects the degree of systematic contraction in the real estate industry
• South Korea's current account surplus ratio in 202615.5% of GDPHits a record high, driven by improved trade conditions related to AI

Impact & implications

This macro picture implies: Asset allocation needs to放弃 the assumption of 'global rise and fall together' and转向 regional and thematic精细化 layout -- US stocks may continue to benefit from AI capital expenditure, the steepening of Japanese bond yields reflects the acceleration of normalization of monetary policy, China's stock and bond markets will be dominated by the dual博弈 of AI structural opportunities and the pace of real estate risk clearance; Within Asia, caution is needed regarding the capital flow disturbances and exchange rate fluctuations brought by the deepening north-south divergence; policymakers face greater balancing challenges: needing to应对 the inflation stickiness caused by supply shocks while防范 the 'stagnation' part持续 amplifying due to缺乏 post-pandemic demand and fiscal stimuli.

Risks

• Long-term Middle East geopolitical conflicts leading to持续 high global supply chain pressure index (GSCPI), exacerbating inflation stickiness
• China's real estate risk spilling over to local government financing platforms and the banking system, triggering systemic financial stability concerns
• AI technology dividends集中 in少数 countries and groups, exacerbating global and domestic inequality,抑制 aggregate demand
• Massive issuance of global sovereign bonds combined with the bond issuance wave of tech companies may trigger the reactivation of 'hawkish vigilantes' in the bond market

What to watch

• Whether the actual policy节奏 of the Fed and BOJ lag behind market expectations (high probability shown by investor voting)
• Whether the stickiness of eurozone service inflation forces the ECB to重启 the interest rate hike cycle
• The匹配度 of the推进 speed of China's 'AI+' strategy and the policy strength of handling real estate risks
• Whether BOP pressures in countries like Indonesia and the Philippines trigger capital controls or significant currency devaluation