Taiwan Semiconductor Equipment Imports Up 40% YoY; Industry Momentum Continues but Short-Term MoM Cools

Overview

Based on semiconductor equipment import data for July 2026 released by Taiwan's Ministry of Finance, the report tracks business trends in Taiwan for major Japanese and European equipment makers. Overall imports maintained high YoY growth, reflecting that foundry capital expenditure and capacity expansion remain strong; however, the single-month data fell notably from June, reflecting seasonally weaker trends in the first month of the quarter and volatility in equipment deliveries.

Core views

At the industry level, Taiwan semiconductor equipment imports increased 40% YoY, and imports from Japan increased 54% YoY, supporting a positive view on the Japanese and European semiconductor equipment sectors. At the company level, ASML benefits from lithography demand gradually strengthening alongside TSMC capacity expansion, with third-quarter Taiwan system sales forecast to increase 1% YoY; the import-mapping results for Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Screen point to Taiwan revenue for the quarter declining 6%, declining 13%, and remaining flat QoQ, respectively, all weaker than the growth levels implied by their respective consensus expectations. Because monthly import data are subject to seasonality and delivery-timing volatility, near-term forecasts need to be validated against data from subsequent months.

Analysis framework

The report conducts directional correlation and regression analysis between Taiwan monthly import data by equipment category and source region and each equipment maker's historical Taiwan sales, and uses single-month data and three-month moving averages to estimate quarterly revenue. For ASML, it uses lithography equipment import data; for Advantest, tester import data from Japan and Malaysia; for Tokyo Electron, it aggregates relevant categories such as deposition, dry etch, cleaning, coating/developing, and rapid thermal processing; and for Screen, it uses global cleaning equipment import data.

Methodology notes

• High-Frequency Industry TrackingSemiconductor Equipment Import Tracker

  Use monthly customs import value to observe equipment procurement and delivery trends at Taiwan fabs.

  Equipment import value can serve as a high-frequency proxy for suppliers' Taiwan revenue, but it is affected by delivery recognition, equipment source region, and differences in customs classification.

• Time-Series AnalysisThree-Month Moving Average

  Reduce volatility in single-month equipment import data through rolling averages.

  In July, the three-month moving averages of equipment imports from global and Japanese sources both increased 1% MoM; among relevant equipment categories, the corresponding data for Tokyo Electron and Screen both increased 5%, while testers declined 4%.

• Quantitative ForecastingImport Value and Revenue Regression

  Estimate quarterly revenue based on the historical relationship between import value and company Taiwan sales.

  ASML's single-month lithography import data has an R-squared of 53% with Taiwan system sales, indicating a moderate correlation; other companies also show directional correlation, but the Ministry of Finance does not provide source-country breakdowns for some categories, limiting model accuracy.

• Relative ValuationForward P/E Valuation

  Determine target prices by multiplying estimated earnings per share for the fifth to eighth future quarters by target P/E ratios.

  Advantest and ASML use a 40x P/E ratio, Tokyo Electron uses 28x, and Screen uses 19x; the target price for ASML's U.S.-listed shares is additionally converted based on the euro-to-U.S.-dollar exchange rate.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ASML Holding NV（ASML）

  Taiwan lithography equipment imports have a moderate correlation with its Taiwan system sales, making it a key European equipment maker covered in the report.

  Strengths

  July lithography equipment imports increased 86% YoY, and TSMC capacity expansion is driving stronger lithography demand; Bernstein rates it “Outperform.”

  Weaknesses

  The model forecasts third-quarter Taiwan system sales to decline 14% QoQ, with Taiwan revenue as a share of system sales falling to 19%.

  Comparison

  Compared with test, cleaning, and Tokyo Electron-related equipment, lithography imports showed stronger YoY performance; the target price is €2,500, and the target price for U.S.-listed shares is USD 2,859.

  Risks

  Commercialization costs for advanced EUV leading to lower-than-expected margins, overstocking in the China market, weakness in the wafer fabrication equipment market, slower technology migration, alternative technologies, and further tightening of export controls on China.

• Advantest Corp（6857.JP）

  Its system-level chip tester revenue is highly correlated with Taiwan tester import data.

  Strengths

  It benefits over the long term from test demand for artificial intelligence chips, graphics processors, and high-bandwidth memory; Bernstein rates it “Outperform.”

  Weaknesses

  July tester imports declined 14% YoY and 21% MoM, and the model forecasts Taiwan sales for the quarter to decline 6% QoQ.

  Comparison

  The revenue forecast is weaker than the 11% QoQ total revenue growth implied by consensus expectations; the target price is ¥45,800.

  Risks

  Changes in artificial intelligence-related end demand, changes in the competitive environment, and exchange-rate fluctuations may affect earnings and valuation multiples.

• Tokyo Electron Ltd（8035.JP）

  Imports of equipment such as deposition, dry etch, cleaning, coating/developing, and rapid thermal processing have relatively high directional correlation with its Taiwan revenue.

  Strengths

  Imports in related categories increased 80% YoY, and the three-month moving average increased 5% MoM; Bernstein rates it “Outperform.”

