JPMorgan Weekly Commodities View: Gold Returns to Fed Watch, While Oil, Gas and Shipping Focus on the Recovery After Hormuz
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JPMorgan Weekly Commodities View: Gold Returns to Fed Watch, While Oil, Gas and Shipping Focus on the Recovery After Hormuz
The report summarizes the JPMorgan global commodities team's views for the week: gold is more sensitive in the short term to real rates and ETF flows, oil export chains are reconnecting, Qatar LNG loading utilization remains low, and European natural gas demand is supported by extreme heat.
- The short-term base case for gold is more range-bound, with average-price forecasts of $4,300/oz for 3Q26 and $4,500/oz for 4Q26; however, near-term downside risks remain elevated if summer data runs hot and prompts earlier rate hikes.
- Persian Gulf crude exports and diversions recovered to approximately 19 mbd over the past ten days, only about 3 mbd below pre-war levels; floating storage declined to approximately 20 million barrels, with another approximately 10 million barrels still awaiting export in onshore tanks.
- Qatar Energy is estimated to have loaded four LNG cargoes during the week, with seven-day moving-average utilization of approximately 20%, down from approximately 25% the previous week; most loaded vessels remain stranded in the Gulf.
- From June 22 to 28, average total gas demand in NWE+UK was 327 Mcm/day, down 2% week on week but up 14% year on year; regional June CDDs for TTF were approximately 160, around 3.5 standard deviations above the 10-year average.
- As of June 26, the estimated value of open interest tracked across commodity markets declined 4% week on week, falling by approximately $67bn to $1.7tn, with the decrease concentrated in crude oil, copper, and grain and oilseed markets.
Report interpretation
Overview
This is a JPMorgan weekly global commodities summary report that consolidates the latest views from the commodities strategy team on gold, crude oil, LNG, European natural gas, commodity flows, and related research. The report is not focused on a recommendation for a single company; instead, it provides interim assessments of major commodity sectors based on macro interest rates, geopolitical logistics, energy supply chains, weather-driven demand, and changes in market positioning.
Core views
Key views include: gold's marginal pricing is once again being driven by real rates and ETF flows, with the metal likely to trade within a range in the short term amid hawkish FOMC risks, while remaining structurally supported over the long term by central-bank and physical demand; oil-market logistics chains are recovering after the Strait of Hormuz disruption, with exports and vessel queues indicating that loading can be sustained; in LNG, Qatar Energy's loading recovery remains limited and vessel transit is still constrained; European natural gas demand is influenced by summer heat, weak wind and nuclear generation, with non-residential gas use and gas-fired power demand providing support; and the decline in commodity-market open-interest value reflects price and flow pressure across crude oil, copper, and grains and oilseeds.
Analysis framework
The report uses a weekly strategy-summary approach, combining thematic reports, podcasts, price forecasts, demand and inventory tracking, shipping-loading data, and positioning and flow indicators to form cross-commodity macro and micro linkages. The analysis focuses on the marginal impact of rates on gold, the recovery of logistics related to the Strait of Hormuz, LNG loading and transit restrictions, the impact of European weather on gas demand, and changes in commodity-market open interest and flows.
Methodology notes
Integrate research from the commodity sub-teams into a unified weekly report
This approach is suitable for quickly identifying macro co-movement and divergence among gold, crude oil, LNG, natural gas, metals, and agricultural commodities, although details should be verified against the relevant thematic reports.
Gold prices have formed a stronger relationship again with real yields and ETF flows
As buying strength from other demand segments declines, rate-sensitive ETF flows regain marginal pricing power, making the FOMC path and real yields key drivers of short-term gold risk.
Assess supply-chain recovery through export volumes, diversions, floating storage, onshore inventories, and VLCC queues
The report uses the recovery in Persian Gulf exports, the decline in floating storage, and ballast VLCC queues entering the Gulf as evidence that logistics chains are reconnecting.
Use natural gas demand, CDDs, and changes in the power-generation mix to explain European gas prices and demand pressures
The report links high temperatures and weak wind and nuclear generation to gas-fired power demand, and uses deviations of CDDs from historical averages to measure the degree of weather abnormality.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- GoldCore asset of focus
- Strengths
- Still structurally supported over the long term by central-bank and physical buying, with the report expecting prices to recover further in 2027.
- Weaknesses
- Near-term buying strength has declined, while ETF flows and real rates have regained control of marginal pricing.
- Comparison
- Compared with oil and gas, gold is currently driven more by the Federal Reserve's policy path and real rates than by a pure geopolitical supply shock.
- Risks
- If summer economic data runs hot and prompts earlier rate hikes, gold could remain under pressure in the short term.
- Crude OilKey energy-market variable
- Strengths
- Persian Gulf exports, diversions, and VLCC queues indicate that supply chains are reconnecting.
