Energy led the decline in global commodity open interest, while crude oil long positions kept rising

Overview

This report reviews estimated open-interest value, investor net positioning, contract-based flows, and price-momentum trading signals across major global commodity markets. The key conclusion is that overall open interest declined as energy prices fell and capital flowed out, but net investor long positions rose, concentrated in crude oil and agriculture; within metals, the picture was mixed, with precious metals seeing outflows and base metals attracting dip buying from the demand side.

Core views

First, the energy market was the main driver of this week's decline in commodity open interest, with lower oil and gas prices combined with contract-based outflows causing a pronounced drop in energy open-interest value. Second, net crude oil longs continued to rise, indicating that price declines have not stopped some investors from adding directional exposure. Third, although precious-metals open-interest value rebounded, gold-related flows were still negative, and global gold ETF holdings fell by 34 tonnes to 4,084 tonnes. Fourth, within base metals, copper and aluminum saw contract-based outflows, but buying in China strengthened after copper prices pulled back, supporting the near-term demand view. Fifth, net longs in agriculture rose to the highest level since February 2023, with notable inflows into grains and oilseeds.

Analysis framework

The report uses weekly market positioning data as its main thread, combining CFTC segmented holdings, JPM QDS forecasts, estimated open-interest value, contract-based flows, ETF holdings, inventory changes, and price-momentum z-score signals to compare energy, environmental markets, precious metals, base metals, and agriculture.

Methodology notes

• Market positioningCFTC disaggregated data by commodity and group

  Position data broken out by commodity and trader category

  The report uses CFTC disaggregated positioning data to observe long and short changes, as well as net-position direction, across different trader categories in major commodity futures.

• Flows and positioningEstimated open interest and flows

  Estimated open-interest value and contract-based flows

  The report estimates each segment's open-interest value from price and contract-count changes, and separates price-driven moves from net contract inflows or outflows.

• Investor positioningNet investor positioning

  Net investor positions

  It aggregates net long positions across the global commodity futures market to measure investors' directional exposure to commodities overall and by sub-sector.

• Quantitative forecastsJPM QDS projections

  JPM QDS positioning forecasts

  The report cites JPM QDS forecasts through April 6 to conclude that total commodity positioning was broadly flat, with a decline in precious-metals net longs offset by an increase in crude oil net longs.

• Trend tradingPrice momentum z-score trading signals

  Price momentum z-scores and trading signals

  When momentum z-scores approach turning points, trend-following models may switch from buy to sell or vice versa; when momentum reaches extreme thresholds, signals may turn neutral to reflect trend exhaustion and profit-taking risk.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Crude oil and refined products

  The core source of the energy-sector decline and also the main contributor to the increase in net investor longs.

  Strengths

  Crude oil net longs rose from US$61 billion to US$72 billion, and as inventory buffers are gradually drawn down, price may become the main balancing mechanism.

  Weaknesses

  The price curve weakened, and crude oil and refined products saw about US$23 billion of contract-based net outflows.

  Comparison

  Compared with natural gas, crude oil continues to attract stronger directional long allocation even amid price declines.

  Risks

  If the energy supply shock lasts longer than expected or has larger regional spillovers, it could both weigh on growth and lift inflation; if inventories approach operational minimum thresholds, price volatility may intensify.

• Natural gas and LNG

  An important component of the decline in energy open-interest value.

  Strengths

  The passage of the first ballasted LNG carrier through the Strait of Hormuz may suggest a joint management arrangement involving Iran and Oman.

  Weaknesses

  Natural gas open-interest value fell 10% week over week, benchmark prices declined in Europe, Asia, and the United States, and there was a US$4 billion contract-based outflow.

  Comparison

  Compared with crude oil, natural gas lacks a clear increase in long positions to support it.

  Risks

  Qatar's LNG facilities remain shut, the global LNG market has not materially improved, and supply-disruption risks remain.

• Gold and precious metals

  Precious-metals open-interest value rebounded, but flows show that gold remains under pressure.

  Strengths

  Precious-metals open-interest value rose 2% week over week to US$280 billion, and COMEX Gold managed-money net longs edged higher.

  Weaknesses

  The precious-metals segment saw about US$6 billion of contract-based net outflows, with gold accounting for about US$5.3 billion; global gold ETF holdings fell by 34 tonnes.

  Comparison

  Unlike crude oil, precious metals did not see strong net inflows, and JPM QDS forecasts a decline in precious-metals net longs.

  Risks

  If geopolitical tensions do not produce sustained safe-haven buying, gold ETF outflows and weak CTA positioning could weigh on performance.

• Copper and base metals

  The base-metals market is being pulled between outflows and dip buying in China.

  Strengths

  After copper prices pulled back from the March highs, buying in China strengthened, driving post-Lunar New Year inventories lower earlier than usual.

  Weaknesses

  The base-metals segment saw US$2.1 billion of contract-based net outflows, including about US$1.2 billion in copper and US$800 million in aluminum.

  Comparison

  Base-metals open-interest value rose only 1%, lagging the expansion in agriculture net longs.

