South Korea semiconductor equipment imports and their read-through to global semiconductor equipment vendors Report Interpretation

Overview

Bernstein uses South Korean customs import data as a near-term indicator for semiconductor-equipment demand and vendor sales. The tracker finds strong year-on-year imports and continuing memory-investment momentum, but its company-level signals differ across Advantest, Tokyo Electron and ASML.

Core views

Korea Customs Service released July 2026 semiconductor-equipment import data on 18 August. Bernstein reports that total South Korean semiconductor-equipment imports were $3.4bn, down 5% month on month but up 50% year on year; year-to-date growth improved to 41% from 39% in June. Imports of Japanese semiconductor-production equipment were down 2% month on month but up 41% year on year, while the three-month moving average was flat sequentially for both total and Japanese imports. The report therefore views the data as evidence of strong year-on-year equipment demand despite a softer single-month sequential reading. The broader capex signal is constructive for memory equipment. Bernstein finds that Korean equipment imports have historically correlated reasonably with the combined capital expenditure of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Although both companies’ 1QCY26 capex declined sequentially despite higher imports—attributed to seasonality and infrastructure investment being front-loaded into 4Q25—imports increased further in 2QCY26 and both companies reported a quarter-on-quarter capex rebound. SK hynix has guided approximately 75% year-on-year growth in 2026 capex, and Bernstein expects similar growth from Samsung. The report expects future capex and equipment imports to continue rising, with more spending directed to infrastructure and strategic equipment as the companies accelerate fab construction; it notes capex could soon grow faster than import data. For Advantest, tester imports from Japan and Malaysia fell 12% month on month in July but increased 144% year on year, with the three-month average up 15% month on month. Bernstein states that this import series has a strong correlation with Advantest’s Korean memory-tester revenue. Its regression estimates September-quarter Korean sales of JPY94bn, up 39% quarter on quarter from JPY67bn, compared with total-sales growth of 20% in Bernstein’s model and 13% in consensus. The report consequently identifies potential upside to consensus corporate revenue expectations, while noting that the estimate is based on only one month of data. For Tokyo Electron, Bernstein groups Korean import categories in which the company participates, including CVD, dry etching, cleaning, coater/developer and RTP. July imports in these categories rose 11% month on month and 89% year on year, but the three-month moving average was down 5% sequentially. The regression indicates Korean sales of JPY169bn in the September quarter, up 11% quarter on quarter from JPY152bn. That is below Bernstein’s projected 22% total-sales growth and consensus’s 18% growth, so the Korea-import signal implies slight downside to consensus semiconductor-production-equipment sales. ASML-related imports from the Netherlands were approximately €5.0bn in 2024, €6.3bn in 2025, and already €6.14bn year to date in 2026, up about 80% year on year. Bernstein says imports rose at the end of 2024 largely because of DRAM-player orders. The latest monthly reading was €732mn, down 20% month on month but up 80% year on year. To improve its forecast, Bernstein regresses ASML Korea system sales on the current month’s imports and the prior month’s imports; the model has an R² of about 77%. It estimates Q3 ASML Korea system sales of about €2.02bn, down 28% sequentially from the record Q2 level but up 102% year on year. Korea would represent roughly 23% of total Q3 system sales, about 20 percentage points lower sequentially. Bernstein interprets the still-high level of Korean and memory revenue as supported by substantial DRAM capacity expansion and rapid adoption of the more lithography-intensive 1c node. The report retains Outperform ratings on Advantest, ASML, Tokyo Electron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Its disclosed target-price framework applies forward Q5–Q8 earnings multiples: 40x for Advantest and ASML, 28x for Tokyo Electron, and 6.2x for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.

Analysis framework

Bernstein first evaluates total and country-of-origin Korean equipment imports, then compares the series with reported Samsung and SK hynix capex. It maps selected import categories to individual vendors’ Korean sales, uses historical correlations and regression models to estimate quarterly sales, and compares those estimates with consensus. The report also uses forward earnings multiples to set target prices for its covered companies.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Equipment-import and memory-capex tracker

  The report treats Korean semiconductor-equipment imports and Samsung/SK hynix capex as indicators of equipment demand and memory-investment momentum.

• Other

  Regression of vendor Korean sales on monthly import data, including a one-month lag for ASML

  Bernstein uses historical import-sales relationships to estimate near-term Korean revenue for Advantest, Tokyo Electron and ASML; ASML’s two-month input model has an R² of about 77%.

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  Forward earnings-multiple valuation

  Target prices are calculated by applying stated P/E multiples to forward Q5–Q8 EPS estimates.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Advantest (6857.JP)

  Korean tester-import data is used as an indicator of Korean memory-tester revenue.

