Conference Day 2 points to convergence, AI infrastructure and live sports as growth supports amid intense broadband competition

Overview

This conference-takeaways report covers management commentary from telecom, cable, tower and media companies at Goldman Sachs' Communacopia + Technology Conference. Its central message is that competitive pressure in broadband is immediate, but convergence, network investment, AI-related connectivity demand, cost discipline and sports-led media monetization may support longer-term growth.

Core views

Broadband competition and convergence were the main telecom themes. Comcast described fiber as its primary long-term competitor as fiber overbuild activity has accelerated to 4–5% annually from 2–3% previously, with aggressive 1Gbps fiber offers of roughly $30–40 despite an estimated $1,500–$2,000 cost per home passed. Comcast expects 3Q26E broadband net losses to worsen year over year; Goldman Sachs/Visible Alpha consensus data show -87k/-90k versus -91k a year earlier. Management nevertheless expects subscriber losses to improve year over year in 2026, and expects modest improvement in EBITDA, broadband ARPU and convergence ARPA beginning in 3Q26E. The company is pursuing a cost program expected to generate billions of dollars of savings through technology transformation and simpler organization, while Orlando theme-park softness that began in June has persisted into 3Q26E. Verizon and AT&T highlighted customer-oriented convergence strategies. Verizon expects 2026E postpaid phone net additions at the top end of its 750k–1 million guidance, supported by new plans, loyalty efforts and mobile-home broadband bundles. Management expects better churn and retention/acquisition costs, positive postpaid account net additions in 3Q26, and higher ARPA in 2027 and potentially 4Q26; 50% of Verizon One customers choose 1Gbps or faster service. Verizon also sees AI-related opportunity in data-center interconnection and edge computing: its Corning agreement covers more than 80 million miles of high-density optical fiber and connectivity solutions from 2027 to 2032, while a $1 billion Google deal supports hyperscaler long-haul fiber builds. AT&T similarly argues that fiber-led convergence can improve household revenue, margins and churn despite near-term ARPU pressure, and reported 2% year-over-year growth in business advanced-connectivity service revenue in 2Q26. It is selectively building data-center interconnection routes and views its acquired 600MHz spectrum as supporting stronger uplink traffic and uses such as robotics and upstream video processing. Tower companies described carrier densification, future spectrum auctions, 6G and AI-driven uplink traffic as multi-year demand drivers. Crown Castle expects $60–70 million of 2026 core leasing activity revenue and 200 basis points of margin expansion from revenue, ground-lease buyouts, faster cycle times and AI automation. It estimates that Upper C-Band spectrum auctioned in April 2027 could take about two years to deploy, while higher-frequency spectrum requires denser macro and small-cell networks. American Tower expects 200–300 basis points of margin improvement over the next several years and cited roughly 4.5% organic tenant-billings growth in a normal leasing environment, including about 2.5% from new leases and amendments. Its CoreSite business is benefiting from enterprise interconnection demand and AI-inference workloads, producing its largest construction pipeline to date. SBA Communications sees spectrum deployment potentially beginning in 2028 after the Upper C-Band auction, and believes smaller edge facilities can address power-procurement and community-opposition constraints affecting larger data centers. Charter's management emphasized execution, the completed Cox Communications acquisition and a potential free-cash-flow inflection. It expects transaction operating-expense synergies above $1 billion, while viewing low mobile penetration in the former Cox footprint versus roughly 20% in the legacy Spectrum footprint as a wireless-attachment opportunity. Management remains constructive on long-term growth from wireless penetration, speed upgrades, customer retention, reduced capex and enterprise connectivity, but acknowledges intense fiber, fixed-wireless and satellite competition. In media, Disney described a broader Disney+ ecosystem intended to increase engagement and reduce churn, including new video, merchandise and interactive features beginning in spring 2027, a FAST channel, and targeted international content spending. Disney reported a 13% SVOD margin in F3Q26, reiterated 12% underlying EPS growth for the current year and double-digit underlying growth in fiscal 2027, and said US SVOD advertising pricing softness should persist into F4Q26 despite strong live-sports demand. Parks growth is expected to combine capacity additions with yield and per-capita spending supported by value-added offerings. Fox reported Tubi revenue growth of 35% in F4Q26, with F1Q27 pacing similarly, and reiterated a 20–25% long-term EBITDA-margin target. It expects a record midterm political advertising cycle, citing an expected $11.5–$11.6 billion in spending, while FOX One is tracking above initial expectations with 97% of acquisitions coming from outside pay TV and minimal traditional-TV cannibalization. Goldman Sachs retains differing company-specific views: Buy ratings on Verizon, AT&T, American Tower and Disney; Neutral ratings on Comcast, Crown Castle and SBA Communications; a Sell rating on Charter; and Not Rated on Fox. The valuation approaches are company specific, ranging from segment-based sum-of-the-parts analysis for Comcast and Disney to EV/EBITDA and Price/AFFO multiples for telecom and tower companies.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs organizes management comments by sector and company, connecting near-term operating indicators—subscriber trends, churn, leasing activity, margins and advertising—with longer-term drivers such as convergence, spectrum deployment, AI traffic, edge infrastructure and capital allocation. It applies company-specific valuation frameworks, including segment-level sum-of-the-parts analysis and forward valuation multiples.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsSOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) Valuation

