ANTA Sports remains resilient amid industry slowdown; Nomura maintains Buy but cuts target price

Overview

This report focuses on ANTA Sports' 2Q26 operating performance, portfolio adjustments, and valuation changes against the backdrop of a slowdown in China's sportswear industry. Nomura believes that although overall industry sales momentum slowed in 2Q26, ANTA still outperformed peers thanks to its multi-brand portfolio and operational capabilities, and continues to be viewed as a preferred name in the sportswear sector.

Core views

The core view is that ANTA's 2Q26 sales performance was relatively solid, with ANTA core and FILA maintaining low-single-digit growth and other brands sustaining strong 25-30% growth; 1H26 performance still supports full-year sales targets. The company is defending mass-market share through brand management, store-format, and product/channel adjustments, while training- and outdoor-related brands such as DESCENTE and KOLON continue to contribute growth. On valuation, Nomura did not revise its FY26F revenue and earnings forecasts, but due to sector valuation de-rating in sportswear, it lowered the target F12M P/E to 17.5x and cut the target price to HKD89.90.

Analysis framework

The report combines operating data tracking, peer relative performance, brand portfolio analysis, and a valuation-multiple approach: first comparing 2Q26 and 1H26 retail sales growth by brand, then assessing the impact of the company's operating adjustments on market share and growth resilience, and finally deriving the target price using an F12M P/E multiple and comparing it relative to Li Ning's valuation.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsF12M P/E multiple method

  Deriving the target price based on the forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple

  Nomura bases ANTA's HKD89.90 target price on 17.5x F12M P/E, believing this multiple reflects the company's leading position and stable growth trajectory in China's sportswear industry.

• Relative ratingNomura equity rating system

  Expected 12-month performance relative to the benchmark

  Buy indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the relevant benchmark over the next 12 months; ANTA's benchmark index is the Hang Seng Index.

• Peer comparisonRelative valuation premium

  Comparison with Li Ning's F12M P/E

  The 17.5x target F12M P/E represents a 35% premium to Nomura's F12M P/E for Li Ning, based on ANTA's leading position in the sportswear industry.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ANTA Sports Products Limited (2020.HK)

  Core covered name in the report

  Strengths

  The multi-brand portfolio covers both mass-market and premium sportswear segments; 2Q26 sales outperformed the industry; other brands are growing quickly; the current FY26F P/E is 15.1x, which is considered attractive.

  Weaknesses

  ANTA core and FILA delivered only low-single-digit growth in 2Q26, indicating that the main brands' momentum is affected by industry slowdown and competition.

  Comparison

  Nomura assigns ANTA a target F12M P/E of 17.5x, a 35% premium to Li Ning's target valuation, on the basis of ANTA's stronger industry leadership.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition, sales growth below expectations, and a weaker-than-expected macroeconomy.

• Li Ning (2331HK)

  Peer valuation reference

  Strengths

  There is upside risk from basketball and athleisure, as well as recovery in lower-tier cities.

  Weaknesses

  Rated Neutral, with a target price of HKD16.00 and a valuation benchmark of 13x F12M P/E, lower than ANTA's target multiple.

  Comparison

  ANTA enjoys a valuation premium relative to Li Ning, and the report uses Li Ning as the relative P/E discount benchmark.

  Risks

  Weak macro environment and operating efficiency below expectations.

• Hang Seng Index

  Benchmark index for ANTA's rating and target price

  Strengths

  Used as the Hong Kong market benchmark for measuring relative performance.

  Weaknesses

  The index itself does not represent company fundamentals.

  Comparison

  A Buy rating means Nomura expects ANTA to outperform this benchmark over the next 12 months.

  Risks

  Overall market risk and macro volatility may affect target price realization.

Key data

• RatingBuyThe rating is maintained unchanged.
• Target priceHKD89.90Lowered from the previous HKD125.00.
• Closing priceHKD74.15As of 2026-07-17.
• Implied upside+21.2%Calculated based on the target price and current price.
• 2Q26 ANTA core sales growthLow-single-digit year-on-year growthThe company disclosed operating data on 2026-07-17.
• 2Q26 FILA sales growthLow-single-digit year-on-year growthSimilar to ANTA core, still outperforming the industry amid a slowing trend.
• 2Q26 other brands sales growth25-30% year-on-year growthDemonstrates growth support from the multi-brand portfolio.
• 1H26 brand sales growthANTA core mid-single-digit, FILA mid-single-digit, other brands 35-40% year-on-year growthThe report says the company remains on track to achieve full-year sales targets.
• FY26F revenue forecastCNY86,594mnNomura maintains its full-year FY26F revenue forecast.
• FY26F normalized EPSCNY4.47Equivalent to 15.1x FY26F P/E.
• Market capitalizationUSD26,451.5mnData shown on the report page.
• 3-month average daily turnoverUSD72.5mnADT shown on the report page.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is broadly positive: ANTA's ability to continue outperforming peers during an industry slowdown shows that its multi-brand strategy and operational adjustments are defensive in nature; the target price cut is mainly driven by sector valuation de-rating rather than earnings forecast downgrades. If the company can maintain high growth in other brands, improve ANTA core online and store efficiency, and preserve attractive valuation, the share price still has upside potential.

Risks

• Intensifying competition in domestic and global sportswear.
• Sales growth below expectations.
• Macroeconomic momentum weaker than expected.
• Further sector valuation de-rating may pressure the target valuation multiple.
• Execution of main-brand adjustments, store repositioning, and new-brand expansion may fall short of expectations.

What to watch

• Whether retail sales growth for ANTA core and FILA re-accelerates in subsequent quarters.
• Whether other brands, especially DESCENTE, KOLON SPORT, and Jack Wolfskin, can sustain high growth.
• Store efficiency and consumer feedback for ANTA SV, Super ANTA, and large-format ANTA Market stores.
• Whether double-digit growth in online channels can continue after product and channel adjustments.
• Changes in the competitive landscape and valuation levels of the sportswear industry.
• The impact of the macro consumption environment on demand for mass-market and premium sportswear.