Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy on Anta Sports with a 12-month target price of HK$108

Overview

This report reviews Anta Sports' retail sales in 2Q26 and key takeaways from the conference call. Goldman Sachs believes the company's 2Q26 sales performance was broadly in line with market expectations. Although growth in the core brand and Fila slowed sequentially due to the shifting timing of Chinese New Year, an extended 618 promotion period, unfavorable weather, and softer macro demand, Anta as a whole still outperformed major peers, while other brands, especially Descente and Kolon, maintained strong growth.

Core views

Goldman Sachs reiterates its Buy rating on Anta Sports based on four core reasons: first, 1H26 retail performance was slightly ahead of full-year guidance and management maintained the full-year growth targets; second, Anta's core brand and Fila still achieved double-digit online channel growth, with discounts and inventory generally under control; third, Descente, Kolon, and other brands provided incremental growth; fourth, the company has multi-brand operating capability and cycle-resilience, while its current valuation of around 13x 2026E P/E is not demanding.

Analysis framework

The report combines operating data tracking, brand segment breakdown, management conference call information, peer retail performance comparisons, and earnings forecast revisions, with a focus on analyzing 2Q26 and 1H26 retail sales growth, channel performance, discounts and inventory, the degree of full-year guidance delivery, and valuation attractiveness.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsP/E-based target price

  P/E valuation method

  Goldman Sachs' 12-month target price of HK$108 is based on 20x 2027E P/E, discounted back to mid-2026 using an 11% cost of equity.

• factor_profileGS Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs factor profile

  This framework compares individual stocks by percentile against the coverage universe and industry peers across four dimensions: growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite metrics.

• m_and_aM&A Rank

  M&A probability rating

  Goldman Sachs assigns Anta an M&A Rank of 3, indicating a low likelihood of becoming an acquisition target, which is typically not incorporated into the target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Anta Sports Products (2020.HK)

  Research target

  Strengths

  Strong multi-brand operating capability, 1H26 retail performance slightly above full-year guidance, strong growth in other brands, and an undemanding valuation of around 13x 2026E P/E.

  Weaknesses

  Sequential growth slowed in 2Q26 for the core brand and Fila, some channels saw deeper discounts, and gross margin may face slight pressure.

  Comparison

  Anta's overall 2Q26 performance was better than peers such as Xtep, Li Ning adult and kids, Pou Sheng, and Topsports.

  Risks

  Anta core brand or Fila growth coming in below expectations, wider discount pressure, and weaker-than-expected expense control.

• Fila

  Core business brand

  Strengths

  Low double-digit growth in the online channel, with 1H26 retail sales growing at a mid-single-digit pace and close to the high-single-digit range, still in line with full-year mid-single-digit growth guidance.

  Weaknesses

  Declines in the offline channel weighed on 2Q26 performance, with offline discounts deepening by about 1 percentage point.

  Comparison

  2Q26 growth slowed from low double-digit growth in 1Q26.

  Risks

  Weak offline traffic, discounts, and demand may continue to pressure performance.

• Descente

  Growth engine among other brands

  Strengths

  2Q26 grew about 20% year over year, 1H26 grew 25%-30%, with healthy discount discipline and inventory, while categories such as running shoes, women's apparel, skiing, and golf contributed to growth.

  Weaknesses

  Resilience in high-end consumption is an important support, implying some dependence on the spending environment of the target customer group.

  Comparison

  It was one of the strongest performers among other brands and an important source of upward earnings forecast revisions.

  Risks

  Changes in demand from high-income consumers and weaker-than-expected execution in category expansion.

• Kolon

  Growth engine among other brands

  Strengths

  2Q26 grew 40%+ year over year, with healthy discounts and inventory below four months, while its professional outdoor positioning continued to strengthen.

  Weaknesses

  The sustainability of rapid growth still needs to be further validated.

  Comparison

  Its growth rate was significantly higher than that of the core brand and Fila, making it the key contributor to growth among other brands.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition in outdoor categories and execution risks in store and product expansion.

• Jack Wolfskin

  Newly integrated and repositioned brand

  Strengths

  China channel restructuring is progressing faster than expected, Europe is progressing in line with expectations, and the brand plans to open flagship stores in China and launch localized new products.

  Weaknesses

  Management expects it to remain loss-making in 2026.

  Comparison

  Its short-term earnings contribution is weaker than that of Descente and Kolon.

  Risks

  The China business is targeted to become profitable only by 2027 and the global business only by 2028, creating integration and brand repositioning risks.

Key data

• 12-month target priceHK$108.00The target price and valuation methodology remain unchanged.
• Current priceHK$74.15Price disclosed on the report cover page.
• Implied upside45.7%Calculated based on the target price relative to the current price.
• Market capitalizationHK$207.4bn / US$26.5bnDisclosed in the report's Key Data.
• Enterprise valueHK$249.0bn / US$31.8bnDisclosed in the report's Key Data.
• 2Q26 Anta core brand retail sales+LSD% yoyGrowth slowed from high-single-digit growth in 1Q26 due to the shifting timing of Chinese New Year, an extended 618 promotion period, and weather impacts.
• 2Q26 Fila retail sales+LSD% yoyLow double-digit online growth was dragged down by offline weakness; 1H26 was mid-single-digit growth, close to high-single-digit growth.
• 2Q26 other brands retail sales+25%-30% yoyDescente and Kolon performed strongly.
• 2Q26 Descente growth+20% yoyCore products, running shoes, and women's apparel performed strongly, with healthy inventory and discounts.
• 2Q26 Kolon growth+40%+ yoyDiscounts remained healthy, with all-channel discounts below 10% and inventory below four months.
• 2026E revenueRmb88,352.1mnGoldman Sachs forecast.
• 2026E EPSRmb5.15Goldman Sachs forecast, slightly raised from the prior forecast of Rmb5.11.
• 2026E P/E12.4xDisclosed in the report valuation table.

Impact & implications

The report carries a positive investment implication: Anta still outperformed peers such as Li Ning, Xtep, Pou Sheng, and Topsports despite unfavorable industry demand, weather, and promotional conditions, demonstrating the strength of its brand portfolio and operating capabilities. Rapid growth in other brands and expense control supported a slight upward revision to earnings forecasts, while valuation remains attractive, which is key to maintaining the Buy rating.

Risks

• Anta core brand or Fila growth may come in below expectations.
• Intensifying industry promotional competition could increase discount pressure.
• Expense control may be weaker than expected.
• Unfavorable weather, softer macro demand, and consumption uncertainty may continue to affect sales.
• Jack Wolfskin is still expected to be loss-making in 2026, and there are execution risks around brand repositioning and the profitability timeline.

What to watch

• Whether Anta's core brand and Fila can maintain or restore growth in 2H26.
• Whether online discounts normalize after 618 and whether offline discounts continue to deepen.
• Whether the high growth of Descente and Kolon is sustainable.
• Progress in Jack Wolfskin's China channel restructuring, new store openings, and new product launches.
• Further progress in the Puma acquisition process.
• Delivery against FY26 revenue and earnings guidance.