USD/CNY fix: Nomura projects the USD/CNY fixing at 6.7037, below the previous fix.

Overview

This short Asia FX Strategy update provides Nomura’s model-based projection for the next USD/CNY fixing, with and without a counter-cyclical-factor adjustment.

Core views

Nomura projects the USD/CNY fixing at 6.7037, compared with the previous fixing of 6.7521. This is 484 pips lower than the prior fix, while standing 64 pips above the previous official spot close. The update therefore distinguishes the model’s implied fixing level from the immediately preceding official spot reference. When Nomura incorporates a counter-cyclical factor, its projected fixing is 6.7279. That adjusted estimate is 242 pips below the previous fix, making it higher than the unadjusted 6.7037 projection. The report also presents supporting exhibits on the largest weighted overnight contributions to the projected change, recent unadjusted model errors, and daily movements in the USD/CNY fix. The accompanying event calendar identifies items that may be relevant to the China FX backdrop: President Xi’s state visit to the United States on 24 September 2026; a late-September PBoC monetary policy committee meeting; China’s National Day Golden Week from 1–7 October; the PBoC’s Q3 2026 monetary policy report in mid-November; and the 18–19 November APEC meeting in Shenzhen.

Analysis framework

Nomura applies a USD/CNY fix model to estimate the fixing, compares the output with the prior fix and prior official spot close, and separately shows the result after adding a counter-cyclical-factor adjustment. It supplements the calculation with overnight contribution, model-error and daily-fix exhibits.

Methodology notes

• Other

  USD/CNY fix model with and without a counter-cyclical factor

  The report estimates the daily USD/CNY fixing from a model, then shows how adding a counter-cyclical factor changes the projected level relative to the prior fixing.

Key data

• USD/CNY model projection6.7037484 pips below the previous 6.7521 fix and 64 pips above the previous official spot close.
• USD/CNY projection with counter-cyclical factor6.7279242 pips below the previous fix.
• Previous USD/CNY fix6.7521Reference point used for both projected changes.

Impact & implications

The report’s central implication is that the estimated fixing differs materially depending on whether the counter-cyclical factor is included: the adjustment raises the projected level from 6.7037 to 6.7279 while leaving it below the previous fix.

What to watch

• President Xi’s state visit to the US on 24 September 2026.
• The late-September PBoC monetary policy committee meeting.
• China’s National Day Golden Week from 1–7 October 2026.
• The PBoC’s Q3 2026 monetary policy report in mid-November.
• The APEC meeting in Shenzhen on 18–19 November 2026.