Nomura maintains its Buy rating on ANTA Sports and lowers the target price to HKD89.90

Overview

This report is Nomura's company research and rating adjustment report on ANTA Sports (02020.HK). The core conclusion is that, despite slowing sales momentum in China's sportswear industry in 2Q26, ANTA continued to outperform the industry through its multi-brand portfolio and operational adjustments. Nomura maintains its FY26 full-year revenue and earnings forecasts and its Buy rating, but lowers the target price from HKD125.00 to HKD89.90 due to industry valuation compression.

Core views

Nomura believes ANTA remains its preferred stock in the sportswear sector, based mainly on the following factors: ANTA's core brand, FILA, and other brands all maintained positive growth in 2Q26; other brands benefited from exposure to training and outdoor categories and grew more strongly; operational adjustments should help the ANTA core brand defend its mass-market share; and the current 15.1x FY26F P/E valuation is attractive.

Analysis framework

The report focuses on brand retail sales performance in 2Q26 and 1H26, compares ANTA's sales momentum with that of sportswear peers, and assesses investment value based on its brand portfolio, channel and store adjustments, competitive dynamics in subcategories, and relative valuation multiples. For valuation, it uses a 12-month forward P/E approach, with Li Ning (2331 HK) as the relative valuation reference.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsforward_p_e_multiple

  12-month forward P/E valuation

  The HKD89.90 target price is based on 17.5x F12M P/E, representing a 35% premium to Li Ning's 13x F12M P/E and reflecting ANTA's leading position and relatively stable growth trajectory in China's sportswear industry.

• relative_ratingbenchmark_relative_rating

  Benchmark-relative rating system

  Nomura's Buy rating indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the specified benchmark over the next 12 months; ANTA's benchmark index is the Hang Seng Index.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ANTA Sports Products (02020.HK)

  Core covered stock

  Strengths

  Multi-brand strategy, industry-leading position, high growth in other brands, ongoing operational adjustments, and relatively attractive valuation.

  Weaknesses

  2Q26 sales momentum slowed from the previous period, with the core brand and FILA growing only by low-single digits.

  Comparison

  Compared with the sportswear industry overall, ANTA's 2Q26 sales performance was more resilient; its target P/E carries a 35% premium to Li Ning's.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition, sales growth below expectations, and a weaker-than-expected macroeconomic environment.

• Li Ning (2331 HK)

  Relative valuation reference

  Strengths

  Provides a valuation anchor as a China sportswear peer.

  Weaknesses

  The report assigns it a Neutral rating, with a target F12M P/E of 13x, below ANTA's.

  Comparison

  ANTA's target 17.5x F12M P/E represents a 35% premium to Li Ning's 13x.

  Risks

  Risks related to Li Ning include recovery in basketball and athleisure, performance in lower-tier cities, and changes in the macro environment and operating efficiency.

Key data

• 2Q26 ANTA core brand sales growthLow-single-digit year-on-year growthThe report states that ANTA core brand sales grew by LSD% year on year in 2Q26.
• 2Q26 FILA sales growthLow-single-digit year-on-year growthThe report states that FILA sales grew by LSD% year on year in 2Q26.
• 2Q26 other brand sales growth25-30% year-on-year growthOther brands include DESCENTE and KOLON and were supported by exposure to training and outdoor categories.
• 1H26 brand sales performanceANTA core/FILA/other brands: mid-single-digit/mid-single-digit/35-40% year-on-year growthNomura believes the company remains on track to achieve its full-year sales target.
• Target priceHKD89.90Lowered from the previous HKD125.00.
• Current priceHKD74.15The price date is 2026-07-17.
• Implied upside21.2%Based on the target price and current price disclosed in the report.
• FY26F P/E15.1xThe report considers the valuation attractive; FY26F EPS is CNY4.47.
• Market capitalizationUSD26,451.5mnDisclosed in the report's key data table.
• 3-month average daily turnoverUSD72.5mnDisclosed in the report's key data table.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that slowing industry sales and intensifying competition have compressed sportswear-sector valuations, but ANTA's multi-brand structure, growth in outdoor and premium brands, and channel and store adjustments provide relative defensiveness. The target price cut reflects industry valuation pressure, while maintaining the Buy rating indicates that Nomura remains positive on ANTA's long-term structural opportunities relative to peers.

Risks

• Intensifying competition in domestic and global sportswear.
• Sales growth slower than expected.
• Macroeconomic momentum weaker than expected.
• Further industry valuation compression could weigh on the target price.
• Brand adjustments or the rollout of new store formats may be less effective than expected.

What to watch

• Sustainability of online sales for ANTA's core brand after product and channel adjustments.
• FILA's recovery or resilience amid the industry slowdown.
• Growth in training and outdoor demand for DESCENTE, KOLON, and other brands.
• Execution of new-store openings and product rollouts for Jack Wolfskin.
• The impact of the ANTA SV, Super ANTA, and large-format ANTA Market store models on mass-market share.
• Overall sales momentum and changes in valuation multiples in China's sportswear industry.