Aurora targets a major driverless-truck ramp and 2027 DaaS transition, while Goldman Sachs remains Neutral with a $6 target

Overview

This conference-takeaways report reviews Aurora Innovation’s progress in launching and scaling driverless trucks, its verifiable-AI and simulation approach, and the planned transition to Driver as a Service. Goldman Sachs remains Neutral rated with a $6 12-month price target.

Core views

Aurora reported progress in ramping the recently launched driverless International trucks, which are upfitted by Roush and use second-generation Aurora Driver hardware manufactured by Fabrinet. Management reiterated expectations for 20–25 International trucks in operation by the end of 3Q and roughly 200 trucks exiting 2026, with a target pace of 20 truck additions per week later in the year. The company believes its supply-chain preparation supports these ramp objectives, though it acknowledged that new-product production ramps can be difficult. Gen 2 hardware costs are approximately 50% below Gen 1, while Gen 3 is expected to provide a further material cost reduction in a similar percentage range. Aurora stated that Gen 2 could support up to 1,500 trucks next year before its Gen 3 hardware launches with Aumovio. On line-side integration, Aurora cited Volvo’s expectation to begin operating Aurora-powered autonomous trucks in 1Q27 and Volvo’s plan to reach 300 trucks on the road by the end of 2027. Aurora said it could potentially develop a similar arrangement with International/Traton, and it plans to work with Paccar on line-side integration for Gen 3 hardware. These relationships are relevant to the path from upfitted vehicles toward larger-scale deployment. Aurora described its autonomous-driving technology as a verifiable-AI approach that combines AI techniques with system guardrails and constraints, such as encoded stop-sign behavior. The company argues that this structure allows new capabilities to be validated separately over time, including additions of weather or road features to its operational design domain. It also uses simulation tools to iterate and test potential features. Aurora pointed to faster lane expansion, noting that a recent lane was opened in weeks rather than the years required for its first lane; it attributed this partly to Atlas-enabled mapping and partly to encountering fewer new or novel road features. The company reiterated that it expects to begin moving customers to Driver as a Service in 2027. Under this model, customers own the truck and pay Aurora a per-mile fee for the Aurora Driver. The transition is supported by a memorandum of understanding with Hirschbach for up to 500 customer-owned trucks to be delivered across 2027 and 2028, and management said DaaS can operate using upfit trucks. Aurora expects DaaS pricing of $0.85+ per mile, above the $0.65–$0.85 indicative range discussed at its 2024 investor day, and said this pricing provides significant value relative to human drivers. For Gen 3, Aumovio will finance the hardware while Aurora pays it a portion of the per-mile fee; Aurora will need to finance Gen 2 hardware used on DaaS trucks. Aurora had $1.2 billion of cash at the end of 2Q and reiterated its expectation of reaching free-cash-flow positive on a run-rate basis in 2028. Goldman Sachs’ valuation applies a 90% weight to a $6 base case using a 9x multiple on EV/2030E revenue discounted back, a 5% weight to a $16 bull case using a 12x multiple on revenue twice the base case, and a 5% weight to a $2 bear case using a 7x multiple on revenue at half the base case. This probability-weighted framework supports the firm’s Neutral rating and $6 12-month target.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs summarizes management’s conference comments across truck deployment, hardware cost reduction, supply-chain readiness, technology validation, route expansion and the planned DaaS model. It then links the operating ramp and per-mile economics to Aurora’s cash-flow outlook and values the company through probability-weighted base, bull and bear EV/2030E revenue scenarios discounted back to the present.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methods

  Probability-weighted EV/2030E revenue multiple valuation

  Goldman Sachs applies different EV/revenue multiples to base, bull and bear 2030 revenue cases, discounts each valuation back, and weights the outcomes 90%, 5% and 5%, respectively.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Autonomous-truck deployment and supply-chain scaling

  The report assesses how hardware suppliers, vehicle upfitters, truck manufacturers and line-side integration affect Aurora’s ability to scale autonomous-truck operations.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Aurora Innovation Inc. (AUR)

  Primary covered autonomous-trucking company

  Strengths

  Recent driverless launch, planned fleet expansion, lower-cost Gen 2 hardware, expected further Gen 3 cost reduction, verifiable-AI approach and planned DaaS pricing of $0.85+ per mile.

  Weaknesses

  The company is expected to remain free-cash-flow negative until reaching run-rate positivity in 2028.

  Comparison

  DaaS pricing is described as providing significant value relative to human drivers; Gen 2 hardware is approximately 50% lower cost than Gen 1.

  Risks

  Volume ramp, supply-chain scaling, route expansion, DaaS transition, pricing and margin outcomes, BOM-cost reduction, competition and capital-raising costs.

Key data

• International trucks in operation by end-3Q20–25Management expectation for the recently launched driverless International fleet.
• International trucks exiting 2026~200Aurora reiterated this volume-ramp target.
• Potential fleet capacity in 2027Up to 1.5k trucksExpected before Gen 3 hardware launches with Aumovio.
• Gen 2 hardware cost reduction~50%Lower cost versus Gen 1 hardware.
• Volvo Aurora-powered AV trucksStarting in 1Q27; 300 trucks by end-2027Volvo’s stated operating and deployment expectations.
• DaaS pricing$0.85+ per mileAbove Aurora’s prior $0.65–$0.85 indicative range discussed at its 2024 investor day.
• Cash balance$1.2bnReported at the end of 2Q.
• Run-rate FCF-positive timing2028Aurora reiterated this expectation.
• Goldman Sachs price target$612-month target based on weighted valuation scenarios.

Impact & implications

The report frames Aurora’s investment case around execution of the fleet ramp, lower-cost hardware, broader route deployment and conversion to a per-mile DaaS model. Its valuation outcome depends heavily on whether these milestones support the base-case 2030 revenue outlook and the expected path to 2028 run-rate positive free cash flow.

Risks

• A faster or slower autonomous-vehicle volume ramp could affect Aurora’s ability to scale supply-chain partners, shift to as-a-service and expand routes.
• Pricing and margin outcomes could differ based on BOM-cost reduction and the degree of competition.
• The cost of raising capital is a key risk to the view.