  Weaknesses

  Single-month imports declined 30% MoM, and the model forecasts Taiwan sales for the quarter to decline 13% QoQ.

  Comparison

  The forecast direction is weaker than the 18% QoQ total sales growth implied by consensus expectations; the target price is ¥79,300.

  Risks

  Changes in U.S. trade restrictions, slowing global logic and memory semiconductor demand, capital expenditure cuts, and adverse exchange-rate movements.

• Screen Holdings Co Ltd（7735.JP）

  Taiwan cleaning equipment imports can serve as a directional proxy for its Taiwan revenue.

  Strengths

  Cleaning equipment imports increased 51% YoY, and the three-month moving average increased 5% MoM; higher penetration of direct imaging and wet etch may provide upside.

  Weaknesses

  July imports declined 32% MoM, and because source-country breakdowns are lacking, the correlation between import data and company revenue is weaker.

  Comparison

  The model forecasts Taiwan revenue for the quarter to be flat QoQ, weaker than the 60% QoQ semiconductor equipment sales growth implied by consensus expectations; it is rated “Market-Perform,” with a target price of ¥15,000.

  Risks

  China investment peaking, accelerated domestic substitution, changes in the competitive environment, and adverse exchange-rate movements.

Key data

• July Taiwan semiconductor equipment importsUSD 5.0 billionUp 40% YoY and down 22% MoM.
• July semiconductor equipment imports from JapanUSD 884 millionUp 54% YoY and down 24% MoM.
• Overall import three-month moving averageUp 1% MoMData from both global and Japanese sources increased 1% MoM.
• July tester importsUSD 507 millionCombined imports from Japan and Malaysia declined 14% YoY and 21% MoM, and the three-month moving average declined 4% MoM.
• Advantest Taiwan revenue forecastDown 6% QoQBelow the 11% QoQ total revenue growth implied by consensus expectations.
• July lithography equipment importsEUR 554 millionUp 86% YoY and down 54% MoM; the first month of the quarter typically has seasonally weaker characteristics.
• ASML third-quarter Taiwan system sales forecastEUR 1.69 billionUp 1% YoY and down 14% QoQ, expected to account for 19% of third-quarter system sales.
• ASML third-quarter system sales forecastApproximately EUR 8.80 billionTaiwan sales contribution is expected to decline to 19% from 30% in both the previous quarter and the same period last year.
• Tokyo Electron-related equipment importsUp 80% YoYDown 30% MoM for the single month, while the three-month moving average increased 5% MoM.
• Tokyo Electron Taiwan revenue forecastDown 13% QoQWeaker than the 18% QoQ total sales growth implied by consensus expectations.
• July cleaning equipment importsUSD 125 millionUp 51% YoY and down 32% MoM, while the three-month moving average increased 5% MoM.
• Screen Taiwan revenue forecastFlat QoQWeaker than the 60% QoQ semiconductor equipment sales growth implied by consensus expectations.

Impact & implications

The high YoY growth rate in import data indicates that Taiwan advanced process and foundry capacity expansion continues to support global equipment demand, benefiting medium-term orders and valuations for Japanese and European semiconductor equipment makers. In the near term, the MoM decline in July and Taiwan revenue forecasts for multiple companies that are weaker than market expectations may increase quarterly earnings volatility and the risk of downward expectation revisions. ASML's lithography demand trend is relatively stronger, but its Taiwan sales contribution is expected to decline notably; Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Screen need import recovery in subsequent months to validate the market's optimistic expectations for quarterly growth.

Risks

• Monthly import data have significant delivery-timing and seasonal volatility, and single-month regression results may not accurately represent full-quarter revenue.
• Some equipment categories lack data broken down by source country, which may weaken the correspondence between import value and specific supplier revenue.
• A slowdown in global logic and memory semiconductor demand may lead fabs to cut capital expenditure and capacity expansion.
• Further tightening of export controls on China by the United States and other regions may affect orders and revenue for Japanese and European equipment makers.
• Accelerated substitution by domestic Chinese equipment and intensifying competition may pressure market share, prices, and margins.
• Fluctuations in the euro, U.S. dollar, and yen exchange rates may affect revenue translation, profitability, and target prices.
• End demand for artificial intelligence, graphics processors, and high-bandwidth memory falling short of expectations may affect test equipment demand and valuation.
• Commercialization costs for EUV and subsequent-generation equipment being higher than expected may pressure ASML's margins.

What to watch

• Whether Taiwan semiconductor equipment import data for August and September 2026 can reverse July's MoM decline.
• TSMC advanced process and capacity expansion progress, and its transmission to orders for lithography, etch, deposition, cleaning, and test equipment.
• Whether ASML's third-quarter Taiwan system sales can reach EUR 1.69 billion and whether total system sales can reach approximately EUR 8.80 billion.
• Differences between actual quarterly Taiwan revenue for Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Screen and regression forecasts and consensus expectations.
• Whether the three-month moving averages of equipment imports from global and Japanese sources can continue to maintain positive growth.
• Semiconductor equipment export restrictions on China, the pace of China's domestic substitution, and changes in major currency exchange rates.