Nomura maintains its view of global economic resilience, but risks are still accumulating
AI summary card
Nomura maintains its view of global economic resilience, but risks are still accumulating
The report argues that AI transformation, policy flexibility, and resilient demand in some economies support the outlook for H2 2026, but conflict in the Middle East, energy prices, sticky inflation, fiscal pressure, and central bank policy divergence remain the core uncertainties.
- The global economy remained resilient in the first half despite energy price shocks, rising inflation, and higher bond yields.
- The US is expected to maintain solid growth and elevated inflation, with the Fed most likely staying on hold for an extended period.
- Weaker data in Europe has led to lower rate hike expectations, but oil prices and the Middle East situation could reignite inflation pressure.
- Asia cannot be treated as a monolith: Taiwan and South Korea benefit more from the chip supercycle, while China faces a K-shaped structure in which weak demand coexists with uneven AI-driven growth.
- India's outlook has improved, while Indonesia and Thailand still warrant caution, and the regional outlook is collectively affected by deterioration in the Middle East situation.
Report interpretation
Overview
This is a global economic monthly outlook published by Nomura on July 14, 2026. The main theme is that the economy remains resilient, but risks are not low: AI transformation, some policy support, and the Asian tech cycle support growth, with global real GDP forecast at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027; however, energy and geopolitical conflict, sticky inflation, fiscal fragility, changes in central bank communication, and volatility in the AI cycle could alter the baseline path.
Core views
The report's core judgments include: US growth remains relatively solid with elevated inflation, and the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged; inflation pressure in Canada is under control, and the BoC is expected to keep rates unchanged in 2026; the eurozone is expected to see only one more hike in September because of softer data, but oil prices are an upside risk; moderating inflation in the UK gives the BoE time to wait and see; in Japan, policy focus is shifting to government fiscal arrangements and BOJ independence; China's domestic demand is unusually weak, and while fiscal spending may accelerate, the probability of near-term RRR cuts or rate cuts is limited; within Asia, divergence is clear, with Taiwan, Malaysia, and Singapore relatively stronger, while Indonesia and Thailand remain more cautious.
Analysis framework
The report uses a framework of global overview plus regional breakdown, combining forecasts for growth, inflation, and policy rates to compare the cyclical position, policy constraints, and sources of risk across the US, Canada, Europe, Japan, China, and other Asian economies. The focus is not on a single asset price, but on the interaction among macro variables: energy prices affect inflation, inflation affects central bank policy, and policy rates and fiscal arrangements further affect growth, employment, exchange rates, and bond yields.
Methodology notes
Using GDP, CPI, and policy rates as core variables to build regional and global forecast tables for 2025 to 2027.
The report compares major economies horizontally through the same set of core macro indicators, helping identify regional differences in growth resilience, inflation pressure, and central bank reaction functions.
While maintaining a positive baseline outlook, it also lists risks such as conflict in the Middle East, El Niño, an AI pullback, fiscal fragility, and market reactions.
The report does not treat macro forecasts as a single path, but instead emphasizes that energy, food, fiscal, and financial conditions could cause outcomes to deviate from the baseline.
Distinguishing the different drivers of the US, Europe, China, Japan, and other Asian economies.
The report particularly emphasizes that Asia cannot be generalized, and performance may diverge significantly between economies benefiting from tech exports and those facing weak domestic demand or external deficit pressure.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Global Macro Risk AssetsSupported by resilient global growth and AI transformation, but valuations and risk appetite are constrained by inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risk.
- Strengths
- Global GDP is still expected to remain in positive growth, with support from AI investment and some government policies.
- Weaknesses
- Inflation remains above target, and rising bond yields and fiscal fragility may weigh on valuations.
- Comparison
- Compared with a single-region recovery narrative, the report places greater emphasis on structural divergence within the global economy.
- Risks
- An escalation of conflict in the Middle East, a setback in the AI cycle, a rebound in energy prices, or reduced central bank guidance causing market volatility.
- US RatesThe Fed is expected to remain on hold, and the policy path is highly sensitive to inflation and labor market data.
- Strengths
- Growth remains solid, supported by fixed investment and personal consumption.
- Weaknesses
- Elevated inflation limits the scope for rate cuts and also leaves little basis for further easing.
- Comparison
- Compared with Europe, the US is more characterized by the combination of solid growth and sticky inflation.
- Risks
- Inflation fails to peak as expected, Fedspeak turns more hawkish, or geopolitical shocks push up energy prices.
- Eurozone RatesECB hike expectations have been reduced to only one hike in September, but oil prices and sticky services inflation could alter the path.
- Strengths
- The labor market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a low level.
- Weaknesses
- Growth data are soft, and energy shocks are putting pressure on real activity.
- Comparison
- Compared with the US, the eurozone is more affected by energy prices and political-fiscal constraints.