  Strengths

  Regression implies Korean sales growth of 39% quarter on quarter, above the 13% consensus growth rate for corporate revenue.

  Weaknesses

  The estimate relies on only one month of data.

  Comparison

  Bernstein’s total-sales forecast is +20% quarter on quarter versus consensus at +13%.

  Risks

  AI-related GPU and HBM demand, competitive changes, and exchange-rate fluctuations.

• Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)

  Korean imports of relevant WFE categories are used as an indicator of Korean revenue.

  Strengths

  July relevant imports were up 89% year on year and 11% month on month.

  Weaknesses

  The three-month moving average was down 5% sequentially and the regression implies only 11% quarterly Korean-sales growth.

  Comparison

  The import-based signal is below 18% quarter-on-quarter consensus semiconductor-production-equipment sales growth.

  Risks

  Unfavorable US trade restrictions, weaker global logic or memory demand affecting capex, and exchange-rate movements.

• ASML (ASML)

  South Korean WFE imports from the Netherlands are used to estimate Korean system sales.

  Strengths

  Estimated Q3 Korean system sales of €2.02bn would more than double year on year; higher DRAM capacity and 1c-node adoption support lithography intensity.

  Weaknesses

  The estimate is down 28% sequentially from a record Q2, and monthly imports are volatile.

  Comparison

  Korea is estimated to account for about 23% of Q3 system sales, down about 20 percentage points sequentially.

  Risks

  Margins below expectations from EUV commercialization costs, China over-stocking, weaker WFE demand, slower technology migration, competing technologies, and tighter China export controls.

• Samsung Electronics (005930.KS; 005935.KS)

  A major Korean memory producer whose capex is correlated with equipment-import data.

  Strengths

  2QCY26 capex rebounded sequentially; Bernstein expects growth similar to SK hynix in 2026.

  Weaknesses

  1QCY26 capex declined sequentially despite rising equipment imports.

  Comparison

  Bernstein expects Samsung’s 2026 capex growth to be similar to SK hynix’s guided approximately 75%.

  Risks

  An earlier end to favorable pricing from weaker demand or higher supply, valuation sentiment, and China’s memory progress, especially NAND.

• SK hynix (000660.KS)

  A major Korean memory producer whose capex is correlated with equipment-import data.

  Strengths

  2QCY26 capex rebounded sequentially and the company guided approximately 75% growth in 2026 capex.

  Comparison

  Alongside Samsung, its capex trend is used to validate the equipment-import signal.

  Risks

  An earlier end to favorable pricing from weaker demand or higher supply, valuation sentiment, and China’s memory progress, especially NAND.

Key data

• July South Korean semiconductor-equipment imports$3.4bn-5% month on month, +50% year on year
• July Japanese semiconductor-equipment imports into South Korea$696mn-2% month on month, +41% year on year
• Advantest estimated September-quarter Korea salesJPY94bn+39% quarter on quarter; versus consensus total-revenue growth of +13% quarter on quarter
• Tokyo Electron estimated September-quarter Korea salesJPY169bn+11% quarter on quarter; versus +18% consensus semiconductor-production-equipment sales growth
• ASML estimated Q3 Korea system sales€2.02bn-28% quarter on quarter and +102% year on year; about 23% of total Q3 system sales
• SK hynix 2026 capex guidance~75% growthYear-on-year capex growth guidance

Impact & implications

Bernstein views the import data as supportive of continued Korean memory investment and equipment demand. Its near-term read-through is most favorable for Advantest, constructive for ASML’s year-on-year Korea revenue momentum, and modestly below consensus for Tokyo Electron.

Risks

• Advantest faces risks from AI-related GPU and HBM demand fluctuations, competition and exchange rates.
• ASML faces risks from lower-than-expected margins, China over-stocking, weaker WFE demand, slower technology migration, alternative technologies and tighter China export controls.
• Tokyo Electron faces risks from adverse US trade restrictions, a global logic or memory demand slowdown that affects capex, and exchange rates.
• Samsung Electronics and SK hynix face the risk of an earlier end to favorable memory pricing due to weaker demand or higher supply, as well as China’s progress in memory, particularly NAND.

What to watch

• Monthly South Korean equipment, tester and relevant WFE import data, including the three-month moving averages.
• Samsung Electronics and SK hynix capex execution, fab-construction progress and DRAM capacity expansion.
• Whether Advantest, Tokyo Electron and ASML Korean sales align with the import-regression estimates.
• The pace of 1c-node adoption and its effect on lithography intensity.
• Changes in export controls, global semiconductor demand and China inventory conditions.