Commodity open interest has stabilized after six weeks of decline, while flows remain weighed down by crude oil

Overview

This is a JPMorgan global commodities research report tracking positioning, flows, and inventories. The core conclusion is that global commodity open-interest valuation has shown tentative stabilization after six consecutive weeks of decline, but net investor positioning is still falling, with a clearly bifurcated structure. Crude oil-related outflows remain the main drag, precious metals are supported by gold and silver additions, base metals are influenced by disinvestment in copper and aluminum, and agricultural positioning is broadly stable overall but with significant differences across individual commodities.

Core views

First, stabilization in open-interest valuation does not mean risk appetite has fully recovered, because total market flows under contract-level accounting are still net outflows and the outflows are concentrated in crude oil. Second, precious metals have shown relatively stronger positioning: COMEX Gold managed money net longs rose to 120,000 contracts, and rate-sensitive ETF flows have regained some pricing influence. Third, in energy markets, recovery of China’s crude demand and the pace of global inventory replenishment remain key watch points; the base case assumes China will eventually return to the market, with expected Chinese oil demand down by 600,000 barrels per day in 2026 and rebounding by 800,000 barrels per day in 2027. Fourth, inventory trends suggest global available inventories are lower, particularly for oil, copper, and aluminum, potentially reinforcing some supply-tightness narratives.

Analysis framework

The report uses global major-exchange commodity futures open interest, net investor positions, contract flow changes, price-contribution decomposition, inventory days, and momentum trading signals as its core framework, segmented by energy, environmental markets, metals, and agricultural markets, and combines these with JPM QDS forecasts for the latest positioning changes.

Methodology notes

• positioning_and_flowsopen_interest_value_and_contract_based_flows

  open-interest valuation and contract-based flows

  Open-interest valuation is calculated as the number of open contracts multiplied by contract size and the latest price. Weekly flows are measured by changes in open-contract counts multiplied by contract size and last week’s price, used to separate the impact of price moves from genuine contract additions or reductions.

• positioning_and_flowsnet_investor_positioning

  net investor positioning

  The report aggregates net investor positions in the global commodity futures market. U.S. exchange data combine Managed Money and Other Reportables, while European exchange data combine Investment Funds and Other Financial Firms.

• inventory_monitorglobal_commodities_inventory_monitor

  GCIM global commodity inventory monitoring

  GCIM measures global and China-excluded usable inventories in days of supply and includes an adjustment that strips out U.S. natural gas seasonality, to track global tradable-inventory pressure.

• technical_signalprice_momentum_z_score_signal

  price momentum z-score trading signal

  When momentum z-score approaches a regime switch point, trend-following models may flip buy/sell signals; at extreme momentum levels, the signal can turn neutral, leading to profit-taking or position exits.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Gold

  Flow support and rate-sensitive asset

  Strengths

  Net long positioning in precious metals rose, with gold providing the main incremental contribution. COMEX Gold managed money net longs rose to 120,000 contracts. JPM QDS expects further gold accumulation of about 6 billion dollars.

  Weaknesses

  Purchasing intensity has weakened in some other demand segments, and short-term baseline outlook is more range-bound.

  Comparison

  Compared with crude oil, base metals, and agriculture, gold is one of the strongest flow-positive names this week.

  Risks

  Higher real yields, slower ETF inflows, or a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy path could pressure gold.

• Crude oil

  Primary drag on energy flows

  Strengths

  If China resumes purchasing and global stock replenishment stabilizes, there is still a recovery backdrop.

  Weaknesses

  Contract-level crude flows show around 12 billion dollars of outflows, and ICE Brent net longs fell from 35 billion to 30 billion dollars. The return of stranded oil barrels could create temporary supply excess.

  Comparison

  Crude oil is the main source of net position declines and stands in contrast to precious metals.

  Risks

  Weak China demand, faster inventory restocking, and repricing of Strait of Hormuz-related risks.

• Natural gas

  Relatively resilient segment within energy

  Strengths

  Natural gas open-interest valuation rose 1% week-on-week to 170 billion dollars, with higher benchmark prices in Europe and Asia offsetting contract outflows.

  Weaknesses

  Contract-level flows still show about 2.6 billion dollars of outflow, and changes in TTF gas net shorts have weighed on net energy positioning.

  Comparison

  Compared with crude oil, natural gas has enjoyed greater valuation support from price moves within open-interest.