- Weaknesses
- Exports remain below pre-war levels, and onshore inventory and shipping recovery will take time.
- Comparison
- Compared with gold, crude oil's marginal variables are more related to logistics, exports, and the easing of geopolitical risks.
- Risks
- Transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the pace of production recovery, or renewed geopolitical escalation could disrupt supply again.
- LNGShipping and natural-gas supply-chain asset
- Strengths
- Qatar Energy continues to load cargoes, indicating that production has not been completely disrupted.
- Weaknesses
- Loading utilization is approximately 20%, down from approximately 25% the previous week, and most loaded vessels remain stranded in the Gulf.
- Comparison
- Compared with crude oil, LNG is more affected by specific export facilities, vessel transit, and regional delivery constraints.
- Risks
- Restricted Strait of Hormuz transit, warnings regarding non-commercial maritime activity, and delays in destination delivery could increase regional supply risks.
- European Natural GasDemand- and weather-sensitive asset
- Strengths
- High temperatures and weak wind and nuclear generation support non-residential gas use and gas-fired power demand.
- Weaknesses
- Total demand still declined 2% week on week, while residential demand fell week on week.
- Comparison
- Compared with the LNG supply chain, European natural gas is more directly affected by weather, the power-generation mix, and the pace of inventory injections.
- Risks
- If extreme summer heat persists, demand and inventory pressures could rise; if weather returns to normal, demand support could weaken.
- Base Metals and CopperRelated cyclical commodities and flow-monitoring subjects
- Strengths
- Chinese demand, inventory drawdowns, and supply disruptions remain potential sources of support.
- Weaknesses
- Copper contributed approximately -$13bn to the decline in open-interest value, indicating price and flow pressure.
- Comparison
- Compared with gold's rate-driven logic, copper and base metals are more driven by Chinese demand, the industrial cycle, and positioning changes.
- Risks
- Slower macroeconomic growth, outflows, and inventory changes could weigh on price performance.
Key data
- Gold 3Q26 Average-Price Forecast$4,300/ozThe near-term base case is range-bound, with risks still skewed to the downside.
- Gold 4Q26 Average-Price Forecast$4,500/ozThe report expects a gradual recovery in 2H26, subject to the Federal Reserve's policy path and demand recovery.
- Persian Gulf Crude Exports and DiversionsApproximately 19 mbdAverage level over the past ten days, only approximately 3 mbd below pre-war levels.
- Crude Oil in Floating StorageApproximately 20 million barrelsThe backlog is declining rapidly, while another approximately 10 million barrels are awaiting export in onshore tanks.
- Qatar Energy Weekly LNG Loading4 cargoesCorresponding to seven-day moving-average utilization of approximately 20%, down from approximately 25% the previous week.
- NWE+UK Natural Gas Demand327 Mcm/dayAverage from June 22 to 28, down 2% week on week and up 14% year on year.
- TTF Regional June CDDs160 CDDsApproximately 3.5 standard deviations above the 10-year average.
- Commodity-Market Open-Interest Value$1.7tnAs of June 26, down 4% week on week, a decrease of approximately $67bn.
Impact & implications
For investment implications, the long-term gold bull market should not be extrapolated mechanically into the short term; real rates, ETF flows, and FOMC communication warrant close monitoring. The primary oil-market issue is gradually shifting from an extreme supply disruption to the pace of logistics recovery and inventory release. LNG and European natural gas remain highly sensitive to Strait of Hormuz transit, Qatari loading, weather, and the power-generation mix. Overall commodity flows have cooled in the short term, suggesting that some cyclical commodities may face simultaneous price and positioning pressure.
Risks
- A more hawkish FOMC stance or hotter economic data could push real rates higher and weigh on gold.
- Renewed escalation in Strait of Hormuz transit, loading, or geopolitical risks could disrupt crude oil and LNG supply chains.
- Low Qatar LNG loading utilization and stranded vessels could create regional supply and delivery uncertainty.
- Extreme European summer heat could increase gas-fired power demand and inventory pressures.
- Declining commodity open interest and flows could amplify price volatility in crude oil, copper, and grains and oilseeds.
What to watch
- Federal Reserve policy signals, real yields, and gold ETF flows.
- Whether gold can hold the range following its rebound above $4,000/oz and move toward the 3Q26 average-price forecast of $4,300/oz and the 4Q26 forecast of $4,500/oz.
- Persian Gulf export volumes, floating storage, the release of onshore inventories, and ballast VLCC queues entering the Gulf.
- The number of Qatar Energy LNG loading vessels, utilization, and the actual pace of outbound transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
- NWE+UK natural gas demand, regional TTF CDDs, and changes in wind and nuclear generation.
- Commodity-market open interest and changes in crude oil and copper flows.