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2026-09-11 Daily Quick Read | Hilo Research

Summary

The current market is dominated by an AI-driven semiconductor and infrastructure supercycle, with demand for memory chips, advanced packaging, and server racks continuously exceeding expectations, while traditional consumer electronics face significant headwinds. At the macro level, China exhibits a structural divergence between upstream reflation and weak downstream consumption; in commodity markets, constrained supply of aluminum and coking coal supports prices, and the lithium market is tightening due to the boom in energy storage. On the corporate side, new regulations on platform economy pricing are expected to end irrational subsidy wars, while industrial 5.0 and humanoid robots are ushering in a new decade-long capital expenditure cycle.

2026-09-1159 reports6 institutions
Published: Content updated:
01

AI Semiconductor, Memory, and Equipment Supercycle

12 Related reports

Key views

Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs confirmed that the AI-driven semiconductor upcycle is in its early stage, with overall revenue in 7 rising 129% year-on-year, including a 435% surge in memory chips due to HBM demand; TSMC's advanced node utilization exceeded 100%, and J.P. Morgan significantly raised its global WFE market growth forecasts for 2026-2028 to 31%, 38%, and 17%, with ASML's EPS in a bull case scenario standing 67.5% above consensus estimates for 2028.

Current market environment

The current semiconductor industry exhibits extreme structural divergence: AI computing power, HBM memory, and advanced packaging capacity are severely tight, with long-term agreements already locked in at high pricing through 2027-2028, whereas demand for traditional consumer electronics, PCs, and mature-node logic chips remains weak, dragging down margins for some ODMs and non-AI hardware.

Future market changes

These reports do not specify a future scenario.

Related reports(12)

This content is compiled from institutional research report views, is for research reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.

Zhejiang ICP No. 2022035445-5
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