- Risks
- Middle East conflict pushes up oil prices, services price stickiness persists, and fiscal-political uncertainty rises in France and Germany.
- China Macro AssetsWeak domestic demand coexists with expectations of policy support, while AI-related exports provide only limited support to overall real growth.
- Strengths
- Policy may still accelerate fiscal spending, liquidity is ample, and CGB yields remain low.
- Weaknesses
- Retail sales, fixed asset investment, and domestic demand are weakening, while real estate and private-sector confidence continue to weigh on the economy.
- Comparison
- China shows clear divergence from AI hardware beneficiary economies such as Taiwan and South Korea.
- Risks
- The Middle East situation, US-China relations, the pace of policy stimulus, and changes in the real estate and stock markets could all bring two-way risks.
- Asian Economies Linked to the Tech CycleTaiwan, South Korea, Singapore, and parts of Malaysia benefit from the AI and chip supercycle.
- Strengths
- External demand and tech trade provide strong support, and growth forecasts for some economies are above the regional average.
- Weaknesses
- It takes time for the tech cycle to transmit to broader domestic demand, while financial stability risks are rising.
- Comparison
- Compared with Indonesia and Thailand, tech export-oriented economies have stronger growth momentum.
- Risks
- A decline in AI demand, semiconductor price volatility, tighter financial conditions, and slowing external demand.
Key data
- Global Real GDP Forecast3.4% in 2025, 3.1% in 2026, 3.2% in 2027From the forecast summary table, showing that global growth slows from 2025 but remains positive.
- Global Consumer Price Forecast2.9% in 2025, 3.4% in 2026, 2.7% in 2027The 2026 inflation forecast is revised upward, and is then expected to fall back in 2027.
- US Policy Rate Forecast3.625% at end-2026 and end-2027The report expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged for a prolonged period because growth is solid and inflation remains elevated.
- Eurozone Policy Rate ForecastOne more hike expected in September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%A more dovish ECB tone and weaker inflation have reduced the number of expected hikes, but higher oil prices remain a risk.
- China Real GDP Forecast4.5% in 2026, 4.0% in 2027The report believes China's domestic demand is unusually weak, and exports make only a limited net contribution to real growth.
- Adjustments to China's CPI and PPI Forecasts2026 CPI raised to 0.9%, PPI raised to 2.5%The upward revisions are due to imported inflation pressure from global oil prices and chip prices.
- Australia Growth and Rate Forecast2026 GDP 1.8%, 2027 GDP 1.6%; RBA cash rate 4.35% at end-2026 and 4.10% at end-2027High interest rates, housing-related budget changes, and oil price uncertainty are weighing on growth.
- Canada Policy OutlookBoC is expected to keep rates unchanged in 2026, with the policy rate forecast at 2.25%Inflation pressure is under control, the economy still has spare capacity, and the labor market is soft.
- South Korea Policy Rate PathThree 25bp hikes expected, with a terminal rate of 3.25%The BOK is focused on strong growth and demand-side inflation.
- Taiwan Economic ForecastReal GDP forecast of 11.6% in 2026 and 7.0% in 2027The forecast summary table shows Taiwan benefiting significantly from the chip and AI-related cycle.
Impact & implications
For investment research, the implication is that global macro risk is not a simple recession trade or broad recovery trade, but a coexistence of resilient growth, sticky inflation, policy divergence, and regional structural divergence. Rate assets need to focus on whether central banks continue to weaken forward guidance; equities and credit assets need to distinguish between AI beneficiaries and economies with weak domestic demand; commodities and FX need to closely track the Middle East situation, energy prices, and changes in trade conditions.
Risks
- The US-Iran MOU may prove fragile or the situation in the Middle East may deteriorate further, potentially pushing up oil prices and disrupting supply chains.
- El Niño may push up food prices and alter the path of inflation normalization.
- If the AI supercycle pulls back, it will affect Asian tech exports and expectations for global capital expenditure.
- Fiscal fragility and political fragmentation may limit policy space in Europe and other regions.
- Reduced forward guidance by central banks may trigger volatility in bonds and risk assets.
- Weak domestic demand in China, along with changes in the real estate and stock markets, may drag on growth.
- Trade uncertainty and risks related to the USMCA may weigh on open economies such as Canada.
What to watch
- Whether the Middle East conflict and oil price movements change the global inflation path.
- Follow-up policy communication from major central banks including the Fed, ECB, BoE, BOJ, BoC, RBA, and BOK.
- Whether US inflation peaks within the year as in the baseline scenario.
- The impact of eurozone services inflation and energy prices on the ECB path after September.
- Whether China's fiscal spending and government bond issuance accelerate noticeably.
- Whether AI-related demand continues to support trade performance in Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore.
- The impact of El Niño on food prices and inflation expectations in Asia.
- The impact of France's 2027 presidential election, and Germany's fiscal and pension reforms, on Europe's medium- to long-term growth.