  Sum-of-the-parts valuation

  Goldman Sachs values Comcast and Disney by assigning separate forward EBITDA or enterprise-value assumptions to their operating segments, then combining those segment values into a target price.

• Valuation methodsEV/EBITDA valuation

  Forward EV/EBITDA valuation

  The report uses next-twelve-month-plus-one-year EV/EBITDA multiples for Verizon, AT&T and Charter, and as part of SBA Communications' M&A valuation.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Network-investment transmission

  The report links AI workloads, uplink traffic and spectrum availability to carrier network investment, densification, fiber deployment, data-center interconnection and tower leasing.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)

  Covered cable, connectivity and media company facing fiber competition while pursuing cost transformation.

  Strengths

  Expected 2026 year-over-year improvement in broadband subscriber losses; billions of dollars of targeted cost savings; investment in wireless and edge compute.

  Weaknesses

  3Q26E broadband losses are expected to worsen year over year and Orlando theme-park softness persisted into 3Q26E.

  Comparison

  Management identifies fiber as its principal long-term competitor; fixed wireless is estimated to gain roughly 1 million subscribers per quarter.

  Risks

  Intensified FWA and FTTH competition, programming costs, economic weakness, higher interest rates and unfavorable FX.

• Verizon Communications (VZ)

  Covered wireless and broadband operator benefiting from customer initiatives and AI-related connectivity demand.

  Strengths

  Expected postpaid additions at the high end of guidance, improving churn economics and data-center interconnection opportunity.

  Comparison

  Management believes fiber is the preferred broadband technology, although it expects to continue taking broadband share.

  Risks

  Wireless and broadband competition, limited spectrum availability, faster wireline deterioration and Frontier integration difficulties.

• Crown Castle (CCI)

  Covered US tower operator positioned for densification, spectrum and edge-computing opportunities.

  Strengths

  Expected margin expansion, concentration in top 100 markets and more than 100 edge-data-center trial sites.

  Weaknesses

  Edge data-center footprint remains small and is in early trials.

  Comparison

  Management sees satellite more as an opportunity than a threat because femtocells have limited coverage.

  Risks

  Carrier spending constraints, slower data-demand growth, elevated rates and failure to achieve expected cost reductions.

• AT&T (T)

  Covered fiber-led convergence and connectivity provider.

  Strengths

  Convergence is associated with higher household revenue, improved margins and lower churn; business connectivity revenue grew 2% year over year in 2Q26.

  Weaknesses

  Near-term ARPU pressure from convergence.

  Comparison

  Management sees integrated fiber and wireless products as a longer-term advantage beyond discounting.

  Risks

  New-fiber competition, consumer wireless competition, limited spectrum availability and more rapid business-wireline deterioration.

• American Tower Corp. (AMT)

  Covered tower and data-center operator exposed to densification, spectrum and AI inference demand.

  Strengths

  CoreSite has its largest construction pipeline, supported by interconnection and AI-inference demand; management targets 200–300 basis points of margin improvement.

  Weaknesses

  Management says it is too early to forecast 2027 growth and attractive US data-center expansion sites are limited.

  Comparison

  CoreSite is positioned around enterprise multi-cloud connectivity and is not overly dependent on a single customer or segment.

  Risks

  Carrier spending pressure, international carrier consolidation, higher rates and emerging-market FX movements.

• Charter Communications (CHTR)

  Covered cable operator focused on execution, Cox integration and wireless penetration.

  Strengths

  Expected Cox synergies above $1 billion and potential growth from low mobile penetration in the former Cox footprint.

