Taiwan's June SPE imports rose 58% YoY, continuing to validate the strength of equipment demand driven by advanced-node capacity expansion

Overview

This report tracks Taiwan's semiconductor equipment import data for June 2026 and focuses on the implications of Taiwan foundry capital expenditures for the revenues of Japanese and European semiconductor equipment companies. It points out that Taiwan's June SPE imports rebounded strongly both year over year and month over month, indicating that capacity expansion by TSMC and other Taiwanese foundries continues to drive equipment demand.

Core views

The core view is that Taiwan semiconductor equipment import data continues to support a positive stance on Japanese and European SPE companies. Overall SPE imports rose 58% YoY and 46% MoM, while imports from Japan rose 44% YoY and 67% MoM. At the company level, ASML has the strongest momentum in Taiwan lithography demand, while Screen also shows upside relative to consensus expectations; Advantest has a slightly positive reading, whereas TEL's strong monthly imports contrast with a weaker regression result relative to consensus expectations.

Analysis framework

The report maps semiconductor equipment import data published by Taiwan's Ministry of Finance by equipment category to the relevant companies' revenue exposure, and uses monthly or three-month moving-average import data to conduct regression analyses against company sales in Taiwan. For ASML, it examines the correlation between Taiwan's three-month lithography imports and Taiwan system sales; for Advantest, tester imports; for TEL, aggregate related WFE categories including CVD, dry etch, cleaning, coat/develop and RTP; and for Screen, cleaning equipment imports.

Methodology notes

• Data trackingTaiwan import-data business-cycle tracking

  Use the value of Taiwan semiconductor equipment imports as a high-frequency proxy for equipment makers' Taiwan revenue.

  Taiwan import data is released frequently and can provide an early indication of fab equipment deliveries and capital expenditure intensity. However, monthly data can be volatile, so the report also examines single-month YoY and MoM changes as well as three-month moving averages.

• Quantitative relationshipRegression of import data against company revenue

  Regress imports of specific equipment categories against company sales in Taiwan to estimate quarterly revenue changes.

  The report uses the correlation between equipment categories and companies' revenue exposure to estimate quarterly Taiwan sales. For example, the R² between ASML's three-month Taiwan lithography imports and Taiwan system sales is 81%.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ASML Holding NV

  Taiwan lithography equipment imports are highly correlated with ASML's Taiwan system sales and serve as a high-correlation proxy indicator.

  Strengths

  Taiwan's June lithography imports reached €1.2bn, up 120% MoM and 44% YoY; second-quarter imports were €2.62bn, with regression-estimated Taiwan system sales of €2.66bn.

  Weaknesses

  Monthly import data is volatile, and there may be a time lag between import arrivals and revenue recognition.

  Comparison

  Relative to the other companies covered, ASML has the strongest Taiwan sales regression signal, with estimated second-quarter Taiwan system sales at the second-highest level on record.

  Risks

  Higher-than-expected EUV commercialization costs, a reversal of excess inventory by Chinese customers, a weaker-than-expected WFE market, slower technology migration, and further tightening of export controls on China.

• Advantest Corp

  Taiwan tester imports are highly correlated with Advantest's SoC tester revenue.

  Strengths

  June tester imports rose 4% MoM and 6% YoY, with regression-estimated JunQ Taiwan sales up 5% MoM.

  Weaknesses

  The three-month average declined 6% MoM, indicating weaker momentum than the single-month data suggests.

  Comparison

  The regression result is slightly above the consensus expectation of 2% MoM growth in JunQ revenue.

  Risks

  Fluctuations in end demand for AI-related GPUs and HBM, changes in the competitive environment, and currency volatility.

• Tokyo Electron Ltd

  Taiwan import categories including CVD, dry etch, cleaning, coat/develop and RTP are used to track TEL's Taiwan revenue.

  Strengths

  June imports in related categories rose 57% MoM and 107% YoY, while the three-month moving average rose 6% MoM.

  Weaknesses

  Some categories are not disclosed by country by the Ministry of Finance, making the mapping imperfect; regression-estimated JunQ Taiwan sales declined 1% MoM.