  Risks

  If the sustainability of dip buying in China fades, the support from lower inventories may weaken.

• Agriculture, grains, and oilseeds

  One of the important sources of the increase in net investor positioning.

  Strengths

  Net longs in the agriculture market increased by US$4 billion to US$46 billion, the highest level since February 2023; grains and oilseeds saw the main inflows.

  Weaknesses

  Price declines in grains, oilseeds, and soft commodities partly offset the support from inflows.

  Comparison

  Compared with energy, agriculture showed a small rise in open-interest value supported by inflows.

  Risks

  With net longs at high levels, a weakening in price momentum could trigger crowded-long unwinding.

• Environmental markets, EUA, and UK ETS

  Overall open-interest value was broadly flat.

  Strengths

  Higher EUA and UK ETS prices offset small contract-based outflows.

  Weaknesses

  Investment funds' net longs in EUA fell to 32,356 contracts, down 411 contracts week over week.

  Comparison

  Volatility and flow changes in environmental markets were weaker than in energy, metals, and agriculture.

  Risks

  If policy expectations or changes in energy prices affect carbon prices, the current stability could be broken.

Key data

• Global commodity estimated open-interest valueUS$1.85 trillion, down 3%As of 2026-04-03, the energy market led the decline.
• Net investor positioning across the marketUS$235 billion, up US$17 billion, or 8%The increase was mainly driven by higher crude oil net longs.
• Crude oil net longsUS$72 billion, versus US$61 billion the previous weekJPM QDS forecasts indicate an additional increase of about US$3.9 billion in crude oil net longs.
• Energy market estimated open-interest valueUS$889 billion, down 7%Crude oil and refined products accounted for about 70% of the decline in energy open-interest value.
• Energy segment contract-based net outflowUS$33 billionAcross all trader types combined.
• Natural gas estimated open-interest valueUS$180 billion, down 10%Benchmark prices in Europe, Asia, and the United States fell, and there was a US$4 billion contract-based outflow.
• Precious-metals estimated open-interest valueUS$280 billion, up 2%This reversed the sharp declines seen over the previous two weeks.
• Gold-related flowsAbout US$6 billion of net outflows in the precious-metals segment, including about US$5.3 billion from goldCOMEX Gold managed-money net longs edged up to 92.8k contracts.
• Global gold ETF holdings4,084 tonnes, down 34 tonnes week over weekFor the week ended 2026-03-27.
• Base-metals estimated open-interest valueUS$214 billion, up 1%The segment saw US$2.1 billion of contract-based net outflows, concentrated in copper and aluminum.
• China copper inventoriesAbout 300 thousand tonnes in SHFE and bonded warehousesAfter copper prices pulled back, buying in China strengthened, and post-Lunar New Year inventories fell early by about 140 thousand tonnes.
• Agriculture market estimated open-interest valueUS$374 billion, up 1%Contract-based net inflows of US$2.5 billion, led by grains and oilseeds, partly offset the impact of lower prices.

Impact & implications

For investors, the report suggests that commodities are not experiencing a one-way decline in risk appetite. Instead, capital is being reallocated in response to energy price shocks: energy open-interest value fell, but crude oil net longs increased, indicating that supply shocks and the drawdown of inventory buffers may continue to amplify oil-price volatility; precious metals still saw ETF outflows amid geopolitical risks, showing that safe-haven demand is not uniform; after copper prices retreated, Chinese demand support strengthened, which could limit downside in base metals; and the rise in agriculture net longs to elevated levels raises the risk of crowded positioning and price pullbacks.

Risks

• An energy supply shock could both weigh on global growth and lift inflation, but the size, duration, and regional effects remain highly uncertain.
• As crude oil inventory buffers continue to be drawn down, price rather than inventory may become the main balancing mechanism, increasing oil-price volatility.
• Qatar's LNG facilities remain shut, leaving the global LNG market tight; signs of transit through the Strait of Hormuz have not fundamentally changed the supply-demand balance.
• Outflows from precious metals and lower gold ETF holdings show that safe-haven demand is not stable.
• Some commodities' price momentum has reached extreme thresholds, which may indicate trend exhaustion, profit-taking, or model signals turning neutral.
• Agriculture net longs are at multi-year highs, and if fundamentals or momentum reverse, crowded-long unwinds may follow.

What to watch

• Whether crude oil inventories continue to approach operational minimum thresholds and whether prices take on a larger share of the supply-demand balancing burden.
• Whether crude oil net longs continue to rise, especially whether the additional expansion in JPM QDS crude oil longs materializes.
• Further developments in natural gas and LNG markets, including the reopening of Qatar facilities, transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and any regional arrangements.
• Whether gold ETF holdings and COMEX Gold managed-money net longs continue to diverge.
• Whether Chinese buying in copper continues to provide dip-buying support over the next few weeks and drives inventories lower.
• Changes in momentum signals for Kansas Wheat, COMEX Silver, LME Zinc, ICE NY Cocoa, TTF natural gas, and LME Aluminum.