Goldman Sachs sees resilient entertainment demand, premiumization and monetization opportunities across its conference coverage

Overview

This conference-takeaways report covers Goldman Sachs’ US entertainment universe. Its central conclusion is that management teams delivered a broadly positive message on consumer demand, premiumization, pricing, advertising durability and new monetization initiatives, while the institution maintained existing ratings and price targets.

Core views

Goldman Sachs found that live-event demand remained healthy despite macro uncertainty. Live Nation reported more than 155M tickets sold year-to-date, up 12% year-on-year, and activity across amphitheaters, arenas and stadiums pacing up at least mid-teens percentages globally. TKO said live events were ahead of internal forecasts, supported by premium demand and pricing power, while StubHub cited the World Cup as evidence that consumers continue to prioritize experiences over goods. The report links this demand backdrop to further capacity additions, international expansion and higher-value offerings. Premiumization was a recurring growth mechanism. Live Nation cited premium seating, hospitality and venue investments as drivers of higher per-cap spending; amphitheater per-cap spending has risen from about $16 a decade ago to roughly $47-$48. TKO highlighted On Location hospitality demand around the World Cup, Milan Olympics and LA Olympics, while IMAX said successful premium films such as The Odyssey support utilization, exhibitor interest, network expansion and long-term pricing power. For TKO, management announced a 1Q27 Investor Day that could include an upward revision to the more-than-$1.2B 2030 global-partnerships target. It expects WWE partnership growth above 20% in 2026, versus approximately mid-single-digit growth in 1H26. TKO reiterated a 39.6% 2026 midpoint EBITDA-margin outlook, up 600 basis points year-on-year, leverage below 2x by year-end and normalized FCF conversion above 60%. International media-rights renewals across China, Korea, France, Japan and Canada achieved average step-ups of about 1.7x prior values. Management emphasized dividends and repurchases over transformational M&A. Live Nation described a long international runway: the US represents about 5% of the global population but approximately half of its business; Latin American activity is around one-tenth of US levels, Japan is about 40% of US activity per capita, and Western Europe could support another roughly 25% of growth. It expects new and acquired venues to contribute meaningfully to fan growth in 2027. Ticketmaster’s base case remains mid-single-digit AOI growth, with potential upside from better business-to-business and consumer products, including AI-driven discovery and recommendations. Regulatory proceedings remain a material uncertainty. IMAX reiterated confidence in its $1.4B 2026 global box-office target. Management expects FY2026 EBITDA margins in the mid-40% range, with a 45% floor, versus 42.6% in 1H26, and reaffirmed more than 50% FCF conversion. Once quarterly IMAX box office exceeds about $250M, management says roughly 85% of incremental revenue reaches the bottom line. The company sees a global addressable market of about 4,500 screens versus roughly 1,800 currently in its network. StubHub raised full-year revenue-growth guidance to 10%-12% year-on-year from 8%-10% after World Cup performance reached the high end of expectations; EBITDA guidance was maintained because of tournament servicing costs and gross-margin effects. Management reported about 800 basis points of sales-and-marketing leverage in 2Q26. It views AI discovery and agentic commerce as additive channels and potential cost-efficiency tools, while considering its exposure to resale price-cap regulation limited because professional resellers of high-end concert inventory represent about 10% of GMS. iHeartMedia reiterated FY2026 guidance for $800M of adjusted EBITDA and $200M of FCF. Management expects a strong political-advertising cycle, potentially closer to a presidential-election year despite a midterm cycle, and is expanding programmatic radio buying through AudioGraph. It expects broad availability across major demand-side platforms by year-end or early next year, with 2027 the first full rollout year. FCF remains the priority given debt maturities due over the next roughly 18 months. Spotify emphasized its ability to raise prices with limited churn, supported by a broader offering spanning music, podcasts, audiobooks, video and personalization. Add-ons, including audiobooks and potential AI features, are intended to raise ARPU and help offset AI inference costs. Its AI remix and cover tool uses an artist opt-in approach with licensed content and royalties paid to participating artists. Spotify continues to target 1B MAUs by 2030, led by emerging markets, while noting that songs with accompanying videos are approximately 24% more likely to be streamed or saved. SiriusXM expects annual pricing actions to become more regular, paired with added consumer value and broader packaging such as Play and Sports Pass. It sees the YouTube advertising partnership becoming meaningful to reported results by 2H27, although its contribution this year should be small. Management forecast approximately $1.375B of FCF in 2026 and $1.5B in 2027 as satellite capex approaches zero by 2028. It is evaluating sales, leases, joint ventures or broader commercialization for its spectrum portfolio, prioritizing value maximization. Webtoon reiterated confidence in double-digit growth exiting 2026. Paid content accounts for around 79% of its $1.4B revenue base, while Korea grew about 20% in constant currency in 2Q26 despite high penetration. The company sees underpenetrated markets, IP adaptations, games and advertising as additional growth levers. It has established a $100M IP-adaptation fund with NAVER, to which Webtoon contributes 40%, and acquired an initial 20% stake in RI Games Holding with options for further ownership. Advertising is about 11% of revenue and remains an execution opportunity rather than a fully realized contributor.

Analysis framework

The report synthesizes management presentations and meetings company by company, then connects recurring themes across demand, pricing, premiumization, international expansion, advertising, AI and capital allocation. It supplements management commentary with operating metrics, guidance, stated valuation approaches and company-specific risks.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Live-event demand, venue supply and premium capacity analysis

  The report evaluates ticket demand, venue availability, international infrastructure gaps and premium offerings to explain potential volume, pricing and monetization growth.

