Agricultural products and precious metals drag global commodity open interest lower for a third consecutive week

Overview

This is a J.P. Morgan global commodities research report focused on commodity market positioning, fund flows, and inventory changes. The report notes that as of June 5, 2026, the valuation of open interest in tracked global commodity markets fell 1% month over month to $1.8 trillion, marking a third consecutive weekly decline, mainly driven by price declines in agricultural products and precious metals such as gold and silver.

Core views

The report's core view is that commodity risk exposure is cooling at the aggregate level, but divergence across sectors is significant. Energy open interest valuation is broadly stable, while precious metals and agricultural products are under pressure, and base metals are relatively resilient. On the macro side, U.S. labor data reinforced the view that economic expansion is spreading into hiring, but sticky inflation and potential Fed rate hikes also increase downside risks for precious metals and other rate-sensitive assets.

Analysis framework

The report tracks commodity markets using multidimensional indicators including positioning valuation, net investor positioning, contract fund flows, price momentum z-scores, and inventory days. The analysis covers energy, precious metals, base metals, environmental markets, and agricultural products, while also incorporating macro and policy variables such as the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. copper tariff reviews, Fed rate expectations, and global inventory availability.

Methodology notes

• Positioning and fund flowsOpen Interest and Net Investor Positioning

  Uses open interest valuation, net longs, and contract fund flows to measure commodity risk exposure.

  The report aggregates open interest valuation across major global exchanges and sectors, and distinguishes the effects of price changes and contract fund flows on positioning valuation.

• Quantitative trading signalsPrice Momentum z-score and Trading Signals

  Uses price momentum z-scores to identify buy, sell, neutral, and trend-exhaustion signals.

  When momentum z-scores approach inflection points or extreme thresholds, trend-following or CTA models may adjust signals, thereby amplifying volatility or triggering profit-taking exits.

• Inventory monitoringGlobal Commodities Inventory Monitor (GCIM)

  Converts underlying commodity inventories into days of use and aggregates them by BCOM weights.

  GCIM provides both global and ex-China measures to observe whether tradable inventories are ample; the report also excludes the impact of seasonal U.S. natural gas inventories to assess a more stable inventory trend.

• Scenario analysisStrait of Hormuz Energy Scenario

  Assesses oil prices and LNG supply risks based on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

  The base case assumes the strait reopens in June and keeps Brent near $100 for the rest of the year; if the closure is prolonged, inventory drawdowns would significantly push up oil prices in 2026 and 4Q26.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Global commodities

  Aggregate risk exposure and liquidity tracking target

  Strengths

  Overall net investor positioning remains stable at $223 billion, with metals inflows supporting the aggregate.

  Weaknesses

  Open interest valuation has declined for three consecutive weeks, with most price momentum weakening.

  Comparison

  Agricultural products and precious metals are the main drags, while energy and base metals are relatively stable.

  Risks

  Macro interest-rate repricing, trend-following model deleveraging, declining liquidity, and intensified sector rotation.

• Energy, crude oil, and LNG

  Core vehicle for energy prices and geopolitical supply risk

  Strengths

  Energy open interest valuation is broadly flat, WTI and ICE Gas Oil prices rose during the week, and natural gas saw fund inflows.

  Weaknesses

  Energy net longs fell by $7.7 billion, and crude oil markets saw contract fund outflows of $10 billion.

  Comparison

  Natural gas open interest valuation rose, while the combined valuation of crude oil and refined products declined.

  Risks

  If the Strait of Hormuz does not fully reopen, inventory depletion and constrained LNG exports may continue to push energy prices higher.

• Precious metals, gold, and silver

  Rate-expectation, safe-haven-demand, and trend-positioning-sensitive assets

  Strengths

  The sector recorded net contract fund inflows of $5.4 billion, both gold and silver saw inflows, and COMEX Gold managed money net longs increased.

  Weaknesses

  Precious metals open interest valuation fell 3%; gold was dragged by forward-rate repricing and has fallen 18% since the Middle East conflict began.

  Comparison

  Precious metals net longs rose by $10.0 billion, but price declines outweighed the support from fund inflows for open interest valuation.

  Risks

  Strong labor data, sticky inflation, and a more hawkish Fed could lead to further downside.

• Base metals, copper, and nickel

  Mapping assets for the industrial cycle, trade policy, and arbitrage structure

  Strengths

  Base metals open interest valuation held at $239 billion, with net fund inflows of $2.0 billion.

  Weaknesses

  Copper faces uncertainty from the U.S. Section 232 tariff review and COMEX/LME arbitrage.

  Comparison

  Base metals are more resilient than agricultural products and precious metals, with inflows concentrated in nickel and copper.

  Risks

  U.S. import demand may squeeze ex-U.S. cathode copper supply, and tariff escalation could also alter inventory behavior.

• Agricultural products, grains/oilseeds, and softs

  Sector sensitive to price momentum and weather/supply-demand expectations

  Strengths

  Softs saw net fund inflows of $4.8 billion, offsetting part of the outflows.

  Weaknesses

  Agricultural open interest valuation fell to $382 billion, with declining grain and oilseed prices as the main drag.

