South Korea’s May Semiconductor Equipment Imports Surge 51% YoY, Suggesting Better-than-Expected Results for ASML and Advantest

Overview

This report is Bernstein’s global semiconductor industry data-tracking study, primarily based on May 2026 semiconductor production equipment (SPE) import data released by the Korea Customs Service. The report highlights robust growth in South Korean semiconductor equipment imports, with a 51% year-over-year increase and accelerated year-to-date growth to 39%. Using regression analysis, the firm mapped import data onto projected sales revenues for major equipment suppliers (ASML, Advantest, Tokyo Electron) in the South Korean market, finding that strong imports of lithography and memory test equipment bode well for ASML and Advantest’s near-term performance, while weak Japanese equipment imports weigh on Tokyo Electron. The report maintains an Outperform rating for these equipment suppliers as well as South Korean memory giants (Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix).

Core views

Overall imports remain strong, driven notably by memory capacity expansions. In May, South Korea’s total semiconductor equipment imports reached $3.2 billion, down slightly by 5% month over month but up sharply by 51% year over year. Year-to-date growth has accelerated from 37% in April to 39%. Japanese equipment imports grew 40% year over year but fell 7% month over month. This robust trend is largely fueled by meaningful DRAM capacity expansions and rapid adoption of the 1c node, which requires higher lithographic intensity. ASML: Lithography imports point to sustained strong momentum. In May, South Korea imported €928 million worth of fab equipment from the Netherlands, up 28% month over month and roughly 150% year over year—marking the second-highest quarterly level in history. Based on regression modeling, the firm estimates ASML’s second-quarter system sales in South Korea at approximately €2.31 billion, down 18% quarter over quarter compared to the record first-quarter level but more than doubling year over year. This implies that the South Korean market will account for about 37% of ASML’s global system sales in Q2, supporting continued revenue momentum in the memory segment. Advantest: Test equipment imports surge, presenting significant upside risk. South Korean test equipment import data closely correlates with Advantest’s memory test equipment sales. In May, imports of test equipment from Japan and Malaysia rose 5% month over month and soared 103% year over year. Regression analysis projects Advantest’s second-quarter sales in South Korea to grow 84% quarter over quarter, whereas market consensus expects only a 3% quarter-over-quarter increase in overall company revenue. Thus, South Korean import data suggests substantial upside potential for Advantest’s Q2 results. Tokyo Electron: Japanese equipment imports decline, putting pressure on performance. South Korean imports of TEL’s core product lines—including CVD, dry etching, and cleaning—rose 52% year over year in May but dropped 27% month over month. A three-month moving average shows a 2% month-over-month decline. Regression models project Tokyo Electron’s second-quarter sales in South Korea to fall 15% quarter over quarter, while market consensus anticipates flat performance. This indicates Tokyo Electron’s near-term results may underperform market expectations. Samsung and SK Hynix: Capital expenditures poised for recovery. Historical correlations show strong directional links between South Korean equipment import data and the combined capital expenditures (Capex) of Samsung and SK Hynix. Despite rising equipment imports, both companies reported a quarter-over-quarter decline in Capex during Q1 2026, mainly due to seasonal factors and early allocation of certain infrastructure investments to Q4 2025. Given both firms’ guidance for substantial increases in Capex in 2026, the firm expects future spending to rebound—and potentially outpace current import growth rates.

Analysis framework

This report employs a typical ‘high-frequency data tracking plus regression mapping’ analytical approach. First, the firm selects monthly semiconductor equipment import data published by Korean customs as a high-frequency proxy indicator, since South Korea is a major global base for memory chip production, and its equipment procurement directly reflects the capital expenditure intentions of global memory giants. Second, the firm builds historical regression models correlating specific countries’ (e.g., the Netherlands, Japan, Malaysia) equipment import values with corresponding equipment suppliers’ (ASML, TEL, Advantest) sales revenues in South Korea, using statistical metrics like R-squared to validate correlations. Finally, the latest May import data are fed into these models to estimate each company’s projected second-quarter revenues, which are then compared against market consensus to assess risks of beating or missing expectations. At its core, this method leverages publicly available, high-frequency customs data to anticipate lower-frequency corporate earnings disclosures, capturing discrepancies in market expectations.

Methodology notes

• industry/sector analysis frameworkupstream–midstream–downstream transmission

  using upstream equipment import data to forecast midstream manufacturing capital expenditures and downstream equipment vendor performance

  In the semiconductor industry, fab equipment purchases by companies like Samsung and SK Hynix serve as leading indicators of equipment vendors’ (such as ASML and TEL) revenue. By tracking South Korean customs equipment import data, one can anticipate equipment vendors’ quarterly revenue trends, illustrating the data transmission logic across the supply chain.

• quantitative/factor/portfolio theory

  regression analysis mapping model

  The firm uses linear regression models to establish mathematical relationships between historical equipment import amounts and equipment vendors’ regional sales revenues (e.g., R² = 0.81), enabling quantitative estimation of undisclosed quarterly revenues based on the latest import data—a common quantitative forecasting technique.

