Anta (02020): Deutsche Bank sees Puma China as a potential new growth engine for Anta from 2027

Overview

Deutsche Bank examines how Puma China could become a growth driver for Anta from 2027. The report sees operational and brand-building opportunities in China but stresses that Puma's wider turnaround is still early and does not justify a near-term increase in Anta's investment.

Core views

Following meetings involving Puma management and Anta, Deutsche Bank identifies China and apparel as key opportunity areas for Puma, even as the company remains early in a global business reset. Puma continues to face operational challenges amid broad sportswear destocking and elevated discounting. Nevertheless, its underpenetrated China business, together with differentiated exposure to HYROX and football, provides scope for localization and operational improvement. The Anta transaction is expected to close before year-end, with further detail on Puma's China strategy likely after completion. The report argues that Anta could position Puma in China as an accessible international performance brand: above core Anta and Li Ning, below Fila, and broadly in line with Adidas. Its initial operational priority would be converting franchised stores to direct-to-consumer operations. Deutsche Bank believes this could give Puma stronger control over merchandising, pricing, inventory and the consumer experience. Anta could also use its relationships with major landlords to secure flagship stores in prime shopping areas, supporting better traffic and a clearer brand position. On products and marketing, Anta's local expertise could help Puma adapt its portfolio, improve social-media presence and strengthen its China branding. The report highlights HYROX as a route to younger, affluent fitness consumers: tickets in China are selling out rapidly, while Puma is associated with roughly 25% of podium participants; HYROX has more than 150 races annually and over 2 million global participants. Deutsche Bank sees this, alongside football and other performance categories, as differentiated exposure that Anta can develop within Chinese sportswear trends. For Anta, Puma would diversify a portfolio currently led by China exposure and athleisure concentration through Fila and outdoor brands. Deutsche Bank notes that outdoor demand remains robust but competition is intensifying and the market could ultimately become saturated, making expansion into new categories and additional China growth avenues sensible in a soft-demand environment. Puma's franchise network and Western-market operating expertise could also support Anta's longer-term international expansion. The report does not expect Anta to increase its Puma stake in the near term. A larger investment would require further regulatory review, greater financial commitment and consolidation of Puma's financial statements. Given the early stage of Puma's turnaround and the likelihood that Anta's initial assistance will be concentrated on China, Deutsche Bank believes a further move is unlikely until visibility improves across both China and overseas markets.

Analysis framework

The report combines management-meeting takeaways with an assessment of Puma's China positioning, retail operating model, product and marketing opportunities, and the strategic implications for Anta's portfolio and international expansion. It also considers transaction, regulatory and financial constraints on a potential future increase in Anta's stake.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Anta (2020.HK)

  Primary covered company; could use its China retail, landlord and localization capabilities to develop Puma China.

  Strengths

  China market expertise, direct-to-consumer operating capabilities, landlord relationships and a multi-brand portfolio.

  Weaknesses

  Current portfolio remains concentrated in China and athleisure exposure through Fila and outdoor brands.

  Comparison

  Puma could be positioned above core Anta and Li Ning, below Fila and broadly in line with Adidas in China.

  Risks

  Puma's turnaround is early stage; a larger stake would require regulatory review, more capital and financial-statement consolidation.

• Puma

  Strategic investee and prospective growth platform for Anta in China.

  Strengths

  Underpenetrated China business and differentiated HYROX and football exposure.

  Weaknesses

  Operational challenges, broader sportswear destocking and elevated discounting.

  Comparison

  Potential China positioning broadly in line with Adidas.

  Risks

  Turnaround visibility remains limited in both China and overseas markets.

Key data

• Anta price at 28 Sep 2026HKD 72.00Reported current market price.
• 12-month price targetHKD 85.00Deutsche Bank target price; rating is Buy.
• HYROX participationMore than 150 races annually and over 2m participants globallyThe report cites Puma's association with around 25% of podium participants.
• Anta sales forecastCNY 89,045.4m in 2026E; CNY 97,089.3m in 2027E; CNY 105,936.9m in 2028EDeutsche Bank estimates.
• Anta DB EPS growth forecast12.2% in 2026E; 11.3% in 2027E; 6.6% in 2028EDeutsche Bank estimates.
• Anta valuation multiplesPER 11.7x in 2026E, 10.5x in 2027E and 9.9x in 2028EForecast valuation metrics shown in the report.

Impact & implications

Deutsche Bank views Puma as a potential route for Anta to broaden beyond its existing China-led, athleisure-heavy portfolio and gain longer-term international operating knowledge. The near-term value case rests on improving Puma's China execution rather than on a larger investment or rapid global turnaround.

Risks

• Puma continues to face operational challenges amid sportswear destocking and elevated discounting.
• Outdoor competition is intensifying and the market could eventually become saturated.
• A further Anta investment in Puma would require regulatory review, greater financial commitment and consolidation of Puma's financial statements.
• Puma's turnaround remains at an early stage, with limited visibility across China and overseas markets.

What to watch

• Completion of the Anta transaction before year-end and any subsequent disclosure of Puma's China strategy.
• Progress in converting Puma's franchised stores to direct-to-consumer operations.
• Evidence of localization, improved branding and social-media traction in China.
• Puma's operational recovery and visibility in both China and overseas markets.
• Whether Anta pursues a larger Puma stake after the turnaround becomes clearer.