Nomura forecasts the USD/CNY fixing at 6.7716

Overview

This report from Nomura Asia FX Strategy provides a model forecast for the USD/CNY fixing. The key conclusion is that the model forecast is 6.7716, below the previous fixing of 6.7933; including the countercyclical factor, the forecast is 6.7770. The report focuses on short-term changes in renminbi fixing pricing rather than company fundamentals or equity investment recommendations.

Core views

The report shows that the model forecast for the USD/CNY fixing has declined from the previous fixing, indicating a relatively stronger short-term direction for the renminbi fixing. Excluding the countercyclical factor, the decline is 217 points; including the countercyclical factor, the decline narrows to 163 points. The report does not provide an explicit trading recommendation or asset allocation conclusion.

Analysis framework

The report uses an FX model to forecast the USD/CNY fixing and distinguishes between scenarios with and without the countercyclical factor. Supporting charts include major overnight contribution factors, recent model errors, daily changes in the USD/CNY fixing, and a calendar of upcoming events.

Methodology notes

• Macro FXUSD/CNY fixing model

  Model forecast

  Estimates the next-period USD/CNY fixing through an FX pricing model and compares it with the previous fixing and the official spot close.

• Macro policyCountercyclical factor adjustment

  Countercyclical factor

  The report separately discloses the forecast including the countercyclical factor to assess the impact of policy adjustment factors on the fixing forecast.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• USD/CNY

  Directly covered instrument

  Strengths

  The model provides a clear point forecast and also discloses an adjusted scenario including the countercyclical factor.

  Weaknesses

  The report provides limited usable information in the main text and does not disclose the full model variables, weights, or detailed error statistics.

  Comparison

  6.7716 is below the previous fixing of 6.7933; 6.7770 including the countercyclical factor is above 6.7716 excluding the factor.

  Risks

  The actual fixing may be affected by policy adjustment, market risk appetite, US dollar movements, and unexpected macroeconomic events.

• Renminbi-related assets

  Indirectly affected

  Strengths

  A stronger fixing signal may improve short-term sentiment toward renminbi assets.

  Weaknesses

  The report provides no specific investment recommendations for stocks, bonds, or industries.

  Comparison

  The impact is transmitted primarily through exchange-rate expectations rather than fundamental earnings forecasts.

  Risks

  Policy communication, China-US events, and US dollar volatility may alter the exchange-rate path.

Key data

• Model forecast6.7716USD/CNY fixing forecast excluding the countercyclical factor.
• Previous fixing6.7933The report states that the model forecast is 217 points below this previous fixing.
• Change relative to the previous official spot close24 points lowerThe report states that the model forecast is 24 points below the previous official spot close.
• Model forecast including the countercyclical factor6.7770163 points below the previous fixing.
• Upcoming eventsLate July 2026 to October 7, 2026The event calendar includes the Politburo economic work meeting, the PBoC monetary policy report, President Xi Jinping's visit to the United States, the PBoC Monetary Policy Committee meeting, and the National Day Golden Week holiday.

Impact & implications

The forecast is below the previous fixing, which may reflect a model signal of a stronger short-term renminbi fixing. For FX trading, renminbi assets, and assets with USD/CNY exposure, investors should monitor the actual fixing, policy signals, and the impact of China-US-related events on exchange-rate expectations.

Risks

• The model forecast is not equivalent to the actual fixing, and future results may deviate.
• The countercyclical factor and policy adjustments may alter the USD/CNY fixing path.
• US dollar movements, market risk appetite, and China-US relationship events may cause exchange-rate volatility.
• The full model parameters are not disclosed, making it difficult for investors to independently reproduce the forecast.

What to watch

• Whether the actual USD/CNY fixing approaches 6.7716 or 6.7770.
• Policy signals from China's Politburo economic work meeting in late July 2026.
• The PBoC's second-quarter monetary policy report in mid-August 2026.
• President Xi Jinping's visit to the United States on September 24, 2026, and related market reactions.
• The PBoC Monetary Policy Committee meeting in late September 2026.
• Liquidity and market sentiment during China's National Day Golden Week from October 1 to 7, 2026.