Taiwan's May Semiconductor Equipment Imports Up 23% YoY; Advantest and ASML Benefit

Overview

This report analyzes the impact of Taiwan Ministry of Finance's May 2026 semiconductor equipment import data on the revenue of covered semiconductor equipment companies. Key conclusions show that strong capital expenditure by Taiwan foundries continues to drive YoY growth in equipment imports. The overall environment supports a positive outlook for Japan and EU semiconductor equipment stocks, though individual performance varies: Advantest and ASML show strong data performance, while TEL faces short-term pressure.

Core views

Overall import data remains strongly growing. Taiwan's May semiconductor equipment imports rose 23% YoY globally, with a 6% increase from Japan. Although there was a monthly decline (global -8%, Japan -17%), the 3-month moving average shows growth of 10% globally and 6% in Japan, indicating that the growth trend remains solid. This is mainly driven by continued capacity expansion by Taiwan foundries. Advantest benefits from a rebound in tester imports. Tester imports from Japan and Malaysia increased 7% MoM and 34% YoM in May. Based on regression analysis, institutions estimate Advantest's June quarter Taiwan sales will rise 6% MoM, slightly above the market consensus of 3%, presenting a small upside surprise. ASML lithography demand accelerates. Lithography imports amounted to €5.43 billion in May, falling 38% MoM but rising 21% YoY. Imports in the first two months of the quarter (April-May) grew approximately 80% MoM, driven primarily by strong April imports. Regression models estimate ASML's Q2 Taiwan system sales at €2.33 billion, a significant 61% MoM increase and 19% YoY increase. Taiwan is expected to account for 37% of its total system sales. Tokyo Electron (TEL) faces short-term downward pressure. Related equipment imports fell 19% MoM in May, up 7% YoY. Regression analysis indicates TEL's June quarter Taiwan sales are expected to decline 24% MoM, significantly below the market consensus flat expectation, presenting downside risks. Screen cleaning equipment recovers, meeting expectations. Taiwan cleaning equipment imports rose 11% MoM and 14% YoY. Institutions estimate Screen's June quarter Taiwan sales to decline 11% MoM, consistent with market consensus.

Analysis framework

Institutions use a combination of high-frequency data tracking and regression analysis. First, Taiwan semiconductor equipment import data is selected as a high-frequency proxy for industry capital expenditure because Taiwan is a global hub for semiconductor manufacturing, and its equipment procurement directly reflects downstream wafer fab expansion plans. Second, regression models are built using historical data to correlate import values with company-specific regional sales (e.g., ASML Taiwan sales and Taiwan lithography imports showed an R² of 75%), converting macro import data into micro-level revenue forecasts. Finally, by comparing model predictions with market consensus, the probability of earnings beating or missing expectations for individual stocks is assessed.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission Chain

  Upstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission Chain

  Tracks equipment procurement data from downstream wafer fabs (e.g., TSMC via Taiwan imports) to forecast revenue changes for upstream equipment manufacturers (e.g., ASML, Advantest), utilizing transmission chain logic for high-frequency tracking.

• Quantitative/Factor/Portfolio Theory

  Revenue Forecast via Regression Analysis

  Uses statistical regression models based on historical data to link import values with company sales, projecting future revenues from current import data and calculating correlation coefficients (e.g., R²) to evaluate prediction reliability.

• Quantitative/Factor/Portfolio Theory

  Smoothing Volatility via Moving Averages

  Employs a 3-month moving average to smooth out sharp fluctuations in single-month import data, enabling clearer identification of long-term industry capital expenditure trends and avoiding misleading signals from single-month outliers.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Advantest (6857.JP)

  Beneficiary: Strong tester import data, sales estimates above consensus

  Strengths

  Tester imports up +7% MoM, regression predicts sales up +6% MoM

  Comparison

  Earnings expectations better than TEL and Screen

  Risks

  Fluctuations in terminal demand for AI-related production (GPU, HBM), changing competitive landscape, exchange rate fluctuations

• ASML (ASML)

  Beneficiary: Significant MoM increase in lithography imports for the first two months of the quarter, sales estimates significantly revised upward

  Strengths

  Q2 Taiwan sales estimated up +61% MoM, accounting for 37% of total sales

  Comparison

  Strongest growth momentum, significant share increase

  Risks

  Lower-than-expected margins, excessive inventory in China, weak WFE market, tightening export controls

• Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)

  Adversely Affected: Related equipment imports declined MoM, sales estimates below consensus

  Weaknesses

  June quarter Taiwan sales estimated down -24% MoM, significantly below consensus

  Comparison

  Short-term performance weaker than Advantest and ASML

  Risks

  US trade restrictions, slowdown in global semiconductor demand, adverse exchange rate movements

• Screen Holdings (7735.JP)

  Neutral: Cleaning equipment imports recovering, sales estimates in line with consensus

  Strengths

  Cleaning equipment imports up +11% MoM

  Weaknesses

  Sales estimates down -11% MoM, no upside surprise

  Comparison

  Stable performance, no significant surprises

  Risks

  Peak in Chinese investment, acceleration of domestic substitution in China, adverse exchange rate movements

Key data

• Taiwan May SPE Imports YoY (Global)+23%Indicates strong overall capital expenditure
• Taiwan May SPE Imports YoY (Japan)+6%Beneficial for Japanese equipment suppliers
• Advantest June Quarter Taiwan Sales Estimate+6% QoQAbove consensus of +3%
• ASML Q2 Taiwan System Sales Estimate€2.33 billionMoM +61%, YoY +19%
• TEL June Quarter Taiwan Sales Estimate-24% QoQBelow consensus flat expectation
• Screen June Quarter Taiwan Sales Estimate-11% QoQIn line with consensus

Impact & implications

The report argues that the strong performance of Taiwan import data validates the continuity of capital expenditure at the semiconductor manufacturing level, constituting direct利好 for upstream equipment suppliers. Particularly, data on ASML and Advantest suggests potential upside surprises in Q2 earnings, supporting their Outperform ratings. Conversely, the downward revision for TEL warns investors to be cautious about its short-term earnings volatility. Overall, the data supports the institution's positive view on Japan and EU semiconductor equipment stocks, though individual stock divergence needs attention.

Risks

• Fluctuations in terminal demand for AI-related production (e.g., GPU, HBM) leading to valuation and earnings volatility
• Global semiconductor demand slowdown triggering reduced capital expenditure
• Changes in US trade restrictions affecting capital expenditure in China and globally
• Exchange rate fluctuations posing downside risks to the overall Japanese market
• ASML commercialization costs exceeding expectations or technology migration slowing
• Accelerated domestic equipment substitution in China

What to watch

• Continuity of subsequent monthly Taiwan semiconductor equipment import data
• Verification of actual Q2 revenues versus regression predictions for each company
• Impact of TSMC capacity expansion progress on lithography demand
• Further changes in US export control policies targeting China