Goldman Sachs sees Figure’s capital-light marketplace transition supporting growth and margin expansion

Overview

This conference takeaway summarizes Figure Technology Solutions’ strategy to evolve from a leading HELOC originator into a capital-light capital-markets platform and real-world-asset tokenization participant. Goldman Sachs’ Buy view rests on marketplace volume growth, partner adoption, diversification into new asset classes, and the improving margin mix associated with Figure Connect.

Core views

Management described Figure as moving beyond its origins as a first-mover HELOC originator toward a differentiated capital-markets platform and a leader in real-world asset tokenization. Its central operating KPI is consumer-loan marketplace volume. The two near-term priorities are continued share gains in core mortgages through greater partner adoption, and capital-light diversification into other asset classes through Democratized Prime financing and Figure Connect distribution. Figure Connect already represents 65% of loan volume, and management expects that proportion to rise as asset classes available only within Connect are added. The company argued that its competitive position comes from its early role in tokenized HELOCs and broader RWA markets, the flexibility of its exchange-based model across capital-markets offerings, and a volume flywheel. Management said investors prefer buying assets in bulk, while repeated securitizations lower funding costs. Partner expansion has been broad-based across mortgage banks, servicers and increasingly depositories. Recent volume growth was driven 60% by new-partner additions and 40% by wallet-share gains; cross-sell potential remains significant because Figure is still below 10% penetration across most partners’ businesses. More partners are onboarding directly to Figure Connect, supported by stronger partner economics. First-lien HELOCs are presented as a major extension of the addressable market beyond second-lien HELOCs. Platform first-lien volume grew 3x year-on-year in 2Q26. Management linked that growth to lower partner origination costs: historically, producing a roughly $200,000 first-lien loan could cost close to $12,000, or about 6%, exceeding the 5% regulatory fee cap, whereas Figure’s cost is under $1,000. The lower cost improves partner economics, particularly for smaller-balance first-lien loans that otherwise relied more heavily on gain-on-sale economics. The recently closed Kiavi acquisition is intended to extend capital-light diversification. Management highlighted Kiavi’s appraisal technology, which it says supports 100%+ loan-to-value residential-transition loans by incorporating estimated post-construction home values. This can allow customers that have reached LTV limits to borrow incrementally. Sixth Street is expected to perform most post-close origination, placing incremental volume within the balance-sheet-light Figure Connect channel. Separately, Figure expects the first Agora auto-loan securitization in 4Q26; management views it as a proof point that could lower incremental funding costs. Management views take rate as an output rather than the primary objective, focusing instead on volume and contribution margin. Recent take-rate declines were attributed to a mix shift toward Figure Connect, which has the lowest take rate of the three HELOC channels but the highest contribution margin; lower ecosystem and technology fees as partners reach volume-based pricing tiers; and a larger first-lien HELOC mix, where larger average loan sizes and ecosystem-fee discounts lower the rate. Management said contractual minimum fee rates remain incrementally margin-accretive. As Figure Connect grows, management expects the company’s economics to resemble an exchange more than an originator and reiterated its medium-term pro forma adjusted EBITDA margin target of 60%. Goldman Sachs remains Buy-rated with a 12-month $48 price target, based on 24.0x its Q5–Q8 EPS. The report lists a $36.57 price as of the 10 September 2026 close and 31.3% upside. Key downside risks identified are reliance on the HELOC product, lower interest rates reducing HELOC demand, credit or funding stress from economic deterioration, and weaker private-credit purchaser demand.

Analysis framework

The report synthesizes management commentary from the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference, evaluating Figure’s marketplace strategy, partner and product expansion, funding and securitization economics, and the margin effects of a shift toward Figure Connect. Goldman Sachs then applies an earnings multiple of 24.0x Q5–Q8 EPS to derive its 12-month price target.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  Price-to-earnings valuation

  Goldman Sachs bases its $48 target price on 24.0x its Q5–Q8 EPS, using an earnings multiple to value the shares.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Origination, distribution, securitization and funding-cost transmission

  The report links lower origination costs, partner adoption, bulk investor purchases and repeat securitization to loan volumes, partner economics, contribution margins and funding costs.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Figure Technology Solutions Inc. (FIGR)

  Primary covered company; Goldman Sachs views its capital-light marketplace expansion and RWA-tokenization position as key supports for growth and margin improvement.

  Strengths

  First-mover position in tokenized HELOCs and RWA, exchange-model flexibility, partner growth, lower origination costs, Figure Connect’s higher contribution margin.

  Weaknesses

  Take rate has declined as channel and product mix shifts toward Figure Connect and first-lien HELOCs.

  Comparison

  Management expects the business mix to make Figure’s margin profile more like an exchange than an originator.

  Risks

  Reliance on HELOCs, lower-rate-driven demand weakness, economic deterioration affecting credit or funding, and reduced private-credit buyer demand.

Key data

• Figure Connect share of loan volume65%Current share; management expects it to continue rising.
• First-lien HELOC volume growth3x YoY in 2Q26Attributed to more attractive partner origination economics.
• Recent volume-growth mix60% new partners / 40% wallet-share gainsManagement’s attribution of recent growth.
• First-lien origination costUnder $1,000Compared with historical costs approaching $12,000 on a roughly $200,000 loan.
• Medium-term pro forma adjusted EBITDA margin target60%Reiterated by management.
• 12-month price target$48Based on 24.0x Goldman Sachs’ Q5–Q8 EPS.
• Expected upside31.3%Using the reported $36.57 price as of 10 September 2026 close.

Impact & implications

The report argues that Figure’s growth opportunity depends on expanding partner adoption and moving more volume into Figure Connect, where lower take rates are offset by higher contribution margins. Kiavi and Agora are positioned as evidence that the platform can extend beyond traditional HELOCs while remaining capital-light.

Risks

• Figure remains reliant on the HELOC product.
• Lower interest rates could reduce HELOC demand.
• Economic deterioration could create credit and funding risk.
• Demand from private-credit purchasers could decline.

What to watch

• The share of loan volume routed through Figure Connect, currently 65%.
• Partner additions, wallet-share gains and adoption of Figure Connect.
• Sustained first-lien HELOC volume growth and associated origination-cost advantages.
• The first Agora auto-loan securitization expected in 4Q26 and its effect on incremental funding costs.
• Progress toward the medium-term 60% pro forma adjusted EBITDA margin target.