Taiwan Semiconductor Equipment Imports Accelerate YoY, ASML Lithography Demand Remains Strong

Overview

Based on Taiwan's Ministry of Finance semiconductor equipment import data for July 2026, Bernstein tracks business trends in Taiwan for major Japanese and European equipment makers. Overall imports increased significantly YoY, reflecting still-strong capital expenditures by Taiwan foundries; however, imports declined MoM and monthly data are volatile, with different equipment categories sending divergent signals for companies' current-quarter revenue.

Core views

At the industry level, Taiwan's semiconductor equipment imports grew 40% YoY, and imports from Japan grew 54% YoY, supporting a positive view on the Japan and Europe semiconductor equipment sector. At the company level, ASML benefits from TSMC capacity expansion, with strong YoY momentum in lithography demand; however, the model estimates its third-quarter Taiwan system sales will decline 14% QoQ. Import data for test equipment, Tokyo Electron-related wafer fabrication equipment, and Screen cleaning equipment point respectively to risks that Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Screen quarterly Taiwan revenue could be below market consensus.

Analysis framework

The report aggregates Taiwan monthly customs import data by equipment categories such as test, lithography, deposition, etch, cleaning, coater/developer, and rapid thermal processing. It uses single-month data, three-month moving averages, and historical correlations to assess trends, then estimates each company's quarterly Taiwan revenue through regression models and compares it with market consensus.

Methodology notes

• Data trackingSemiconductor equipment import tracking

  Use Taiwan equipment imports as a high-frequency proxy for suppliers' local revenue

  Monthly import data are organized by equipment category and origin to observe changes in fab capital expenditure and revenue of major equipment suppliers.

• Trend analysisThree-month moving average

  Smooth delivery volatility and seasonality in monthly import data

  The report observes single-month MoM, YoY, and three-month moving averages simultaneously to reduce the interference of first-month seasonality and concentrated equipment deliveries on judgment.

• Quantitative forecastingImport data regression model

  Use the historical correlation between import value and company Taiwan sales to forecast quarterly revenue

  The model separately estimates quarterly Taiwan sales for Advantest, ASML, Tokyo Electron, and Screen; for ASML, the R-squared between single-month lithography imports and local system sales is 53%.

• Valuation methodsForward P/E valuation

  Apply a target P/E based on earnings per share for the fifth to eighth future quarters

  ASML uses a 40x forward P/E to derive a EUR 2,500 target price, which is converted into a U.S.-listed target price of USD 2,859 based on the EUR/USD exchange rate.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ASML HOLDING NV (US.ASML/ASML.NA)

  Taiwan lithography equipment imports have a moderate correlation with ASML's local system sales and are a key focus of the report.

  Strengths

  TSMC capacity expansion drives lithography demand, with July lithography equipment imports up 86% YoY; Bernstein maintains an Outperform rating.

  Weaknesses

  Monthly import data are highly volatile, and the model estimates third-quarter Taiwan system sales will decline 14% QoQ.

  Comparison

  Compared with test and cleaning equipment, lithography equipment has stronger YoY momentum; Taiwan sales as a percentage of ASML system sales are expected to fall from 30% to 19%.

  Risks

  Higher-than-expected EUV commercialization costs, equipment stockpiling in China, weak global wafer fabrication equipment demand, slower technology migration, alternative technologies, and tighter export controls to China.

• Advantest Corp (6857.JP)

  Taiwan test equipment imports are highly correlated with its system-on-chip tester revenue.

  Strengths

  AI, GPU, and HBM-related test demand constitutes a long-term growth driver; Bernstein maintains an Outperform rating.

  Weaknesses

  July test equipment imports fell 21% MoM and 14% YoY, and the model estimates quarterly Taiwan sales will decline 6% QoQ.

  Comparison

  Its forecast trend is weaker than the 11% QoQ growth in quarterly revenue implied by market consensus.

  Risks

  Fluctuations in AI end-demand, changes in the competitive landscape, and exchange-rate volatility.

• Tokyo Electron Ltd (8035.JP)

  Import categories such as deposition, dry etch, cleaning, coater/developer, and rapid thermal processing are related to its Taiwan revenue.

  Strengths

  Related equipment imports increased 80% YoY, and the three-month moving average increased 5% MoM; Bernstein maintains an Outperform rating.

  Weaknesses

  Single-month imports fell 30% MoM, and the model estimates quarterly Taiwan sales will decline 13% QoQ.

