Global commodity futures markets: Energy-driven flows lift global commodity open interest to a record, while positioning and momentum signals become more uneven

Overview

This weekly positioning and flows report tracks estimated futures open interest, investor positioning and momentum across global commodity markets. Its central finding is that energy-market strength drove record aggregate open interest, although falling net length in crude and stretched momentum readings introduce a more cautious near-term trading backdrop.

Core views

JPMorgan estimates that the value of open interest across tracked commodity markets rose 3% week on week, or $57 billion, to $2.1 trillion in the week ending 11 September—its highest reading since the firm began tracking the data in 2012. The increase reflected both higher prices and $12 billion of contract-based inflows across commodity sectors, concentrated mainly in energy. In contrast, aggregate net investor positioning declined 2.5% week on week, or $7 billion, to $273 billion, indicating that record open interest did not translate into a broad increase in directional investor length. Energy was the dominant source of the open-interest expansion. Estimated energy-market open interest increased 7% week on week, or $64 billion, to $975 billion, as Brent rose 9%, WTI 10% and TTF 10.5%, alongside $8.6 billion of net contract-based inflows across trader types. Yet energy net length declined $8.6 billion, led by a $12.8 billion reduction in Dubai crude length; increases in ICE Gasoil, ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI of $1.6 billion, $1 billion and $1 billion respectively only partly offset that reduction. On crude, the report argues that the prolonged US-Iran conflict has left the forward curve potentially mispriced. Over the next 16 months, it estimates that prices are about $6 too high at the front of the curve and $10 too low at the back. It identifies rerouted and fungible oil flows, slower-than-expected inventory draws, and demand weakness amid stronger non-Middle East supply and a pre-war surplus as forces preventing a major price spike. Consequently, even a prolonged conflict could still result in only moderate average Brent prices. Natural-gas open interest rose 9% week on week to $252 billion, aided by higher European and Asian benchmark prices and $4.5 billion of net inflows. JPMorgan says Middle East escalation and the Strait of Hormuz re-closure have delayed Qatar's LNG restart into winter, lifting TTF above expectations and increasing the risk of winter volatility as Europe enters the season with record-low storage. Under normal weather conditions, it considers EUR70–80/MWh sufficient to attract marginal LNG cargoes and encourage gas-to-coal switching, supporting its revised 4Q26 TTF forecast of EUR75/MWh. Rising LNG supply and a potential Qatar return are expected to ease balances in 2027 and bring prices closer to EUR40/MWh by summer. Outside energy, estimated open interest in precious metals declined 1% week on week, or $3.6 billion, to $305 billion for a third consecutive weekly fall, despite nearly $3 billion of net inflows led by $2.2 billion into gold and $1 billion into silver. Base-metals open interest also fell 1%, or $3.5 billion, to $241 billion, with $0.4 billion of outflows led by LME copper and zinc. Copper reversed after reaching a record $14,800/mt; the report says tariff discussion unsettled a long market but does not materially alter its view that the US will eventually pursue a phased, escalating tariff on refined copper cathode imports. It now sees a more delayed implementation after the November mid-term elections, giving copper more near-term room. Environmental-market open interest increased 4% week on week to $87 billion, supported by a 1.6% rise in EUA prices and $1.4 billion of inflows; investment funds increased their EUA net long position by 1,506 lots to 33,958 lots as of 4 September. Agricultural open interest was broadly unchanged at $433 billion: $2.9 billion of inflows into grains, oilseeds and softs were largely offset by $2 billion of livestock outflows and lower corn, coffee and cocoa prices. The report's momentum framework showed improving energy momentum but weaker momentum in metals and agriculture. Palladium and coffee short-term signals switched to sell. Meanwhile, short-term WTI and TTF signals and the long-term Brent signal crossed positive thresholds that the report associates with potential exhaustion of buying trends, raising the prospect of profit-taking or position exits among CTA and trend-following strategies.

Analysis framework

The report estimates futures open interest by multiplying outstanding contracts by contract size and the latest price, while weekly flows are calculated from weekly changes in outstanding contracts using the prior week's price. It combines exchange data, Bloomberg data and JPMorgan QDS positioning projections, then separates price-driven and contract-flow-driven changes across commodity sectors. It also applies short- and long-term momentum signals using z-scores, mean-reversion thresholds and filters designed to limit excessive trading.

Methodology notes

• Quantitative, Factor, and Portfolio Theory

  Commodity momentum and trend-following signal framework

  The report uses short- and long-term price-return z-scores to generate trading signals. Extreme momentum turns signals neutral to flag potential trend exhaustion, while a near-zero z-score filter seeks to avoid excessive trading.

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Crude oil and LNG supply-demand balance analysis

  The report explains oil and gas pricing through supply rerouting, inventories, demand conditions, LNG availability, storage and the timing of Qatar's LNG return.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Crude oil

  Energy-market open interest and flows were the main drivers of the broader commodity increase.

  Strengths

  Higher prices and energy-sector contract inflows supported open interest.

  Weaknesses

  Net energy length fell sharply, led by Dubai crude.

  Comparison

  The report estimates the front of the crude curve is about $6 too high and the back about $10 too low over the next 16 months.

  Risks

  Rerouted flows, slower inventory draws, weak demand and stronger non-Middle East supply could limit price spikes despite a prolonged conflict.

• TTF natural gas

  European gas prices and open interest increased amid delayed Qatar LNG restart expectations.

  Strengths

  Middle East disruption and low European storage raise winter price-spike potential.

  Weaknesses

  Higher LNG supply and a potential Qatar return could ease balances in 2027.

  Comparison

  JPMorgan forecasts EUR75/MWh for 4Q26 under normal weather conditions and prices closer to EUR40/MWh by summer 2027.

  Risks

  Prices remain highly sensitive to weather forecasts and supply disruptions.

• Copper

  Copper was a major contributor to base-metals outflows and a focus of tariff-related market volatility.

  Strengths

  A potentially delayed refined-copper tariff implementation could provide more near-term room.

  Weaknesses

  The market was long and reversed sharply after reaching $14,800/mt.

  Comparison

  The report still expects an eventual phased, escalating US tariff on refined copper cathode imports.

  Risks

  Policy uncertainty around the timing and form of tariffs may continue to unsettle positioning.

Key data

• Total commodity open interest$2.1 trillionUp 3% week on week, or $57 billion, in the week ending 11 September; highest since tracking began in 2012.
• Aggregate net investor positioning$273 billionDown 2.5% week on week, or $7 billion.
• Energy open interest$975 billionUp 7% week on week, or $64 billion.
• Natural gas open interest$252 billionUp 9% week on week.
• 4Q26 TTF forecastEUR75/MWhRevised forecast under normal weather conditions.
• Precious-metals open interest$305 billionDown 1% week on week, or $3.6 billion, for a third consecutive weekly decline.
• Base-metals open interest$241 billionDown 1% week on week, or $3.5 billion.

Impact & implications

The report portrays energy as the principal driver of commodity-market participation and pricing, but distinguishes that broad open-interest expansion from declining directional length in crude. It highlights winter European gas volatility, potential crude-curve dislocations and momentum conditions that may leave recent energy buying trends susceptible to profit-taking.

Risks

• European gas prices may experience winter spikes and elevated volatility because of weather sensitivity, supply disruptions, delayed Qatar LNG restart and record-low European storage.
• Crude-market outcomes remain uncertain because the US-Iran conflict could persist while demand, supply rerouting and inventory trends constrain price responses.
• Stretched positive momentum in WTI, Brent and TTF may trigger profit-taking or exits by trend-following investors.