Goldman Sachs maintains Buy on Anta Sports, with higher Amer associate income providing incremental support

Overview

This is a Goldman Sachs data update report on Anta Sports 02020.HK. The key change is incorporating Amer's stronger associate income after its broad 1Q26 beat and higher full-year guidance into Anta's model, while making a slight adjustment to interest income assumptions. The report keeps Anta at Buy and the 12-month target price of HK$108.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes Anta's long-term growth outlook remains positive, supported by solid multi-brand execution, the ability to manage costs effectively in a volatile operating environment, and the potential for its multi-brand platform to keep taking share. Short-term negatives include slower 2Q growth since April, weaker mass-sports brand consumption trends during the May Day holiday, and pressure on sentiment; however, discounts are expected to remain stable, and the current 13x 2026E P/E valuation is attractive.

Analysis framework

The report uses slight earnings forecast revisions, an associate-income contribution breakdown, and a P/E valuation framework. Goldman Sachs folded Amer's 1Q26 revenue growth of 32.1%, above the 24.7% consensus, and the higher FY26 guidance into Anta's forecast, raising its 2026E associate-income estimate from Amer from RMB 1.684 billion to RMB 1.762 billion, and maintained the target-price method based on 20x 2027E P/E discounted back to mid-2026 at an 11% cost of equity.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsP/E-based target price

  P/E-based target price

  Anta's 12-month target price of HK$108 is based on 20x 2027E P/E and discounted back to mid-2026 at an 11% cost of equity.

• Factor AnalysisGS Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs' factor profile compares a stock's position versus the market and industry peers across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and aggregate indicators, using inputs such as sales, EBITDA, EPS growth, ROE, ROCE, CROCI, and P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA.

• M&A AnalysisM&A Rank

  M&A probability ranking

  Goldman Sachs uses a 1-to-3 scale to assess the probability that a covered company becomes an acquisition target, with Level 1 at 30%-50%, Level 2 at 15%-30%, and Level 3 at 0%-15%; a Level 1 or 2 name may include an M&A component in the target price.

• Data ToolsQuantum

  Quantum

  Quantum provides detailed historical financial statements, forecasts, and ratios, and can be used for deep single-company analysis or cross-industry and cross-market comparisons.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Anta Sports Products 02020.HK

  Research coverage target, Hong Kong-listed sportswear company

  Strengths

  Strong multi-brand execution, validated cost control, upward revision to Amer associate income, stable discounts expected, and valuation seen as attractive.

  Weaknesses

  Slower growth since April in 2Q to date, weak mass-sports brand consumption during the May Day holiday, and subdued recent market sentiment.

  Comparison

  Valuation at 13x 2026E P/E; target price based on discounted 20x 2027E P/E.

  Risks

  Anta brand or Fila growth weaker than expected, discount pressure, and operating expense control weaker than expected.

• Amer

  Source of Anta's associate income

  Strengths

  1Q26 revenue grew 32.1% yoy, with all segments above consensus, FY26 guidance raised, and Outdoor Performance showing strong momentum.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide detailed disclosure on Amer's segment profitability or cash flow risks.

  Comparison

  1Q26 revenue growth above Goldman Sachs and FactSet consensus of 24.7%.

  Risks

  If Amer's future growth or guidance execution falls short of expectations, Anta's associate-income contribution could come in below current forecasts.

Key data

• RatingBuyGoldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating on Anta.
• 12-month target priceHK$108Valuation methodology unchanged.
• Disclosed priceHK$76.00The price listed in company-specific disclosure.
• Implied upsideApprox. 42.1%A rough calculation based on the HK$108 target price and the HK$76.00 disclosed price, excluding dividends.
• Net profit forecast revision+0.2% to +0.6%Raised Anta Group's 2026E-2028E net profit forecasts.
• Amer 1Q26 revenue growth+32.1% yoyAbove Goldman Sachs and FactSet consensus of 24.7%.
• 2026E Amer associate income forecastRMB 1.762 billionThe previous forecast was RMB 1.684 billion.
• Amer associate income shareApprox. 12%Roughly as a share of Anta Group's 2026E net profit.
• Valuation multiple13x 2026E P/EGoldman Sachs views this valuation as attractive.

Impact & implications

Amer's earnings and guidance improvement strengthens Anta's associate-income contribution and leads to a slight positive revision to the group's earnings forecast. The report does not change the target-price methodology or the rating, indicating that this update is more of an incremental earnings-model adjustment than a re-rating of the investment framework; however, against a backdrop of weak near-term consumption and softer growth sentiment, Amer's contribution and multi-brand execution help support Goldman Sachs's positive view.

Risks

• Anta brand growth weaker than expected.
• Fila growth weaker than expected.
• Renewed discount pressure.
• Operating expense control weaker than expected.
• Continued weakness in mass-sports brand consumption trends.
• Amer's results or guidance execution missing expectations, affecting associate-income contribution.

What to watch

• Amer's quarterly revenue growth, profit performance, and FY26 guidance delivery.
• Anta's 2Q and subsequent retail sales trends, especially whether the slowdown after April continues.
• Recovery in mass-sports brand consumption after the May Day holiday.
• Growth momentum in the Anta brand and Fila.
• Whether discount levels remain stable.
• Operating expense ratio and cost control performance.
• History of target price revisions and the direction of future earnings forecast revisions.