  Comparison

  Outflows from grains/oilseeds and livestock were offset by inflows into softs, but the sector still dragged global open interest overall.

  Risks

  Long-term momentum signals in Kansas Wheat, CBOT Soybeans, and ICE Cotton have turned to sell, which may trigger further deleveraging by trend-following funds.

• Environmental markets and EUA

  Environmental assets driven by carbon prices and policy expectations

  Strengths

  EUA contract fund flows were positive, and investment funds' EUA net longs rose to 51.2k contracts.

  Weaknesses

  EUA prices fell 6% during the week, dragging environmental market open interest valuation down 4%.

  Comparison

  Environmental markets show a coexistence of price drag and fund inflows.

  Risks

  Carbon price volatility, changes in policy expectations, and crowded fund positioning may amplify drawdowns.

Key data

• Global open interest valuation$1.8 trillion, -1% or -$14 billion week over weekAs of June 5, 2026, down for a third consecutive week, mainly dragged by agricultural products and precious metals.
• Global net investor positioning$223 billion, broadly flat week over weekNet longs increased in precious metals and base metals, while net longs declined in energy and agricultural products.
• JPM QDS positioning forecastExpected to decline by a further nearly $15 billionMainly from agricultural products at about -$10 billion and precious metals at about -$3 billion.
• Energy open interest valuation$819 billion, broadly flat week over weekOutflows from crude oil markets were offset by refined products, natural gas, and price gains; energy net longs fell by $7.7 billion week over week.
• Crude oil and refined productsOpen interest valuation down $3 billion; crude contract fund outflows of $10 billionNYM WTI rose 4% week over week, and ICE Gas Oil rose 5% week over week.
• Natural gasOpen interest valuation +3% week over week to $6 billionTTF rose 4% week over week, with net inflows of $2.3 billion across all trader types.
• Brent scenarioBase case is close to $100/bbl for the rest of the yearIf the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, each additional month of closure would significantly lift oil prices in 2026 and 4Q26.
• Precious metals open interest valuation$257 billion, -3% or -$7.2 billion week over weekAlthough the sector saw net contract fund inflows of $5.4 billion, price declines still depressed open interest valuation.
• Gold and silver fund flowsGold net inflow of $2.4 billion, silver net inflow of $2.7 billionCOMEX Gold managed money net longs increased by 14.7k contracts to about 112k contracts.
• Base metals open interest valuation$239 billion, broadly flat week over weekThe sector saw net fund inflows of $2.0 billion, mainly concentrated in nickel at $1.2 billion and copper at $0.9 billion.
• Environmental markets$73 billion, -4% week over weekEUA prices fell 6% week over week, but contract fund flows recorded net inflows of $1.4 billion.
• Agricultural open interest valuation$382 billion, -3% week over weekThe decline was mainly driven by sharp falls in grain and oilseed prices; net inflows of $4.8 billion into softs offset outflows from grains/oilseeds and livestock.
• GCIM inventories69.4 days of use; 58.6 days of use ex-ChinaBroadly stable overall in May; improved U.S. natural gas availability was offset by lower availability of oil products and aluminum.
• GCIM excluding U.S. natural gas73.2 days of use globally; 64.7 days of use ex-ChinaAfter excluding the impact of seasonal natural gas inventories, inventory availability was also broadly stable.

Impact & implications

The decline in open interest suggests that commodity market risk exposure and liquidity are cooling, but this is not a full-scale retreat: metals still saw fund inflows, energy prices are supported by geopolitical and inventory constraints, while agricultural products and precious metals are more affected by price momentum and interest-rate repricing. For investors, the near-term focus should be on distinguishing between positioning valuation declines driven by prices and actual fund outflows, while closely watching the Fed path, the Strait of Hormuz, copper tariff policy, and tradable inventory conditions.

Risks

• If the Fed turns more hawkish due to strong employment and high inflation, gold and other rate-sensitive commodities may remain under pressure.
• If the Strait of Hormuz is delayed in fully reopening, crude inventory depletion and constrained LNG exports may push energy prices higher.
• The U.S. Section 232 copper tariff review may alter COMEX/LME arbitrage and U.S. inventory strategy, squeezing ex-U.S. cathode copper supply.
• Momentum signals in agricultural products and some metals are weakening, and trend-following funds may bring additional selling pressure and volatility.
• The continued decline in global open interest valuation may reflect weakening market liquidity and risk appetite.

What to watch

• Whether weekly global open interest valuation, net investor positioning, and JPM QDS's forecast for a further nearly $15 billion decline materialize.
• The actual reopening progress of the Strait of Hormuz, the number of LNG vessels transiting, and the recovery of upstream and liquefaction facilities.
• The impact of U.S. employment, inflation, and Fed rate expectations on precious metals prices.
• Whether COMEX managed money positioning in gold and silver, as well as precious metals fund flows, continue to see inflows.
• Updates from the U.S. Department of Commerce by June 30, 2026 regarding revisions to copper Section 232 tariffs.
• GCIM and ex-China inventory days, especially changes in oil products, aluminum, U.S. natural gas, and tradable inventories.
• Short-term and long-term momentum signals for Kansas Wheat, CBOT Soybeans, ICE Cotton, TTF, LME Nickel, and precious metals.