  Comparison

  The model forecast is weaker than the 18% QoQ growth in company-wide sales implied by market consensus.

  Risks

  Changes in U.S. trade restrictions, slowing global logic and memory demand, capital expenditure cuts, and adverse exchange-rate movements.

• Screen Holdings Co Ltd (7735.JP)

  Taiwan cleaning equipment imports have a directional correlation with its local revenue.

  Strengths

  Cleaning equipment imports increased 51% YoY, and the three-month moving average increased 5% MoM.

  Weaknesses

  July imports fell 32% MoM, and data split by country of origin are unavailable, making the correlation weaker than for other equipment categories.

  Comparison

  The model estimates quarterly Taiwan sales will be flat QoQ, significantly weaker than the 60% QoQ growth in company-wide sales implied by market consensus; the rating is Market-Perform.

  Risks

  Peaking of China's investment cycle, accelerating local substitution, changes in the competitive environment, and adverse exchange-rate movements.

Key data

• Taiwan July semiconductor equipment importsUSD 5.0 billionUp 40% YoY and down 22% MoM; the three-month moving average increased 1% MoM.
• Taiwan semiconductor equipment imports from JapanUSD 884 millionUp 54% YoY and down 24% MoM; the three-month moving average increased 1% MoM.
• July test equipment importsUSD 507 millionCombined imports from Japan and Malaysia fell 21% MoM and 14% YoY, with the three-month moving average down 4% MoM.
• Advantest quarterly Taiwan sales forecastDown 6% QoQBelow the 11% QoQ increase in company-wide quarterly revenue implied by market consensus.
• July lithography equipment importsEUR 554 millionDown 54% MoM and up 86% YoY; the first month of a quarter typically has seasonally weaker characteristics.
• ASML third-quarter Taiwan system sales forecastEUR 1.69 billionUp 1% YoY and down 14% QoQ, expected to account for 19% of the company's third-quarter system sales.
• ASML third-quarter system sales forecastApproximately EUR 8.80 billionTaiwan sales are expected to decline to 19% of system sales from 30% in the prior quarter and the same period last year.
• Tokyo Electron quarterly Taiwan sales forecastDown 13% QoQThe three-month moving average of related equipment imports increased 5% MoM, but the model result is below the 18% QoQ increase in overall sales implied by market consensus.
• Screen quarterly Taiwan sales forecastFlat QoQJuly cleaning equipment imports fell 32% MoM and rose 51% YoY, and the model result is below the 60% QoQ increase in overall sales implied by market consensus.

Impact & implications

High YoY growth in imports indicates that Taiwan advanced process and capacity expansion are still driving equipment demand, supporting the medium- to long-term fundamentals of ASML and Japanese equipment makers. However, the MoM decline in monthly imports and regression forecasts across equipment categories suggest strong industry demand may not translate synchronously into current-quarter revenue upside for all companies. Investors should distinguish between long-term capital expenditure trends and short-term delivery cadence, and monitor the risk of downward revisions to market consensus.

Risks

• Monthly customs import data are subject to concentrated deliveries, seasonality, and differences in recognition timing, and may not accurately map to companies' quarterly revenue.
• Some equipment categories lack data split by country of origin, reducing the reliability of company-level attribution and regression forecasts.
• Global semiconductor demand or fab capital expenditure may be below expectations, potentially weakening equipment orders and revenue growth.
• Further tightening of export controls to China by the United States and other regions may restrict the serviceable market of major equipment makers.
• Accelerated localization and substitution of Chinese equipment may intensify competition and reduce overseas suppliers' share.
• Fluctuations in the yen, euro, and U.S. dollar exchange rates may affect revenue, profit, and target price conversion.
• Fluctuations in AI, GPU, and HBM demand may affect test equipment demand and the valuation levels of related companies.

What to watch

• Whether Taiwan semiconductor equipment imports can continue high YoY growth and return to MoM growth in subsequent months.
• TSMC advanced process and capacity expansion progress, as well as lithography equipment delivery cadence.
• Whether ASML third-quarter Taiwan system sales can reach EUR 1.69 billion and total system sales EUR 8.80 billion.
• Whether Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Screen quarterly results see downward revisions relative to market consensus.
• Whether trends in the three-month moving average and single-month import data reconverge.
• Restrictions on semiconductor equipment exports to China and progress in domestic Chinese equipment substitution.