Nomura's USD/CNY fixing model forecasts 6.7824

Overview

This report is Nomura's daily forecast from the USD/CNY fixing model. The core conclusion is that the model forecasts the fixing at 6.7824, down 110 pips from the previous model forecast of 6.7934; with the counter-cyclical factor included, the forecast is 6.7862. The report is dated 2026-07-20 and was published by Nomura Singapore Ltd.; the research team belongs to Asia FX Strategy.

Core views

The report's core view focuses on short-term model pricing of the RMB fixing: the model forecast excluding the counter-cyclical factor indicates a lower USD/CNY fixing; the forecast including the counter-cyclical factor is slightly higher than the base model but remains 72 pips below the previous fixing. The report provides no explicit trading recommendation, stock rating, or target price.

Analysis framework

The analysis primarily uses the USD/CNY fix model, comparing the current model forecast, previous model forecast, prior official spot close, and the forecast including the counter-cyclical factor. The charts mention overnight contribution factors, recent model errors, and daily changes in the USD/CNY fixing. The event calendar covers China- and US-related macro events from July to October 2026.

Methodology notes

• Macro FX modelUSD/CNY fix model

  RMB fixing model forecast

  The model estimates the USD/CNY fixing and compares the current forecast with the previous forecast and the prior official spot close in pips.

• Policy adjustment factorcounter-cyclical factor adjustment

  Counter-cyclical factor adjustment

  The report also provides the model forecast of 6.7862 including the counter-cyclical factor, to assess the impact of policy or pricing adjustment factors on the fixing forecast.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• USD/CNY

  Directly covered instrument

  Strengths

  The report provides a clear daily fixing forecast and distinguishes between the base model and the scenario including the counter-cyclical factor.

  Weaknesses

  The main text contains limited information and lacks complete model parameters, detailed weights, and verifiable historical error data.

  Comparison

  Base model forecast 6.7824; forecast including the counter-cyclical factor 6.7862; previous forecast 6.7934.

  Risks

  Model errors, policy adjustments, changes in market risk appetite, the US dollar trajectory, and Chinese macro events may all affect the actual fixing.

Key data

• Base model forecast6.7824110 pips below the previous model forecast of 6.7934.
• Previous model forecast6.7934Used for comparison with the current forecast.
• Relative to the prior official spot close+51 pipsThe current base model forecast is 51 pips above the prior official spot close.
• Model forecast including the counter-cyclical factor6.786272 pips below the previous fixing.
• Report date2026-07-20Date shown on the report cover.

Impact & implications

The forecast suggests that the short-term USD/CNY fixing may move lower from the previous forecast level, although the forecast including the counter-cyclical factor is slightly higher than the base model. For FX investors, the focus is on RMB fixing pricing, model errors, policy factors, and the impact of upcoming Chinese macro policy events on exchange-rate expectations.

Risks

• The forecast is model-based, and historical performance or simulated results do not guarantee future performance.
• The counter-cyclical factor and policy pricing behavior may cause the actual fixing to deviate from the base model forecast.
• Macro events, regulatory changes, market risk appetite, and supply-demand factors may alter the short-term exchange-rate path.
• The report disclaimer states that the information and opinions may change and that Nomura is under no obligation to update or revise them.

What to watch

• The actual PBoC fixing and its deviation from 6.7824 and 6.7862.
• Whether recent model errors widen.
• The impact of the main overnight contribution factors on changes in the model forecast.
• The Politburo economic work conference in late July 2026.
• The PBoC's 2Q 2026 monetary policy report in mid-August 2026.
• The PBoC Monetary Policy Committee meeting in late September 2026.