• Valuation methodsSOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) Valuation

  iHeartMedia and SiriusXM sum-of-the-parts valuation

  The report values distinct operating segments separately and, for SiriusXM, adds probability-weighted spectrum optionality.

• Valuation methodsDCF (Discounted Cash Flow)

  Discounted-cash-flow valuation

  Several company price targets use DCF estimates with stated WACC and terminal-growth or terminal-multiple assumptions alongside market-multiple methods.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• TKO Group Holdings (TKO)

  Live-event, media-rights and sponsorship growth exposure

  Strengths

  Premium demand, media-rights renewals, partnership momentum and capital returns.

  Risks

  Popularity, rights-renewal, sponsorship-execution, competition and macro risks.

• Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)

  Live-event demand, venue expansion and Ticketmaster growth

  Strengths

  Ticket demand, international white space, premiumization and venue strategy.

  Weaknesses

  Regulatory uncertainty.

  Risks

  Weaker consumer spending, changing out-of-home preferences, talent competition and higher rates.

• IMAX Corp (IMAX)

  Premium theatrical exhibition and network expansion

  Strengths

  Box-office momentum, operating leverage and screen-expansion potential.

  Weaknesses

  Dependence on film slate and exhibitor investment.

  Risks

  Global box-office weakness, China policy, fewer tentpole films and consumer-health pressure.

• StubHub Holdings (STUB)

  Secondary-ticketing and AI-discovery exposure

  Strengths

  World Cup demand, brand, inventory liquidity and operating leverage.

  Weaknesses

  Event servicing costs and regulatory exposure.

  Risks

  Slower industry growth, competition, regulation, rates, capital structure and macro conditions.

• Spotify Technology (SPOT)

  Streaming pricing, add-ons, AI and emerging-market growth

  Strengths

  Limited reported churn after pricing actions, product breadth and user-growth runway.

  Weaknesses

  Advertising and investment execution requirements.

  Risks

  Competition, higher churn, weaker advertising execution, margin pressure and increased investment.

• Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI)

  Subscription pricing, advertising and spectrum optionality

  Strengths

  Low churn, ARPU growth, declining capex and spectrum alternatives.

  Weaknesses

  Competitive premium-audio environment.

  Risks

  Lower pricing power, higher rates and execution around spectrum monetization.

• Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN)

  Paid content, IP adaptation, gaming and advertising monetization

  Strengths

  Underpenetrated markets, creator ecosystem and IP expansion.

  Weaknesses

  Advertising rollout has taken longer than expected.

  Risks

  User engagement, advertising and IP-execution outcomes, creator competition, NAVER and LY dependence, and macro conditions.

• iHeartMedia (IHRT)

  Audio advertising, programmatic monetization and deleveraging

  Strengths

  Political-advertising opportunity and programmatic rollout.

  Weaknesses

  Debt maturities and sensitivity to advertising conditions.

  Risks

  The report identifies upside risks rather than explicit downside risks in the valuation section.

Key data

• Live Nation tickets sold YTD155M++12% YoY; management is tracking toward approximately 175M for the full year.
• TKO 2026 EBITDA margin guidance39.6%Midpoint, up 600bps YoY.
• IMAX FY2026 EBITDA margin guidanceMid-40%, floor of 45%Versus 42.6% in 1H26.
• StubHub FY revenue growth guidance10%-12% YoYRaised from 8%-10% after World Cup performance.
• iHeartMedia FY2026 guidance$800M adjusted EBITDA; $200M FCFReiterated.
• SiriusXM FCF forecast~$1.375B in 2026; ~$1.5B in 2027Supported by declining satellite capex.
• Webtoon paid-content share~79% of $1.4B revenue baseManagement cited this as support for the durability of its model.

Impact & implications

The report argues that entertainment companies can pursue growth through durable experiential demand, premium offerings, international capacity, pricing and product segmentation. AI is presented primarily as an enabler of discovery, personalization, monetization and operating efficiency, while regulation, consumer conditions, competition and execution remain important constraints for selected companies.

Risks

• Live Nation faces risks from weaker consumer spending, changing preferences for out-of-home entertainment, talent competition and higher interest rates.
• IMAX faces risks from weaker global box office, an inconsistent tentpole-film slate, slower screen additions, China policy changes and consumer-health pressure.
• StubHub faces slower industry growth, competition, execution, regulation, interest-rate and capital-structure risk, ownership concentration and macroeconomic weakness.
• Spotify faces competition, price-increase-driven churn, advertising-execution risk, gross-margin pressure and potentially higher platform or sales-and-marketing investment.
• SiriusXM faces competition for premium audio content, lower-than-expected pricing power and higher interest rates.
• TKO faces popularity, media-rights, competition, synergy, sponsorship-execution, macroeconomic, interest-rate and stakeholder-sale risks.
• Webtoon faces user-retention, advertising and IP-monetization, creator-competition, NAVER/LY dependence and macroeconomic risks.

What to watch

• TKO’s 1Q27 Investor Day, potential revision to its 2030 partnerships target and 2026 WWE partnerships growth.
• Live Nation’s 2027 venue contribution, Ticketmaster product progress and regulatory proceedings.
• IMAX box-office trends, screen-development discussions and delivery against FY2026 margin and FCF guidance.
• StubHub’s revenue-growth delivery, AI discovery adoption and ticket-resale legislation.
• iHeartMedia’s political-advertising cycle, programmatic rollout and debt-maturity management.
• Spotify’s AI remix rollout, pricing and churn, add-on monetization and emerging-market MAU growth.
• SiriusXM’s YouTube partnership monetization, spectrum strategy, annual pricing actions and FCF progression.
• Webtoon’s Japan recovery, advertising scaling, Disney partnership, IP-adaptation fund and gaming execution.