  Risks

  Price volatility in Europe and Asia, Qatar supply restoration pace, and Strait passage risks.

• Copper

  Base-metal demand and policy watch name

  Strengths

  China’s copper inventories fell by a cumulative 82,000 tons over three weeks to 163,000 tons, which the report reads as a sign of improving Chinese copper consumption.

  Weaknesses

  Net long base-metal positioning is lower, with copper and aluminum being the main drags.

  Comparison

  The copper inventory signal is better than flow performance in aluminum and nickel, but positioning has not yet turned meaningfully stronger.

  Risks

  U.S. Department of Commerce copper import tariff decisions, COMEX replenishment demand, and sustainability of China demand recovery.

• Agriculture

  Positioning divergence and momentum-signal driven

  Strengths

  JPM QDS expects future additions in corn, soybeans, and coffee; wheat and sugar have partly shifted to buy momentum signals.

  Weaknesses

  Net long agricultural positioning declined 23 billion dollars week-on-week, mainly due to soybeans and livestock markets.

  Comparison

  Overall agricultural open-interest valuation is stable, but divergence is driven by grains, oilseeds, softs, and livestock sub-segments.

  Risks

  Momentum signal reversals, weather shocks, and exhaustion of uptrends after sharp price rises.

Key data

• Global commodity open interest valuationabout 1.7 trillion dollars, as of 2026-07-03First modest rebound after six straight weeks of decline; exchange-level table coverage shows around 1.66 trillion dollars.
• Global net investor positioning in commodities169 billion dollars, down 9 billion dollars week-on-weekThis is a roughly 5% decline, primarily driven by energy and agricultural markets.
• Energy market open-interest valuation71.8 billion dollars, down 1% week-on-weekNet flow out of the crude oil contract book was about 12 billion dollars, partly offset by gains in refined products and natural gas prices.
• Precious metals open-interest valuation250 billion dollars, up 3% week-on-weekNet inflow was about 2 billion dollars, mainly into gold; gold net longs increased by about 3.5 billion dollars.
• Base metals open-interest valuationabout 212 billion dollars, broadly flat week-on-weekOutflows in aluminum and nickel were offset by inflows in lead and zinc, with copper flows remaining subdued; China’s copper inventories fell by a cumulative 82,000 tons over three weeks to 163,000 tons.
• Agricultural markets open-interest valuation368 billion dollars, broadly flat week-on-weekOutflows in corn and soybean markets and weakness in livestock prices were offset by rebounds in coffee and cotton.
• Global commodity inventory monitor69 days of supply, down 1% in JuneExcluding China, the metric is 58 days of supply, down 2%; this is mainly due to global oil inventories dropping by around 100 million barrels.
• Gold price outlook3Q26 average $4,300/oz, 4Q26 average $4,500/ozThe report expects gold to remain range-bound in the near term, but still sees upside recovery potential in 2H26.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that the commodity market at a broad level is moving from a cooling phase to a stabilization phase, but it has not yet turned into a broad de-risking / reflation-style add-position regime. From an allocation perspective, precious metals remain relatively supported by flows and rate expectations; crude oil remains constrained by weak demand, potential return flow of stranded barrels, and uncertainty around inventory replenishment; among base metals, declining copper inventories may signal improving China demand, while U.S. copper tariff decisions add policy risk; agricultural markets are more driven by commodity-specific momentum, weather, and supply-demand conditions.

Risks

• Stranded supply returning to the system in the oil market may create a temporary glut.
• There is uncertainty around when and how strongly China’s oil demand will recover.
• If labor-market tightness and persistent inflation push Federal Reserve policy rates higher, gold and other rate-sensitive assets could come under pressure.
• A U.S. copper import tariff decision could increase volatility in copper markets.
• Trend-following and CTA models may amplify price swings near momentum regime shifts.

What to watch

• Whether China resumes oil purchasing and whether the 2026 decline in oil demand matches the report’s assumptions.
• Whether global oil, copper, and aluminum inventories continue to decline, especially on the tradable-inventory basis excluding China.
• How COMEX Gold managed money net longs, ETF flows, and real yields interact.
• Net position changes in ICE Brent, TTF gas, COMEX copper, and key agricultural commodities.
• Whether momentum trading signals for CBOT wheat, sugar, gasoline, and soybeans continue to evolve.