April Retail Sales Growth Slows to 0.2%; Prefer Anta Sports, Lao Pu Huang Jin, and Haidilao

Overview

This report, issued by Nomura International (Hong Kong), analyzes China’s April 2026 consumption data. It highlights that April’s total social retail sales growth slowed further to 0.2% YoY—significantly below the consensus forecast of 2.0%—indicating broadening weakness across the consumer sector. In the absence of strong demand-side policy stimulus, although positive signals have emerged in residential property sales in select Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities, the report cautions that this does not yet signal a genuine recovery in the property market, and its impact on consumer sentiment remains limited. Against this backdrop, the report favors companies with clear strategic direction, visible profit margin trends, and attractive valuations—and continues to recommend Anta Sports, Lao Pu Huang Jin, and Haidilao.

Core views

Macro and industry level: April consumption data were weak. Total retail sales growth decelerated to 0.2% YoY from 1.7% in March, missing the Wind consensus forecast of 2.0%. Excluding the drag from automobile sales, retail sales of goods rose 1.8% YoY—down from 3.2% in March—reflecting broad-based softening in consumer demand. Performance diverged sharply across subcategories. Catering services showed resilience, growing 2.2% YoY in April (2.9% in March); retail sales of goods dipped 0.1% YoY (up 1.5% in March). Essential consumption held up well: beverages, tobacco & liquor, and daily necessities posted YoY growth of 3.6%, 11.7%, and 3.5%, respectively. In contrast, discretionary consumption faced severe pressure: gold and silver jewelry retail sales plummeted 21.3% YoY (vs. +11.7% in March), mainly due to gold price volatility and seasonal lull; home appliance retail sales declined 15.1% YoY (vs. -5.0% in March), attributed largely to the phasing out of government trade-in subsidies; petroleum product retail sales turned negative, falling 6.5% YoY after a marginal 0.1% increase in March. Stock selection rationale: Amid weakening retail momentum and absent policy-driven demand stimulus, the report prefers companies with clear strategic direction, visible profit margin trends, and attractive valuations. Specifically, it reiterates its top pick in sportswear—Anta Sports—arguing that market reaction to its acquisition of Puma equity may be overly pessimistic; it favors Lao Pu Huang Jin in the retail space, believing it can sustain relatively stable margin trends, improve operating leverage, and better control costs; and it likes Haidilao, given its recent management restructuring and the expectation that new brands will deliver sales performance above market consensus.

Analysis framework

The report employs a typical analytical framework of 'macro data validation → industry structure decomposition → bottom-up stock selection'. First, it compares actual published social retail sales data against market consensus forecasts to assess the temperature and trend of the macro consumer environment. Second, it decomposes aggregate retail data into catering and goods retail, and further segments goods retail into essentials (e.g., beverages, tobacco & liquor, daily necessities) and discretionary categories (e.g., jewelry, home appliances, automobiles), identifying divergence in subsector health and underlying drivers (e.g., subsidy phase-out, price volatility, seasonality). Finally, in an environment of weak industry beta, it shifts focus to alpha generation—selecting high-quality names resilient to macro headwinds based on strategic clarity, earnings quality (margins, operating leverage), and valuation.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Volume-Price Decomposition

  The report implicitly applies volume-price logic when analyzing gold & silver jewelry and home appliance sales, attributing sales declines primarily to gold price fluctuations (price factor) and the withdrawal of government trade-in subsidies (volume/demand factor), helping readers understand the fundamental drivers behind sales changes.

• Valuation MethodologyP/E and PEG Valuation

  P/E and PEG Valuation

  The report explicitly anchors valuation on forward P/E multiples. For example, it assigns Anta Sports a forward 12-month P/E of 25x (aligned with its five-year average forward P/E), and Lao Pu Huang Jin a 22.5x P/E for FY2026—standard relative valuation approaches used in consumer electronics and retail sectors.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Anta Sports (2020 HK)

  Beneficiary: The report argues market reaction to its Puma equity acquisition is overly pessimistic, and highlights its clear strategy and attractive valuation.

  Strengths

  Clear strategic direction, visible margin trend, attractive valuation (25x F12M P/E)

  Weaknesses

  Intense domestic and global competitive pressures

  Comparison

  Top pick within the sportswear sector

  Risks

  Intensifying competition; sales growth slower than expected; weaker-than-expected macroeconomic dynamics

• Lao Pu Huang Jin (6181 HK)

  Beneficiary: Within the retail space, the report believes it can maintain relatively stable margin trends, improve operating leverage, and achieve better cost control.

  Strengths

  Relatively stable margin trend, improved operating leverage, stronger cost control

  Weaknesses

  High sensitivity to gold price volatility

  Comparison

  Favored within the retail space

  Risks

  Significant gold price weakness; higher-than-expected fashion risk; weaker-than-expected macro environment

• Haidilao (6862 HK)

  Beneficiary: Given its recent management restructuring, the report expects new brands to deliver sales performance above market consensus.

  Strengths

  New brand growth potential driven by management restructuring

  Weaknesses

  Slower-than-expected operational improvement

  Comparison

  Favored within the catering services sector

  Risks

  Slower-than-expected operational improvement; food safety issues; rising labor and commodity costs

Key data

• April YoY Growth in Total Social Retail Sales0.2%Below March’s 1.7% and market expectations of 2.0%
• April YoY Growth in Retail Sales of Goods (Excl. Automobiles)1.8%Below March’s 3.2%
• April YoY Growth in Catering Revenue2.2%Slower than March’s 2.9%, but remains positive
• April YoY Growth in Retail Sales of Gold & Silver Jewelry-21.3%Reversed from +11.7% in March
• April YoY Growth in Retail Sales of Home Appliances-15.1%Worsened from -5.0% in March
• Anta Sports Target PriceHKD 125Based on 25x Forward 12-Month P/E
• Lao Pu Huang Jin Target PriceHKD 1,114Based on 22.5x FY2026 P/E

Impact & implications

The report concludes that the further deterioration in April’s consumption data signals widening softness in the consumer sector absent substantive demand-side policy stimulus. While recent positive signals in residential property sales in some Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities are noted, they do not yet indicate a turnaround in the property market—and thus their boost to consumer confidence remains limited. Under such conditions, investors should avoid sectors highly sensitive to macro cycles and policy withdrawal (e.g., home appliances, jewelry), and instead focus on high-quality companies capable of offsetting macro beta pressure through internal alpha drivers (e.g., management improvements, cost control, new brand growth).

Risks

• Intensifying domestic and international competition (for Anta)
• Sales growth slower than expected
• Weaker-than-expected macroeconomic dynamics
• Significant gold price weakness (for Lao Pu Huang Jin)
• Higher-than-expected fashion risk
• Slower-than-expected operational improvement (for Haidilao)
• Food safety issues
• Rising labor and commodity costs

What to watch

• Whether demand-side policy stimulus targeting consumption is introduced
• Sustainability of residential property sales in Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities and their actual transmission effect on consumer confidence
• Integration progress and market sentiment following Anta’s Puma equity acquisition
• Whether Haidilao’s new brands truly deliver sales performance above market consensus