• event博弈 and behavioral financeexpectation gap/expectation management

  identifying performance expectation gaps through high-frequency data

  By comparing model-predicted revenue growth rates with market consensus expectations (e.g., Advantest’s model predicting +84% vs. consensus +3%), one can pinpoint opportunities for potential outperformance or underperformance—this forms the core logic behind seeking alpha returns.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ASML (ASML.US/ASML.NA)

  Benefit: Strong surge in Dutch lithography equipment imports predicts a year-over-year doubling of sales in South Korea

  Strengths

  Dominant position in advanced processes and DRAM capacity expansion, high lithographic intensity

  Weaknesses

  -

  Comparison

  Stronger growth momentum in South Korea compared to TEL

  Risks

  High EUV commercialization costs, excess inventory in China, tightening export controls

• Advantest (6857.JP)

  Benefit: Test equipment imports surged 103% year over year, suggesting a significant upside in second-quarter revenue

  Strengths

  Strong correlation with memory test equipment demand, benefiting from HBM and AI needs

  Weaknesses

  -

  Comparison

  Higher potential for revenue upside than TEL

  Risks

  Fluctuating AI terminal demand, changing competitive landscape, currency volatility

• Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)

  Detriment: Japanese equipment imports declined month over month, indicating a 15% quarter-over-quarter drop in second-quarter revenue

  Strengths

  -

  Weaknesses

  Short-term slowdown in South Korean market demand, product mix affected by fluctuating etching/CVD needs

  Comparison

  Weaker short-term performance compared to ASML and Advantest

  Risks

  U.S. trade restrictions, slowing global semiconductor demand, unfavorable exchange rates

• Samsung Electronics (005930.KS)

  Benefit: Strong equipment imports signal upcoming recovery in capital expenditures, supporting DRAM capacity expansion

  Strengths

  Leading memory player, increasing capital expenditure guidance

  Weaknesses

  Seasonal decline in Q1 Capex

  Comparison

  Jointly driving South Korean equipment imports alongside SK Hynix

  Risks

  Early end of favorable pricing environment, progress in Chinese NAND, investor sentiment fluctuations

• SK Hynix (000660.KS)

  Benefit: Strong equipment imports suggest imminent recovery in capital expenditures, supporting DRAM capacity expansion

  Strengths

  Leader in HBM and advanced DRAM nodes

  Weaknesses

  Seasonal decline in Q1 Capex

  Comparison

  Driving South Korean equipment imports alongside Samsung

  Risks

  Early end of favorable pricing environment, progress in Chinese NAND, investor sentiment fluctuations

Key data

• South Korea’s May semiconductor equipment overall import year-over-year growth rate+51%Year-to-date growth has accelerated to 39%
• South Korea’s May import value of WFE equipment from the Netherlands€928 millionUp 28% month over month and roughly 150% year over year—second-highest quarterly level in history
• ASML’s projected second-quarter system sales in South Korea~€2.31 billionDown 18% quarter over quarter but more than doubling year over year; accounting for about 37% of global sales
• South Korea’s May test equipment import year-over-year growth rate+103%Up 5% month over month
• Advantest’s projected second-quarter sales growth rate in South Korea+84%Far above the market consensus of +3% for overall company revenue
• TEL’s projected second-quarter sales growth rate in South Korea-15%Below the market consensus expectation of flat performance

Impact & implications

The report concludes that robust South Korean equipment import data confirm the ongoing expansion of global memory chip capacity—particularly DRAM—which provides substantial benefits to upstream equipment suppliers. Specifically, ASML and Advantest stand to gain directly from South Korean memory giants’ capital expenditures, with their second-quarter results likely to significantly exceed conservative market expectations, bolstering stock performance. Conversely, Tokyo Electron faces short-term risks of underperforming due to its reliance on Japanese equipment imports and product mix. For Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, although Q1 Capex declined seasonally, strong import data suggest a robust recovery in subsequent capital spending, reinforcing their leadership positions in the memory market and advancing key technology nodes such as the 1c node.

Risks

• ASML: Lower-than-expected profit margins, excessive inventory in China, weakening global WFE market, slower technology migration, tightening export controls.
• Advantest: Fluctuating terminal demand for AI-related products (GPU/HBM), changing competitive landscape, currency volatility.
• Tokyo Electron: Unfavorable U.S. trade restrictions, slowing global semiconductor demand reducing capital expenditures, adverse yen exchange rates.
• Samsung/SK Hynix: Early end of favorable pricing environment (weakening demand or increased supply), volatile investor sentiment, advances in Chinese storage (especially NAND).

What to watch

• Whether Samsung and SK Hynix’s actual capital expenditure execution in subsequent quarters matches import data trends
• Whether ASML and Advantest’s second-quarter financial reports confirm revenue recognition in South Korea consistent with model predictions
• Whether Tokyo Electron’s second-quarter revenue shows the expected quarter-over-quarter decline
• Trends in DRAM prices and progress in adopting the 1c node