  Comparison

  Despite strong monthly imports, the regression result was below the consensus expectation of 8% MoM growth and weaker than those for ASML and Screen.

  Risks

  Adverse changes in US trade restrictions affecting Chinese and global semiconductor capital expenditures, a slowdown in global logic and memory demand, and unfavorable currency movements.

• Screen Holdings Co Ltd

  Taiwan cleaning equipment imports are used to track Screen's Taiwan revenue.

  Strengths

  June cleaning equipment imports rose 37% MoM and 58% YoY, the three-month moving average rose 3% MoM, and regression-estimated JunQ Taiwan sales increased 16% MoM.

  Weaknesses

  Cleaning equipment imports lack complete country-level data, and their correlation is weaker than that of some other equipment categories.

  Comparison

  The regression result was significantly better than the consensus expectation of a 14% MoM decline, representing the most significant improvement relative to expectations in this report.

  Risks

  Demand weaker than expected due to a peak in Chinese investment, accelerated local substitution in China, and unfavorable currency movements; upside risks include stronger-than-expected adoption of direct patterning and wet etch, further weakening of the competitive environment, and favorable currency movements.

Key data

• Taiwan June SPE imports$6.4bnUp 46% MoM and 58% YoY globally.
• Taiwan June SPE imports from Japan$1,165mnUp 67% MoM and 44% YoY.
• Taiwan June tester imports$638mnCombined imports from Japan and Malaysia rose 4% MoM and 6% YoY.
• Taiwan June lithography equipment imports€1.2bnUp 120% MoM and 44% YoY, the third-highest monthly level on record.
• Taiwan second-quarter lithography equipment imports€2.62bnUp approximately 80% MoM.
• Regression estimate of ASML Taiwan second-quarter system sales€2.66bnUp 84% MoM and 36% YoY, or approximately 42% of total system sales.
• TEL-related category imports in June+57% MoM / +107% YoYThree-month moving average rose 6% MoM, but regression-estimated JunQ Taiwan sales declined 1% MoM.
• Screen cleaning equipment imports in June+37% MoM / +58% YoYThree-month moving average rose 3% MoM, with regression-estimated JunQ Taiwan sales up 16% MoM.

Impact & implications

The data is moderately positive: Taiwanese foundry capacity expansion continues to drive equipment imports, particularly benefiting companies exposed to lithography and cleaning equipment. ASML's strong Taiwan lithography demand points to substantial growth in second-quarter Taiwan system sales, while Screen's recovery in cleaning equipment imports indicates significant upside relative to consensus expectations. Advantest's reading is slightly positive. TEL's monthly imports were strong, but the quarterly regression result was below consensus expectations, suggesting that the market may need to distinguish between monthly momentum and quarterly revenue realization.

Risks

• Monthly Taiwan import data is highly volatile, and strong single-month growth may not fully translate into revenue in the same quarter.
• Some equipment categories cannot be completely disaggregated by country, which may reduce the accuracy of company revenue mapping.
• A slowdown in global semiconductor capital expenditures would weaken order and revenue momentum for Japanese and European SPE companies.
• Further tightening of export controls on China could affect demand for equipment makers such as ASML and TEL.
• Currency volatility could affect Japanese equipment makers' earnings and target-price assumptions.
• Accelerated substitution by domestic Chinese semiconductor equipment makers could pressure the long-term market share of some equipment companies.

What to watch

• Whether Taiwan's subsequent monthly SPE imports sustain high YoY growth and MoM recovery.
• Whether lithography imports remain at elevated levels and whether ASML's Taiwan system sales materialize in line with the regression estimate.
• Whether the three-month moving average of tester imports can shift from decline to sustained improvement.
• Whether strong monthly TEL-related WFE imports translate into quarterly revenue upgrades.
• Whether the recovery in Screen cleaning equipment imports continues and leads to upward consensus revisions.
• The pace of TSMC capacity expansion, advanced-node capital expenditures, and changes in export-control policies.