Nomura expects the USD/CNY fix model value to be 6.7936

Overview

This is a short-term FX strategy report by Nomura on the USD/CNY fix model. Published on July 10, 2026, its core output is the CNY fix model forecast: 6.7936 excluding the counter-cyclical factor and 6.7942 including it.

Core views

The report's core view is that the model-predicted USD/CNY fix has moved lower from the previous value, indicating a stronger CNY fix in the short term. The base model forecast of 6.7936 is 100 pips below the previous value of 6.8036; including the counter-cyclical factor, it is 6.7942, 94 pips below the previous fix.

Analysis framework

The report uses the USD/CNY fix model to forecast the daily fix and compares results excluding and including the counter-cyclical factor. It also incorporates overnight weighted contributions, recent model errors, daily changes in the fix, and the macro event calendar to support its assessment.

Methodology notes

• FX quantitative modelUSD/CNY fix model

  CNY fix model forecast

  The model estimates the official USD/CNY fix, and the report provides the base model forecast and its change in pips relative to the previous value.

• Policy adjustment factorCounter-cyclical factor

  Counter-cyclical factor adjustment

  The report also presents the forecast including the counter-cyclical factor to assess the impact of policy or mechanism adjustments on the CNY fix forecast.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• USD/CNY

  Direct subject of research

  Strengths

  The report provides a clear daily fix model forecast and counter-cyclical factor adjustment, facilitating the monitoring of short-term pricing deviations.

  Weaknesses

  The core information disclosed in the text is concentrated, with limited details on full model parameters, historical errors, and independently reproducible data.

  Comparison

  The base model value of 6.7936 is below the previous value of 6.8036; including the counter-cyclical factor, it is 6.7942, slightly above the base model but still below the previous fix.

  Risks

  Model errors, policy factors, USD movements, Chinese macro events, and changes in market risk appetite may affect the actual fix.

Key data

• Base model forecast6.7936100 pips below the previous value of 6.8036; 1 pip above the previous official spot close.
• Forecast including counter-cyclical factor6.794294 pips below the previous fix.
• Report date2026-07-10The report text lists the date as 10 July 2026.
• Research sourceBloomberg, NomuraThe event calendar data is sourced from Bloomberg and Nomura.

Impact & implications

The forecast provides short-term reference value for investors focused on CNY pricing, offshore/onshore CNY exchange rates, Asian FX strategies, and related macro trades. A model value below the previous value generally indicates a stronger CNY fix, but the report itself does not provide explicit trading advice or a stock rating.

Risks

• The model forecast is not the actual official fix, and recent model errors may cause deviations.
• The counter-cyclical factor and policy stance are uncertain and may alter fix pricing.
• Important macro meetings in China in the second half of the year and international events may affect CNY expectations.
• The report disclaimer states that forecasts and simulations are not reliable indicators of future performance, and market prices may differ from the indicative prices at the time of the report.

What to watch

• China's Politburo economic work meeting in late July 2026.
• China's Golden Week holiday from October 1 to 7, 2026.
• The APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen in November 2026.
• The Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December 2026.
• The Politburo meeting in late December 2026.
• Developments related to a visit to the United States by China's president around the end of 2026.