European investors retain selective interest in Chinese consumer stocks, focusing on luxury goods, shopping malls, and sportswear

Overview

This report summarizes feedback from Nomura’s discussions with about 30 institutional investors in Europe over the past two weeks. Although overall consumption fundamentals in China remain subdued, European investors still show relatively strong interest in the China consumer sector, especially in areas with structural growth opportunities such as luxury goods, shopping malls, and sportswear. The report also notes that sentiment toward other consumer subsectors such as retail, catering, and beer is negative, while concerns in home appliances mainly center on the pull-forward effect of China’s trade-in subsidy policy.

Core views

The core view is that the China consumer sector should not be allocated as a broad beta trade; instead, investors should select companies with structural development strategies, visible margin trends, attractive valuations, and recent share price corrections. Nomura continues to prefer ANTA in sportswear and Laopu Gold in retail; among them, Laopu Gold offers more attractive risk-reward if spot gold prices stabilize and the geopolitical environment becomes more benign.

Analysis framework

The report is mainly based on feedback from a European institutional investor roadshow, Nomura’s channel checks on leading shopping malls in China, valuation comparisons of covered companies, share price performance, and target price methodology. For key names, the report assesses investor focus points, business strategy, valuation multiples, and downside risks.

Methodology notes

• Investor feedbackEuropean institutional investor roadshow feedback

  Discussions with about 30 institutional investors

  Nomura discussed China consumer sector trends and investment ideas with about 30 institutional investors in Europe to identify the areas and stocks within different subsectors that attract overseas capital.

• Valuation methodologyP/E multiple valuation

  ANTA uses 17.5x F12M P/E; Laopu Gold uses 20x FY26F P/E

  ANTA’s target price of HKD89.9 is based on 17.5x forward 12-month P/E; Laopu Gold’s target price of HKD905 is based on 20x FY26F P/E.

• Relative ratingNomura equity rating system

  Buy indicates expected outperformance versus the benchmark over the next 12 months

  Nomura’s ratings are on a relative basis; Buy means the analyst expects the stock to outperform its relevant benchmark over the next 12 months, and the target price reflects the analyst’s estimate of current intrinsic fair value.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ANTA Sports Products (2020 HK)

  Nomura’s preferred sportswear name, rated Buy

  Strengths

  Solid channel operations, a leading position in China’s sportswear industry, and a relatively stable growth trajectory.

  Weaknesses

  Some investors question whether owning too many brands may result in insufficient synergies and sales cannibalization among brands.

  Comparison

  Compared with most consumer subsectors, sportswear is still viewed as a structural track of relatively greater interest to European investors.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition, slower-than-expected sales growth, a weaker-than-expected macroeconomy, and transaction-cycle and Western operating capability risks if the Puma acquisition moves forward.

• Laopu Gold (6181 HK)

  Nomura’s preferred retail name, rated Buy

  Strengths

  By entering China’s high-end shopping malls, it is building mindshare among affluent and elite consumers, with the potential to become a high-end domestic brand in China.

  Weaknesses

  Investors are divided over whether falling gold prices will drag on sales, weak domestic demand, and the long-term sustainability of its premium branding strategy.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional retail, Laopu Gold attracts more attention but is also more controversial, with the core issue being the dual impact of brand positioning and the gold price cycle.

  Risks

  A significant weakening in gold prices, higher-than-expected fashion risk, and a weaker-than-expected macro environment.

• China consumer sector

  The industry theme covered by this report

  Strengths

  Subsegments such as luxury goods, shopping malls, and sportswear still offer structural growth opportunities.

  Weaknesses

  Overall consumption trends are weak, limiting short-term earnings upside.

  Comparison

  Feedback on most other consumer subsectors such as retail, catering, and beer is negative; the home appliance sector is affected by concerns over policy-driven demand pull-forward from trade-in subsidies.

  Risks

  Insufficient support from consumption policies, a weaker-than-expected recovery in the property wealth effect, and continued softness in macro demand.

Key data

• Report date2026-07-21The cover page shows the date as 21 July 2026.
• Number of European investor meetingsAbout 30 institutional investorsThe report states that around 30 institutional investors were met in Europe over the past two weeks.
• ANTA Sports Products rating and priceBuy; target price HKD89.90; current price HKD76.85; upside 17.0%Current price as of 2026-07-20.
• Laopu Gold rating and priceBuy; target price HKD905.00; current price HKD365.40The disclosure table lists Laopu Gold (6181 HK) as Buy, with a current price of HKD365.40.
• Nomura global equity rating distributionBuy 58%; Neutral 39%; Reduce 3%Statistics as of 2026-06-30.

Impact & implications

In terms of investment implications, European capital has not completely abandoned China consumption, but it is more inclined toward structural growth and verifiable operating quality rather than broadly buying consumer recovery beta. Policy stimulus, property market stabilization, and changes in gold prices will influence sector risk appetite; at the individual stock level, ANTA and Laopu Gold remain focal points of discussion, but both face clear execution and external-variable risks.

Risks

• China’s economic and consumption trends continue to weaken, limiting earnings elasticity for consumer companies.
• The details of consumption stimulus policies may be insufficient or implementation may be weaker than expected.
• Signs of stabilization in the property market may fail to persist, and the negative wealth effect may not be fully over.
• A decline in gold prices may drag on Laopu Gold’s sales and market expectations.
• ANTA’s brand diversification may lead to insufficient synergies, sales cannibalization, or pressure from M&A integration.
• Subsectors such as retail, catering, beer, and home appliances may continue to be affected by weak demand or policy pull-forward effects.

What to watch

• Whether China’s consumption-related policies will be further relaxed and how strongly they will be implemented.
• Whether property transactions and high-end residential sales in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and tier-1 and tier-2 cities continue to improve.
• Sales performance of European luxury companies in China and channel check results from high-end shopping malls in China.
• The trend in spot gold prices and its impact on Laopu Gold’s sales and valuation.
• ANTA’s channel operating performance, synergy across its brand portfolio, and progress on the Puma acquisition.
• Whether 1H26 and FY26 results of China consumer companies validate market concerns over weak demand.