USD/CNY fix model: Nomura projects the USD/CNY fixing at 6.6977, 510 pips below its prior model projection.

Overview

This short Nomura Asia FX Strategy update presents a daily model estimate for the USD/CNY fixing and an alternative estimate incorporating the counter-cyclical factor.

Core views

Nomura projects the USD/CNY fixing at 6.6977, compared with its prior model projection of 6.7487. The new base-model estimate is therefore 510 pips lower than the prior projection, while standing 22 pips above the previous official spot close. The report also calculates a 6.7211 fixing estimate after incorporating the counter-cyclical factor. This adjusted estimate is 276 pips lower than the previous fix. The report presents recent model errors, daily fixing changes, and the largest weighted overnight contributors to the projected move as supporting monitoring tools, but the supplied text does not disclose their detailed numerical breakdown.

Analysis framework

Nomura uses a model to estimate the daily USD/CNY fixing, compares the result with its previous projection and the prior official spot close, and separately shows the effect of including a counter-cyclical-factor adjustment. It also references recent model errors and weighted overnight contributions to the projected change.

Methodology notes

• Other

  USD/CNY fix model with counter-cyclical-factor adjustment

  The report estimates the daily USD/CNY fixing with a model and provides a separate result after applying the counter-cyclical factor, showing how that adjustment changes the projected fixing.

Key data

• USD/CNY base-model projection6.6977510 pips below the previous 6.7487 projection and 22 pips above the previous official spot close.
• Previous model projection6.7487Comparison point for the updated base-model estimate.
• Projection with counter-cyclical factor6.7211276 pips below the previous fix.

Impact & implications

The update indicates a lower USD/CNY fixing estimate than Nomura's prior model projection. Applying the counter-cyclical factor produces a higher estimate than the unadjusted model result, while still remaining below the previous fix.

What to watch

• President Xi's state visit to the United States on 24 September 2026.
• The PBoC monetary policy committee meeting in late September 2026.
• China's National Day Golden Week holiday from 1 to 7 October 2026.
• The PBoC's Q3 2026 monetary policy report expected in mid-November 2026.
• The APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen on 18–19 November 2026.