  Weaknesses

  Broadband competition remains elevated across fiber, fixed wireless and satellite.

  Comparison

  Former Cox mobile penetration is minimal versus roughly 20% in Charter's legacy Spectrum footprint.

  Risks

  Competitive intensity and slower-than-expected broadband subscriber trends.

• SBA Communications (SBAC)

  Covered tower company with spectrum, edge-data-center and capital-allocation themes.

  Strengths

  Potential leasing demand from spectrum deployment and distributed edge facilities; management sees repurchases as attractive relative to private asset valuations.

  Weaknesses

  International churn is expected to remain elevated at similar levels through 2027.

  Comparison

  Management sees distributed edge facilities as a potential response to the power constraints faced by large data-center projects.

  Risks

  Carrier consolidation, delayed network activity, international acquisition competition, early site churn and elevated borrowing costs.

• Walt Disney Co. (DIS)

  Covered media and entertainment company pursuing streaming ecosystem expansion and capacity-led experiences growth.

  Strengths

  13% F3Q26 SVOD margin, international streaming initiatives, sports-rights visibility and reiterated double-digit earnings growth outlook.

  Weaknesses

  US SVOD advertising pricing softness is expected through F4Q26.

  Comparison

  Disney states that international SVOD penetration lags the industry leader, creating a growth opportunity.

  Risks

  Cord-cutting, sports-rights inflation, streaming competition, weaker consumer spending, theatrical weakness, regulatory changes, rates and FX.

• Fox Corp. (FOXA)

  Covered conference participant, but Not Rated by Goldman Sachs.

  Strengths

  Tubi growth, live-sports advertising demand, sports-rights portfolio and limited FOX One pay-TV cannibalization.

  Comparison

  97% of FOX One acquisitions are from non-pay-TV subscribers.

Key data

• Comcast 3Q26E broadband net additionsGS/Visible Alpha consensus: -87k/-90k versus -91k year agoManagement expects year-over-year deterioration in 3Q26E, although 2026 subscriber losses should improve year over year.
• Verizon 2026E postpaid phone net additionsTop end of 750k–1 million guidanceManagement attributes confidence to new plans, loyalty initiatives and convergence.
• Verizon One customer speed selection50%Share choosing 1Gbps or higher speeds.
• Crown Castle core leasing activity revenue guidance$60–70 millionReiterated 2026 guidance.
• American Tower normal organic tenant-billings growth referenceApproximately 4.5%Approximately 2.5% is attributed to new leases and amendments.
• Charter transaction synergiesMore than $1 billionExpected operating-expense synergies from the Cox Communications acquisition.
• Disney SVOD margin13% in F3Q26Management characterized this as a double-digit margin.
• Fox Tubi revenue growth35% in F4Q26F1Q27 was pacing at a similar rate; long-term EBITDA-margin target is 20–25%.

Impact & implications

The report portrays a sector balancing near-term broadband and advertising pressure against longer-term structural opportunities. Converged offerings may improve customer economics for telecom providers; AI-related traffic and data-center demand may broaden infrastructure monetization; and live sports, streaming ecosystem development and capacity investment may support media earnings initiatives.

Risks

• Broadband competition from fiber, fixed wireless, cable and satellite could pressure subscriber growth, pricing, revenue and margins.
• Carrier spending constraints, delayed spectrum deployment or slower data-traffic growth could reduce tower leasing activity.
• Higher interest rates may pressure leveraged infrastructure and REIT valuations and raise borrowing costs.
• Streaming competition, cord-cutting, sports-rights cost inflation and weak advertising pricing could weigh on media results.
• Economic weakness, regulatory or policy changes and foreign-exchange movements are cited risks for several covered companies.

What to watch

• Comcast's 3Q26 broadband net additions, ARPU and details of its new cost-transformation program.
• Verizon's delivery against postpaid phone net-add guidance, churn improvement and monetization of central-office and fiber assets.
• The April 2027 Upper C-Band auction and the pace of subsequent spectrum deployment, densification and 6G preparation.
• Tower-company leasing activity, margin-expansion delivery, edge-data-center trials and AI-related traffic demand.
• Charter's Cox synergy realization, broadband execution and free-cash-flow inflection.
• Disney's spring-2027 Disney+ features, international content initiatives, SVOD advertising pricing and parks capacity investments.
• Tubi's growth trajectory, FOX One subscriber acquisition and the expected midterm political advertising cycle.