Nomura model forecasts USD/CNY fixing at 6.7708

Overview

This report is a USD/CNY fixing model forecast published by Nomura's Asia FX Strategy team, with the core output being the USD/CNY fixing forecast for July 21, 2026. The report discloses a model forecast of 6.7708, 240 points below the previous model forecast or prior value of 6.7948; with the counter-cyclical factor included, the forecast is 6.7808, 140 points below the previous fixing.

Core views

The report itself is primarily a model-based daily forecast and does not provide an explicit trading rating. The main implication is that the model expects the USD/CNY fixing to be below the previous value, indicating a stronger RMB fixing relative to the prior fixing; however, the forecast including the counter-cyclical factor is higher than the base model, suggesting that policy adjustment factors may influence the final pricing.

Analysis framework

The report uses a USD/CNY fixing model to compare the previous official spot close, the previous fixing, and overnight factor contributions, supplemented by recent model error, daily fixing changes, and a macroeconomic event calendar for context.

Methodology notes

• FX pricing modelUSD/CNY fix model

  Fixing model forecast

  The model estimates the PBoC RMB fixing and compares the current model forecast, the previous value, the official spot close, and the result after adjustment for the counter-cyclical factor.

• Policy factorcounter-cyclical factor

  Counter-cyclical factor

  The report provides a forecast of 6.7808 including the counter-cyclical factor to assess the potential impact of policy adjustment factors on USD/CNY fixing.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• USD/CNY

  Directly covered instrument

  Strengths

  The report provides a daily fixing model forecast and point-spread comparisons with the previous value and official spot close.

  Weaknesses

  The body contains limited usable information and does not elaborate on the full weighting, regression variables, or error decomposition.

  Comparison

  The base model forecast of 6.7708 is below the previous value of 6.7948; the forecast including the counter-cyclical factor of 6.7808 is above the base model.

  Risks

  The actual fixing may be affected by policy adjustment, market liquidity, the USD trend, and event shocks.

• RMB assets

  Indirectly affected

  Strengths

  Changes in the RMB fixing can affect FX expectations and the pricing of cross-border assets.

  Weaknesses

  The report provides no rating or allocation recommendations for equities, bonds, or specific RMB assets.

  Comparison

  Only macroeconomic implications can be inferred from the direction of the USD/CNY fixing; this cannot substitute for asset-level research.

  Risks

  Policy statements, PBoC operations, US interest rates, and China-US events may alter risk appetite for RMB assets.

Key data

• Base model forecast6.7708USD/CNY fix model projection.
• Previous value6.7948The model forecast is 240 points below the previous value.
• Relative to previous official spot close38 points higherThe base model forecast is 38 points above the previous official spot close.
• Forecast including counter-cyclical factor6.7808140 points below the previous fixing.
• Report date2026-07-21The report body displays the date as 21 July 2026.
• Event calendarJuly to October 2026Includes the Politburo economic work meeting, the PBoC's second-quarter monetary policy report, President Xi Jinping's visit to the United States, the PBoC Monetary Policy Committee meeting, and the National Day Golden Week holiday.

Impact & implications

If the model forecast is close to the actual fixing, the short-term RMB fixing will strengthen relative to the previous value, potentially affecting expectations for offshore and onshore RMB spot trading. The result including the counter-cyclical factor is higher than the base model, indicating that policy factors may still cause RMB pricing to deviate from the model.

Risks

• The model forecast is not equivalent to the official final fixing and is subject to model error.
• The counter-cyclical factor or other policy adjustments may cause actual pricing to deviate from the base model.
• Macroeconomic events and policy meetings may change market expectations for the RMB exchange rate.
• The report does not provide explicit trading recommendations and should not be viewed directly as a buy or sell signal.

What to watch

• China's Politburo economic work meeting in late July 2026.
• The PBoC's second-quarter monetary policy report in mid-August 2026.
• President Xi Jinping's state visit to the United States on September 24, 2026.
• The PBoC Monetary Policy Committee meeting in late September 2026.
• The impact of China's National Day Golden Week holiday from October 1 to 7 on liquidity and trading behavior.